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This Month's Featured Article Moderna Pops 17%—Is There Life in MRNA, Down 90% from COVID High?Written by Leo Miller. Date Posted: 1/20/2026. 
Summary - Moderna was one of the top vaccine providers during the pandemic, generating +$7 billion in sales one quarter.
- Shares are now down more than 90% from their high, following the path of COVID-19 vaccine sales.
- However, Moderna just posted its biggest gain in over three years after updating its guidance. Does the stock have real rebound potential?
In a blast from the past, COVID-19 vaccine developer Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) made headlines in 2026 when shares jumped more than 17% on Jan. 13 — its biggest single-day gain in over three years. Moderna shares have fallen sharply as COVID-19's relevance has waned. Trading near $42 per share as of Jan. 20, the stock remains down more than 90% from its all-time high — even after the recent bounce. SpaceX just announced it is rapidly repositioning 4,400 Starlink satellites into lower Earth orbit. While the official explanation points to safety and debris concerns, the move comes days after China labeled Starlink a national security threat, raising serious questions about what's really happening behind the scenes.
If this escalation in space is an early warning signal, most investors won't react until markets already feel the impact. One analyst has updated his playbook for how to protect capital if geopolitical tensions accelerate. See the full briefing and his 3-step plan here With the stock in such a steep decline and the pharma company recently raising guidance, is there potential for a sustainable recovery? MRNA Expects Stability in 2026 After COVID Sales Plummet The spike in Moderna stock followed the company's announcement of better-than-expected revenue guidance and stronger cost-management metrics. For 2025, Moderna said it expects to generate $1.9 billion in revenue — $100 million above the midpoint of its prior guidance. It also forecast operating expenses roughly $200 million below previous estimates. That implies non-adjusted operating expenses for 2025 of $5.0 billion to $5.2 billion, about $2 billion less than the prior year. On a cash basis, Moderna expects costs of $3.5 billion to $3.9 billion by 2027. Nearly all of Moderna's sales still come from COVID-19 vaccines. Of the firm's $1 billion in revenue last quarter, $971 million came from COVID vaccines. That is a sharp decline from late 2021, when the company generated $7.2 billion in one quarter. As of the end of 2023, the World Health Organization estimated that 67% of the world's population had received the complete primary series of a COVID-19 vaccine. That leaves a much smaller pool of potential patients for Moderna to generate sales from, making it difficult to see sustainable growth based solely on COVID treatments. Still, Moderna projects up to 10% sales growth in 2026, expecting repeatable booster demand from high-risk individuals and seniors. The company has strategic partnerships with the governments of Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia, and 2026 will be the first year it sees the full-year benefit of those deals. Notably, in Q1 2026 the firm expects to generate $200 million in sales from the U.K. government. Targeting high-risk populations and pursuing government contracts could provide a stable revenue base going forward. MRNA Seeks 2028 Break-Even, Needs Positive Non-Seasonal Readouts Moderna says its seasonal vaccine strategy, combined with cost reductions, can achieve breakeven cash flow by 2028. The company recently released Phase 3 results for a flu vaccine that could be approved in 2026 and begin generating meaningful revenue in 2027. Approval would be a major catalyst by adding a second seasonal product; securing it is essential to keeping the 2028 breakeven target realistic. However, to attract sustained investor enthusiasm, Moderna will likely need success outside seasonal vaccines. Seasonal markets provide a revenue floor but limited long-term growth, so approvals in oncology or rare disease areas would be critical to expanding the company's upside. Moderna has several candidates in those areas with pivotal readouts expected in 2026. The most prominent is its personalized cancer therapy, intismeran — the company expects five-year Phase 2 data in early 2026, with Phase 3 results possible in late 2026. Despite Recent Excitement, Moderna Remains a Wait-and-See Stock. Overall, uncertainty continues to cloud Moderna's outlook. Whether COVID-19 vaccine sales have truly bottomed is far from certain, and the company's long-term prospects hinge on approvals in clinical areas where it currently has no marketed products. The Trump administration has also reduced government investments in mRNA development, winding down support in the technology area where Moderna specializes, which has added to concerns about future approvals. For now, Moderna is a stock to watch. The consensus price target — near $30 — implies more than 25% downside from current levels. Seeing a stabilization in COVID-19 vaccine demand would be an important prerequisite to becoming more bullish on Moderna's long-term prospects.
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