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This Week's Bonus Story Moderna Pops 17%—Is There Life in MRNA, Down 90% from COVID High?Authored by Leo Miller. First Published: 1/20/2026. 
Key Takeaways - Moderna was one of the top vaccine providers during the pandemic, generating +$7 billion in sales one quarter.
- Shares are now down more than 90% from their high, following the path of COVID-19 vaccine sales.
- However, Moderna just posted its biggest gain in over three years after updating its guidance. Does the stock have real rebound potential?
In a blast from the past, COVID-19 vaccine developer Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) made headlines on Jan. 13, 2026, when shares jumped more than 17%—the company's largest single-day gain in over three years. Moderna shares have plunged as COVID-19's prominence has faded. Trading near $42 per share as of Jan. 20, the stock is still down more than 90% from its all-time high—even after the recent bounce. Former Trump Adviser Reveals Administration's Shocking Wealth Initiative
President Donald Trump just signed a mandate that promises to redistribute wealth from Wall Street to everyday Americans. And a small group of Americans is already collecting their share of up to $68 billion that's up for grabs. This is money that must be paid out by federal law. Click here to discover how to claim your share. With the stock deeply depressed and the pharma company recently raising its outlook, could Moderna shares have meaningful upside? MRNA Expects Stability in 2026 After COVID Sales Plummet The rally followed better-than-expected revenue guidance and stronger cost-management metrics. Moderna now expects $1.9 billion in 2025 revenue—$100 million above its previously outlined midpoint guidance. The company also forecast operating expenses about $200 million below prior estimates. That would put non-adjusted operating expenses for 2025 between $5.0 billion and $5.2 billion, roughly $2 billion lower than the prior year. On a cash basis, Moderna expects costs of $3.5 billion to $3.9 billion by 2027. Nearly all of Moderna's sales still come from COVID-19 vaccines. Of the firm's roughly $1 billion in revenue last quarter, $971 million came from COVID vaccines—starkly lower than late 2021, when the company generated $7.2 billion in one quarter. By the end of 2023, the World Health Organization estimated that 67% of the world's population had received the complete primary series of a COVID-19 vaccine. That leaves a much smaller pool of potential patients for Moderna to target, making it difficult for the company to achieve sustainable growth based solely on COVID treatments. Still, Moderna expects up to 10% sales growth in 2026, citing repeatable booster sales among high-risk individuals and seniors. The company also has strategic supply deals with the governments of Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia. 2026 will be the first year Moderna sees the full-year benefit of those partnerships; notably, it expects about $200 million in Q1 2026 sales from the U.K. government. Targeting high-risk populations and expanding government contracts could help establish a base of recurring revenue. MRNA Seeks 2028 Break-Even, Needs Positive Non-Seasonal Readouts Moderna believes a seasonal-vaccine strategy combined with cost reductions can produce breakeven cash flow by 2028. The company recently released Phase 3 results for a flu vaccine that could be approved in 2026 and start contributing meaningful revenue in 2027. Approval and commercialization of a second seasonal product would be an important catalyst toward its 2028 goal. But seasonal vaccines alone likely won't drive long-term growth. To rekindle investor enthusiasm, Moderna will probably need success in non-seasonal categories such as oncology or rare diseases. Several candidates in those areas have pivotal readouts expected in 2026. The lead program is its personalized cancer vaccine, intismeran, for which Moderna expects five-year Phase Two data in early 2026 and potential Phase Three data by late 2026. Despite Recent Excitement, Moderna Remains a Wait-and-See Stock Uncertainty still clouds Moderna's outlook. It's not guaranteed that COVID-19 vaccine sales have bottomed. The company's long-term prospects hinge on approvals in clinical areas where it currently has no marketed therapies. The federal government has also scaled back some mRNA development investments—an action cited by critics that adds to concerns about future program support and regulatory dynamics. HHS recently announced winding down certain mRNA development efforts, which has increased trepidation around future approvals. For now, Moderna is a stock to monitor. The consensus price target sits near $30, implying more than 25% downside from current levels. A stabilization in COVID-19 vaccine demand—or meaningful success from non-seasonal programs—would be a key prerequisite to becoming more constructive on the stock's long-term prospects.
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