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Exclusive Story from MarketBeat Media Moderna Pops 17%—Is There Life in MRNA, Down 90% from COVID High?Submitted by Leo Miller. Article Published: 1/20/2026. 
Quick Look - Moderna was one of the top vaccine providers during the pandemic, generating +$7 billion in sales one quarter.
- Shares are now down more than 90% from their high, following the path of COVID-19 vaccine sales.
- However, Moderna just posted its biggest gain in over three years after updating its guidance. Does the stock have real rebound potential?
In a blast from the past, COVID-19 vaccine developer Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) made headlines in 2026 when shares jumped more than 17% on Jan. 13 — the stock's largest single-day gain in over three years. Moderna shares have been hammered as COVID-19's relevance has faded. Trading near $42 per share as of Jan. 20, the stock is down more than 90% from its all-time high, even after the recent bounce. Gold continues hitting new record highs, but the next few weeks could be the most critical window in the metal's history. Deutsche Bank and J.P. Morgan both raised their 2026 targets to $6,000 per ounce. Yardeni Research, who avoided gold calls for years, now sees $10,000 by decade's end. When skeptics turn bullish, something big is happening. But nearly everyone is missing what happens on March 31st, when a 90-year-old federal law could trigger a major wealth transfer. One company owns 88 million ounces of gold worth over $431 billion yet trades for a tiny fraction of that value. See the evidence before March 31st arrives. With the stock in such a deep hole and the pharma company recently raising its outlook, is it possible Moderna shares have life? MRNA Expects Stability in 2026 After COVID Sales Plummet The spike in Moderna stock followed the company announcing better-than-expected revenue guidance and reporting stronger cost management. For 2025, the company said it expects to generate $1.9 billion in revenue—$100 million above its previously outlined midpoint guidance. It also forecast operating expenses about $200 million below prior estimates. This would result in non-adjusted operating expenses in 2025 of roughly $5.0 billion to $5.2 billion, about $2 billion lower than the prior year. On a cash basis, Moderna expects costs of $3.5 billion to $3.9 billion by 2027. Essentially all of Moderna's sales still come from COVID-19 vaccines. Of the firm's $1 billion in revenue last quarter, $971 million came from COVID vaccines — a steep decline from late 2021, when the company generated $7.2 billion in a single quarter. As of the end of 2023, the World Health Organization estimated that 67% of the world's population had received the complete primary series of a COVID-19 vaccine. That leaves a much smaller pool of potential patients for Moderna to serve, making it difficult to see sustainable growth based solely on COVID treatments. Still, Moderna forecasts up to 10% sales growth in 2026, betting on repeatable COVID-19 booster demand from high-risk individuals and seniors. The company has strategic agreements with the governments of Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia, and 2026 will be the first year Moderna realizes the full-year benefit of those deals. Notably, in Q1 2026 the firm expects to book about $200 million in sales from the U.K. government. Targeting high-risk populations and pursuing government partnerships could help establish a steadier revenue base. MRNA Seeks 2028 Break-Even, Needs Positive Non-Seasonal Readouts Moderna believes its seasonal vaccine strategy, combined with cost reductions, can deliver breakeven cash flow by 2028. The company recently released Phase 3 results for a flu vaccine. That vaccine could be approved in 2026 and begin generating meaningful revenue in 2027 — a potential catalyst that would add a second seasonal product addressing a widespread infection. Securing approval is essential for the company to have a realistic shot at its 2028 goal. However, seasonal markets alone offer limited long-term growth. For investors to become genuinely bullish on Moderna, the company will likely need approvals in non-seasonal areas such as oncology or rare diseases. Moderna has several candidates in those areas with pivotal readouts expected in 2026. The most important is its personalized cancer medicine, intismeran. The company expects five-year Phase II follow-up data in early 2026, with Phase III results possible in late 2026. Despite Recent Excitement, Moderna Remains a Wait-and-See Stock. Overall, uncertainty continues to cloud Moderna's outlook. Whether the company's COVID-19 vaccine sales have truly bottomed is far from guaranteed. Moreover, the firm's long-term prospects hinge on gaining approvals in clinical areas where it currently has no marketed products. The Trump administration has also been critical of mRNA technology, winding down government investments in the area Moderna specializes in, which has only heightened trepidation about future approvals. For now, Moderna is a stock to watch. The consensus price target — near $30 — implies more than 25% downside from current levels. Seeing stabilization in COVID-19 vaccine demand and progress outside the seasonal market would be important prerequisites to becoming more bullish on the stock's long-term prospects.
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