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Further Reading from MarketBeat Moderna Pops 17%—Is There Life in MRNA, Down 90% from COVID High?By Leo Miller. Publication Date: 1/20/2026. 
Key Takeaways - Moderna was one of the top vaccine providers during the pandemic, generating +$7 billion in sales one quarter.
- Shares are now down more than 90% from their high, following the path of COVID-19 vaccine sales.
- However, Moderna just posted its biggest gain in over three years after updating its guidance. Does the stock have real rebound potential?
In a blast from the past, COVID-19 vaccine developer Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) made headlines in 2026 when shares jumped more than 17% on Jan. 13 — the company's largest one-day gain in over three years. Moderna shares have been hit hard as COVID-19's relevance has faded. Trading near $42 per share as of Jan. 20, the stock remains down more than 90% from its all-time high, even after the recent bounce. Elon's Next Market Move Could Send Silver Soaring
Every industry Elon Musk touches explodes—from Tesla to SpaceX to AI.
And now, whispers are growing that his next move could be in silver.
Why? Because silver is the lifeblood of EVs, solar panels, and AI tech. Smart money is already watching silver closely. With the stock in such a deep hole and the pharma company recently raising its outlook, is there potential for Moderna to recover? MRNA Expects Stability in 2026 After COVID Sales Plummet The surge in Moderna's stock followed the company announcing better-than-expected revenue guidance and improved cost management. For 2025, Moderna said it expects to generate $1.9 billion in revenue — about $100 million above its prior midpoint guidance. The company also forecasted operating expenses roughly $200 million below previous estimates. That would put non-adjusted operating expenses for 2025 between $5 billion and $5.2 billion, roughly $2 billion lower than the prior year. On a cash basis, Moderna expects costs of about $3.5 billion to $3.9 billion by 2027. Nearly all of Moderna's current sales still come from COVID-19 vaccines. Of the firm's $1 billion in revenue last quarter, $971 million came from COVID vaccines — a steep drop from late 2021 when the company generated $7.2 billion in one quarter. As of the end of 2023, the World Health Organization estimated that 67% of the world's population had received the complete primary series of a COVID-19 vaccine. That significantly shrinks the pool of potential patients, making it difficult for Moderna to return to sustained growth based solely on COVID treatments. Still, Moderna projects up to 10% sales growth in 2026, driven by repeat boosters for higher-risk individuals and seniors. The company also has strategic government partnerships — notably with Canada, the U.K., and Australia — and 2026 will be the first year it sees the full-year impact of those agreements. Moderna expects about $200 million in sales from the U.K. government in Q1 2026. Targeting high-risk populations and securing government deals could help establish a more stable revenue base. MRNA Seeks 2028 Break-Even, Needs Positive Non-Seasonal Readouts Moderna believes a seasonal vaccine strategy combined with cost reductions can produce breakeven cash flow by 2028. The company recently released Phase 3 results for a flu vaccine; that treatment could be approved in 2026 and begin contributing meaningful revenue in 2027. Approval of a second seasonal product would be an important catalyst and would help the company toward its 2028 goal. However, seasonal vaccines alone are unlikely to generate substantial long-term growth. To regain investor enthusiasm, Moderna will likely need meaningful progress in non-seasonal categories, such as oncology and rare diseases, where approvals could unlock new revenue streams. The company has several candidates in these areas with pivotal readouts expected in 2026. The most notable is its personalized cancer medicine, intismeran: Moderna expects five-year Phase II data in early 2026, with Phase III data possible in late 2026. Despite Recent Excitement, Moderna Remains a Wait-and-See Stock Overall, uncertainty still clouds Moderna's outlook. It's not guaranteed that COVID-19 vaccine sales have bottomed, and the firm's long-term prospects hinge on approvals in areas where it currently has no marketed medicines. The previous administration was critical of mRNA technology and has been winding down government investments in the area where Moderna specializes, adding to concerns about future regulatory support and approvals. For now, Moderna is a stock to watch. The consensus price target — roughly $30 — implies more than 25% downside from current levels. A stabilization in COVID-19 vaccine demand and meaningful progress on non-seasonal drug candidates would be key prerequisites for a more bullish case on Moderna's long-term prospects.
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