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This Month's Bonus Article Moderna Pops 17%—Is There Life in MRNA, Down 90% from COVID High?Reported by Leo Miller. Article Published: 1/20/2026. 
Article Highlights - Moderna was one of the top vaccine providers during the pandemic, generating +$7 billion in sales one quarter.
- Shares are now down more than 90% from their high, following the path of COVID-19 vaccine sales.
- However, Moderna just posted its biggest gain in over three years after updating its guidance. Does the stock have real rebound potential?
In a surprising turn, COVID-19 vaccine developer Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) made headlines on Jan. 13, 2026, when shares jumped more than 17%—the company's largest single-day gain in over three years. Moderna shares have been hammered as COVID-19's relevance waned. Trading near $42 per share as of Jan. 20, the stock remains down more than 90% from its all-time high—even after the recent bounce. Gold continues hitting new record highs, but the next few weeks could be the most critical window in the metal's history. Deutsche Bank and J.P. Morgan both raised their 2026 targets to $6,000 per ounce. Yardeni Research, who avoided gold calls for years, now sees $10,000 by decade's end. When skeptics turn bullish, something big is happening. But nearly everyone is missing what happens on March 31st, when a 90-year-old federal law could trigger a major wealth transfer. One company owns 88 million ounces of gold worth over $431 billion yet trades for a tiny fraction of that value. See the evidence before March 31st arrives. With the stock in such a deep hole and the pharma company recently raising its outlook, can Moderna shares still recover? MRNA Expects Stability in 2026 After COVID Sales Plummet The recent surge followed Moderna's announcement of better-than-expected revenue guidance and improved cost management. For 2025, the company now expects $1.9 billion in revenue—$100 million above its prior midpoint guidance—and forecast operating expenses roughly $200 million lower than earlier estimates. That guidance implies non-adjusted operating expenses for 2025 of $5.0 billion to $5.2 billion, about a $2 billion decline from the previous year. On a cash basis, Moderna expects costs between $3.5 billion and $3.9 billion by 2027. Almost all of Moderna's current sales still come from COVID-19 vaccines. Of the firm's $1 billion in revenue last quarter, $971 million was from COVID vaccines—a steep drop from late 2021 when the company generated $7.2 billion in one quarter. As of the end of 2023, the World Health Organization estimated that 67% of the world’s population had received the complete primary series of a COVID-19 vaccine, leaving a much smaller pool of potential new patients. That makes it difficult for Moderna to rely on COVID treatments alone for sustainable growth. Still, Moderna expects up to 10% sales growth in 2026, driven by repeat booster demand among high-risk individuals and older adults. The company has strategic agreements with the governments of Canada, the U.K., and Australia, and 2026 will be the first year it sees the full benefit of those deals. Notably, Moderna expects about $200 million in sales from the U.K. government in Q1 2026. Targeting high-risk populations and securing government contracts could establish a steadier revenue base. MRNA Seeks 2028 Break-Even, Needs Positive Non-Seasonal Readouts Moderna says its seasonal vaccine strategy, combined with cost cuts, can deliver breakeven cash flow by 2028. The company recently released Phase 3 results for a flu vaccine that could be approved in 2026 and start producing meaningful revenue in 2027. Approval of a second seasonal product would be an important catalyst and help the company toward its 2028 goal. However, seasonal markets offer limited long-term growth. For investors to become genuinely optimistic, Moderna will likely need success beyond seasonal vaccines—specifically approvals in oncology or rare diseases, where long-term upside is greater. Moderna has several candidates in these areas with pivotal readouts expected in 2026. The most important is its personalized cancer treatment, intismeran: the company expects five-year Phase II data in early 2026, with potential Phase III data in late 2026. Despite Recent Excitement, Moderna Remains a Wait-and-See Stock Uncertainty still clouds Moderna's outlook. It's far from certain that COVID-19 vaccine sales have bottomed, and the company's long-term prospects hinge on securing approvals in clinical areas where it currently has none. The Trump administration has also been critical of mRNA technology and is winding down government investments in this area (see announcement), which has heightened concerns about future support and approvals. For now, Moderna is a stock to watch. The consensus price target sits near $30, implying more than 25% downside from current levels. Stabilization in COVID-19 vaccine demand — and meaningful progress in non-seasonal programs — would be prerequisites for a more bullish long-term view.
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