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Featured Content from MarketBeat.com Can Upwork Maintain Its Comeback? Reasons to Be Bullish and BearishWritten by Dan Schmidt. Published 12/17/2025. 
Key Points - Upwork was a popular meme stock in 2021, but the company hasn't come close to matching those highs in the 4 years since.
- Despite its negative reputation, Upwork has become a profitable enterprise that's embraced AI for more complex jobs.
- While fundamental and technical tailwinds are in place, a few factors are still weighing on the stock that investors should be aware of as they enter 2026.
Traders might fondly remember the meme-stock era of 2021, but the companies involved have had mixed outcomes. Most (if not all) meme stocks never returned to their 2021 highs and currently sit in the market's dustbin. One of those former high-flyers is Upwork Inc. (NASDAQ: UPWK), the online gig marketplace that went public in 2018. Upwork appeared headed toward penny-stock status before COVID-19, when shares surged from about $6 to $58 over 18 months. Of course, UPWK fell back under $10 a share after the Fed began tightening, and that whole run felt like a fever dream. But now Upwork is once again rising, and this time the roughly 30% gain is supported by more than just cheap money. Can the stock sustain momentum into 2026? Here are three reasons to be bullish — and two reasons to remain cautious. 3 Reasons to be Bullish on UPWK in 2026 If Upwork keeps ascending, 2025 may be remembered as the year the company transitioned into a mature tech-sector business. Revenue is growing and the company has embraced AI, signaling adaptability. Several fundamental and technical tailwinds support the current surge, including these three factors. -
Revenue Growth Becoming Profitable Growing top-line sales is one thing; after seven years as a public company those results need to translate into profits. Upwork has begun doing that and is showing expansion across several key areas. The company has beaten top- and bottom-line expectations, margins have reached record levels (29.6%), and the all-important Gross Services Volume (GSV) metric returned to growth in Q3 2025, up 2% year-over-year (YOY). On its Q3 conference call, Upwork raised full-year revenue and EBITDA guidance and highlighted its AI progress — which brings us to the next factor. -
Successfully Mitigating AI Headwinds Many analysts feared generative AI would be a killshot for freelance marketplaces, since some one-off tasks could theoretically be handled by ChatGPT or Gemini. Instead, Upwork has integrated AI into hybrid workflows. Companies can now combine human freelancers with specialized AI agents for complex projects, and AI-based GSV has grown more than 50% YOY. The company also launched UMA, its "work companion," to help freelancers and clients connect more efficiently. -
Technical Trends Point to More Upside Fundamentals can take time to show up in a stock price unless technical tailwinds align. Upwork now combines record sales and expanding margins with encouraging technical signals. The stock briefly gave mixed messages when the price dipped despite a Golden Cross forming between the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). 
The Golden Cross was early but not wrong: the 50-day SMA held as support and the stock quickly reclaimed the 2025 high it set in September. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is elevated but still below the overbought threshold of 70, suggesting additional upside may be possible. 2 Reasons to be Bearish on UPWK in 2026 2025 performance is encouraging, but investors are focused on 2026. If you're considering a position in UPWK, watch these two risks. -
Shrinking Gig Volume Is a Red Flag AI has helped overall revenue growth, but it has also exposed vulnerabilities. While GSV is growing, smaller jobs paying $300 or less are disappearing as companies increasingly turn to generative AI to avoid onboarding costs and one-time freelancer fees. If Upwork loses these smaller gigs to AI solutions or competitors like Fiverr International Ltd. (NYSE: FVRR), the marketplace could see GSV shrink even if higher-value jobs remain available. -
Broader Labor Market Weakness The macro backdrop is currently benign: the Federal Reserve lowered rates again this month, and lower rates often benefit small-cap stocks that have real cash flow and reasonable valuations. But the labor market is the canary in Upwork's coal mine, and the company's Enterprise segment (which serves large professional clients) has already shown weakness this year. Additionally, the new Lifted platform for Enterprise clients will likely require significant integration work, which management expects could shave roughly 2% off margins in 2026. Margin pressures combined with a slowing job market or a recession would likely reverse Upwork's profit momentum and put downside pressure on the stock.
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