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Tuesday's Featured Article Can Upwork Maintain Its Comeback? Reasons to Be Bullish and BearishWritten by Dan Schmidt. Published 12/17/2025. 
Key Points - Upwork was a popular meme stock in 2021, but the company hasn't come close to matching those highs in the 4 years since.
- Despite its negative reputation, Upwork has become a profitable enterprise that's embraced AI for more complex jobs.
- While fundamental and technical tailwinds are in place, a few factors are still weighing on the stock that investors should be aware of as they enter 2026.
Traders might fondly remember the meme-stock era of 2021, but the outcomes for those companies have been mixed. Most (if not all) meme stocks never came close to their 2021 highs and currently sit far below those peaks. One of those former high-flyers is Upwork Inc. (NASDAQ: UPWK), the online gig marketplace that went public in 2018. Upwork looked headed for penny-stock status before COVID-19, when shares surged from $6 to $58 over 18 months. Just like Microsoft and Adobe rode the software wave in Web 1.0, RAD Intel is riding the AI software wave in 2025. Their product helps brands instantly find the right audience and message using AI – solving the #1 waste in marketing: misfired ad spend.
Already trusted by a who's-who of Fortune 1000 brands and leading global agencies – with recurring seven-figure partnerships in place. With a Nasdaq ticker reserved, $RADI, it's early – but very real. $0.85 Won't Last – Secure Your Shares Now. Of course, UPWK fell back under $10 a share after the Fed started raising rates, and the whole run felt like a fever dream to many investors. But now Upwork is once again rising, and this time the roughly 30% gain is supported by more than just low rates. Can the stock sustain this momentum as we enter 2026? We've got three reasons to be bullish — and two reasons for caution. 3 Reasons to be Bullish on UPWK in 2026 If Upwork continues this run, 2025 may be remembered as the year the company matured into a tech-sector enterprise. Revenue has been growing, and the company has embraced AI, signaling long-term adaptability. There are fundamental and technical tailwinds behind the surge this time, including these three factors. -
Revenue Growth Turning Profitable Growing top-line sales is one thing; eventually that growth must translate into profits—especially after seven years as a public company. Upwork has begun converting sales into earnings and is showing improvement across several key areas. The company has beaten top- and bottom-line expectations, margins have reached record levels (29.6%), and the all-important Gross Services Volume (GSV) metric returned to growth in Q3 2025, rising about 2% year-over-year (YOY). During the Q3 conference call, Upwork raised full-year revenue and EBITDA guidance and highlighted its AI advances — which brings us to the next point. -
Successfully Addressing AI Headwinds Many analysts expected generative AI to be an existential threat to freelance marketplaces like Upwork, since some one-off tasks could be handled by models such as ChatGPT or Gemini. Instead of losing clients, Upwork has embraced AI for hybrid workflows. Companies can now combine human freelancers with specialized AI agents for complex projects, and AI-driven GSV has grown more than 50% YOY. The company also introduced UMA, its "work companion," to help freelancers and clients connect more efficiently. -
Technical Trends Point to Further Upside Solid fundamentals can take time to show up in a stock price if technical tailwinds are absent. But Upwork now combines record sales, margin expansion, and favorable technical signals. The stock sent mixed signals when the price dipped even as a Golden Cross formed on the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). 
The Golden Cross wasn't wrong — it was early. The 50-day SMA wobbled but held as support, and the stock quickly reclaimed the 2025 high it reached in September. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is elevated but still below the overbought threshold of 70, suggesting there may be more room to run. 2 Reasons to be Bearish on UPWK in 2026 Putting 2025's gains aside, investors will want to know what could derail Upwork in 2026. Here are two risks to monitor. -
Shrinking Volume of Small Gigs AI has helped Upwork's overall revenue, but it has also exposed vulnerabilities. While GSV is growing, smaller jobs paying $300 or less are disappearing as companies turn to generative AI to avoid the cost and hassle of onboarding one-time freelancers. If Upwork cedes these smaller gigs to AI tools or competitors such as Fiverr International Ltd. (NYSE: FVRR), the marketplace could see GSV shrink again even if higher-level projects remain available. -
Broader Labor-Market Weakness The macro picture for Upwork is currently stable: the Federal Reserve recently lowered rates, and lower rates often benefit small-cap stocks with healthy cash flow and reasonable valuations. Still, the labor market is the canary in Upwork's coal mine, and the company's Enterprise segment (which serves large professional clients) has shown signs of weakness this year. Additionally, the company's new Lifted platform for Enterprise clients is expected to require substantial integration work, which could reduce margins by roughly 2 percentage points in 2026. Margin stagnation combined with a slowing job market or a recession would likely reverse Upwork's profit growth and put pressure on the stock. Investors weighing a position in UPWK for 2026 should balance these structural improvements and technical indicators against the risks from changing gig composition and broader labor-market trends.
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