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The Earnings360 Team
Tuesday's Featured Story The Off-Price Retail King? Why TJX Looks Ready to Break OutWritten by Thomas Hughes. Published 11/20/2025. 
Key Points - TJX Companies' Q3 results and guidance update point to the continuation of existing stock price trends.
- Cash flow fuels a healthy capital return, including dividends, distribution growth, and buybacks.
- Analysts and institutions are supporting this market and pushing it higher in late 2025.
The macroeconomic and retail backdrop is favorable to The TJX Companies' (NYSE: TJX) business, as reflected in its results and stock performance. Headwinds that shifted consumer habits and hurt many major retailers have created a sweet spot for off-price operators like The TJX Companies, allowing it to deliver attractive value to still-resilient consumers. More traders are stepping away from the screen and using structured overnight setups to target defined-risk opportunities without watching the market all day. The Overnight Income Project explains the core logic behind overnight price action, how to set clear risk parameters, and why this approach can simplify your trading week without sacrificing opportunity — all in a straightforward, practical guide built for today's uncertain environment.
And with Q4 bringing more questions than answers — from rate moves to volatility to shifting policy headlines — Graham Lindman and Nate Tucci focus on what actually matters: real market data. Their Opening and Closing Playbooks break down where money is flowing each session and turn it into simple, actionable setups traders can follow, giving you a clearer plan while others get lost in predictions. Download your free copy now The takeaway: industry-leading Q3 growth, continued outperformance, and an improved full-year outlook — even with cautious Q4 guidance — suggest the uptrend in TJX shares is likely to continue. 
TJX Companies Outperforms and Raises Guidance for the Year The TJX Companies delivered a strong quarter, reporting revenue of $15.12 billion, up 7.0% year‑over‑year (YOY) and about 175 basis points ahead of consensus. Strength was driven by a 5% systemwide comp, across‑the‑board division gains, and a 1.1% increase in store count. TJX Canada grew the fastest (+8% YOY), followed by a 6% gain in the core Marmaxx division, 5% at Home Goods, and a 3% rise internationally. Each segment contributed to the company's margin improvement. Gross margin improved about 100 basis points, helped by the selling environment and revenue leverage, plus operating efficiencies that translated into leveraged earnings. GAAP EPS rose roughly 12%, assisted by share repurchases that lowered the average share count by about 1.3% for the quarter. TJX issued Q4 guidance that was somewhat below expectations. Still, the miss is modest versus MarketBeat's consensus and does not erase the strong year‑to‑date performance. Importantly, management raised full‑year guidance: comparable store growth is now expected at 4%, with EPS at the low end of $4.63 — more than a nickel above consensus. Given management's historically conservative posture, guidance may be cautious, and actual results could beat when Q4 is reported in January. Capital Returns Drive TJX Companies Stock Price Higher Capital returns are a key driver of TJX's share performance. The company pays a dividend and repurchases shares, steadily reducing the share count each year. Its dividend is roughly in line with the S&P 500 average, but it is well covered and growing. With a payout ratio below 40%, annual raises are likely to continue for this Dividend Aristocrat. Excluding the COVID‑19 pause, TJX has increased its distribution for nearly 30 years and appears positioned to sustain strong dividend growth for the foreseeable future. TJX's balance sheet shows no red flags. Q3 highlights included higher current and total assets (driven by cash and inventories), only modest increases in liabilities, and a reduction in debt. Shareholders' equity rose nearly 15%, leverage remains low, and the company is effectively net cash, with long‑term debt around 0.2x equity. Analysts Trends Drive TJX Stock to New Highs The analyst trends support the fundamental and technical outlook: expanding coverage, firmer sentiment, 25 Buy ratings, and rising price targets. While consensus views the stock as fairly valued after Q3, the directional trend points toward the high end of the range — near $170 — implying roughly 17% upside from mid‑November levels.
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