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The Earnings360 Team
Today's Featured Article 3 Smart Defensive Stocks for an Uneasy MarketWritten by Chris Markoch. Published 11/18/2025. 
Key Points - Despite new market highs, recession risks remain elevated due to weakening consumer credit and signs of job market stress.
- Procter & Gamble and Johnson & Johnson offer stable dividends, strong balance sheets, and catalysts that could provide upside in a downturn.
- A rotation away from AI and into Dow components could make the DIA ETF a compelling defensive play for 2025.
At one point in early November, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) briefly topped 48,000 for the first time ever. At different times in 2025, the NASDAQ and S&P 500 also made new all-time highs (ATHs). Despite sharp price swings, it has been a strong year to own stocks. Yet many economists, analysts, and investors remain uneasy. The market appears priced for perfection—recession risks are not fully priced in. You can't afford to miss out on this one!
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He's been doing this over the last 3 years, and he's turned a $38k account into $315k… But if you'd like that, go here now for the details! Even with broad gains, skepticism persists. The Magnificent 7 trade may have cooled off, but the market is still being lifted by a narrow group of names, largely tied to the AI boom. The K-Shaped Economy Concern Commentary increasingly focuses on a K-shaped recovery. Higher-income consumers are coping with inflation near 3%—above the Federal Reserve's informal 2% target but manageable for affluent households. Lower-income consumers, however, have been under pressure for several years. Rising credit defaults, delinquent auto loans, and a recent uptick in foreclosures suggest this problem is worsening. The labor market, once the economy's strongest pillar, is beginning to show signs of strain. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) recently cut its estimate of recession probability from 60% to 40% after trade tensions eased. That is still a meaningful risk. Market Breadth Remains Narrow as Investors Chase Mega-Caps Recent data from Charles Schwab shows that the percentage of S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average was slightly above 50%. That's historically low market breadth and a cause for concern. This isn't a replay of 2021, when investors piled into unprofitable SPACs. Today's froth is concentrated in mega-cap stocks that generally have healthy cash balances. Still, many investors feel these names are overvalued. So what's an investor to do? Below are three investments that could deliver asymmetric returns in this uneasy market. Procter & Gamble Has More Than a Dividend to Like Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) is a member of the exclusive Dividend Kings club, having increased its dividend for at least 50 consecutive years—70 years in PG's case. That track record makes it a staple for income-oriented investors. The current 2.8% dividend yield could look more attractive if interest rates fall. Additionally, the $171.53 price target implies roughly 17% upside for 2025. It's unclear how P&G's proposed acquisition of Kenvue (NYSE: KVUE) will affect earnings. If the deal goes through and the Tylenol controversy eases, the company may see some EPS dilution in the first year, followed by potential EPS accretion from cost synergies. Johnson & Johnson Doubles Down on Medtech and Oncology Growth The next company to consider is Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), which spun off Kenvue in 2023 to focus on medtech and pharmaceuticals. Its recent $3.5 billion acquisition of Halda Therapeutics is an example of that strategy in action. The all-cash deal gives JNJ access to HLD-0915, a once-daily oral prostate cancer candidate that has received fast-track designation from the U.S. Food & Drug Administration (FDA). This acquisition meaningfully expands JNJ's oncology pipeline and should make the stock more appealing to growth-oriented investors. The DIA ETF Could Benefit From a Flight to Safety Over the past five years, many investors adopted a passive "SPY and chill" approach by investing in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA: SPY). SPY may still be a reasonable choice, but with potential AI overexuberance, it might be prudent to consider the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSEARCA: DIA). If concerns about an AI bubble intensify, investors could rotate into the more diversified, established names that make up the Dow 30, which would benefit the DIA ETF. As of this writing, DIA has about 37% institutional ownership, and it has seen net buying in seven of the last eight quarters—signaling institutions may be building a hedge against a possible tech slowdown.
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