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Pfizer Adds to Its Big Bet on Weight Loss Drugs
Reported by Jordan Chussler. Article Published: 12/16/2025.
Key Points
- The health care sector has led the S&P 500 over the three months, but Pfizer has lagged of late, slipping 5% since the start of October.
- As the Big Pharma company continues to struggle to replace COVID-19 vaccine revenue, it is heavily learning into the semaglutide and GLP-1 weight loss drug trend.
- Last week, the company signed a $2.1 billion licensing agreement with a Chinese pharma company to develop its early-stage weight loss pill.
Health care stocks have been on a run lately, leading the S&P 500's 11 sectors over the past three months with a gain of 11.55%. Unfortunately for some investors, that rally has not included all of the Big Pharma mainstays.
Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), the maker of Chantix, Eliquis and Paxlovid, has seen its shares slide 5% since the start of October. By comparison, other mega-cap pharmaceutical companies such as Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: REGN), and Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) are up nearly 14%, 24%, and 25%, respectively, over the same time frame.
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Watch the brief demo hereAnd despite Pfizer making headlines on Nov. 13 when it acquired obesity biotech Metsera in a $10 billion deal, the stock has only managed a 0.23% gain since then.
The nearly 177-year-old biopharma company is once again looking to expand its role in the weight-loss drug market, with management and shareholders alike hoping that doing so can help it recover lost revenue after waning demand for mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines.
Pfizer Looks to Gain Market Share After Enormous Deal With YaoPharma
On Tuesday, Dec. 9, Pfizer struck a $2.1 billion licensing deal with China's YaoPharma to develop a GLP-1 weight-loss pill that is in early-stage development. The drug works similarly to Wegovy, the game-changing weight-loss injection from competitor Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO).
News of a yet-to-be-approved weight-loss pill may not move the stock in the short term, but it does reflect the company's commitment and momentum in the obesity-treatment market.
The agreement calls for Pfizer to pay $150 million upfront to YaoPharma's parent, Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical, which has an $8.4 billion market cap.
In addition, Pfizer could pay YaoPharma up to $1.94 billion in milestone payments if the drug shows progress toward approval, along with royalty payments on sales if and when the drug is approved.
Those milestone payments will be contingent on YaoPharma successfully navigating the weight-loss pill through Phase 1 trials, with Pfizer taking control of later-stage development.
Pfizer also plans to conduct combination studies—currently in mid-stage development—using the Chinese pharma's pill together with its own GIP gut-hormone receptor agonist, a strategy similar to Eli Lilly's approach with Zepbound and Mounjaro that targets both GLP-1 and GIP.
Pfizer Is Positioning Itself for the Future of the Weight-Loss Drug Market
The deal underscores how aggressively the company's executive team is pursuing a larger, long-term position in the GLP-1 and broader obesity-treatment market.
Pfizer's leadership has shown a willingness to invest aggressively—approximately $10.1 billion over the past month—to build exposure in a rapidly growing industry.
Forecasts from market analysis firm Grand View Research suggest that the GLP-1 weight-loss drug market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.54% from 2025 to 2030, rising from less than $14 billion at the start of this year to an estimated $48.84 billion by 2030.
Grand View Research found that North America accounts for the largest revenue share, with more than 75% of the GLP-1 agonists market. While other obesity interventions exist, including lifestyle changes and bariatric surgery, GLP-1 drugs remain the preferred option among many physicians and patients.
Patient Investors Can Enjoy PFE's Sizable Dividend
Shareholders are hoping that Pfizer's push into the weight-loss market pays off after the stock has punished long-term investors with a loss of more than 31% over the past five years. Much of that decline stems from falling COVID-vaccine sales, which contributed to a swing in revenue growth—from more than 95% growth at the end of 2021 to a decline of more than 41% by the end of 2023.
Last year, Pfizer rebounded modestly, registering a nearly 7% increase in revenue. At the same time, the stock's dividend has offset some investors' concerns. Pfizer remains a strong dividend payer with a current yield of 6.65%—or $1.72 per share annually. That payout has increased for 16 consecutive years, making the stock attractive to income investors despite a 100% dividend payout ratio that raises questions for some.
For investors unconcerned with immediate capital appreciation but bullish on the near- and mid-term outlook for prescription weight-loss drugs, Pfizer can provide income while serving as a speculative play in the GLP-1 industry.
Growth-focused investors, however, may be less patient; analysts' average 12-month price target implies just over 10% potential upside from the current price and reflects a consensus Hold rating.
Meanwhile, short interest has been steadily rising as the stock attracts Wall Street bears. Currently, about $3.58 billion worth of the float is shorted—nearly 84% higher than PFE's short position at the end of January 2025.
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