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The Earnings360 Team
For Your Education and Enjoyment The Off-Price Retail King? Why TJX Looks Ready to Break OutWritten by Thomas Hughes. Published 11/20/2025. 
Key Points - TJX Companies' Q3 results and guidance update point to the continuation of existing stock price trends.
- Cash flow fuels a healthy capital return, including dividends, distribution growth, and buybacks.
- Analysts and institutions are supporting this market and pushing it higher in late 2025.
The macroeconomic and retail backdrop is favorable for The TJX Companies' (NYSE: TJX) business, as reflected in its recent results and rising stock price. Macroeconomic headwinds that have shifted consumer habits and pressured results at many large retailers have created a strong buying environment for off-price operators like The TJX Companies, allowing it to offer attractive value to still-resilient consumers. Gold has surged past $4,200 an ounce — up sharply over the past year — but Sean Brodrick of Weiss Ratings believes this move could still be in its early stages. After three decades tracking precious metals, he says past gold surges have often been overshadowed by a different type of opportunity that historically delivered far stronger returns than simply holding physical gold.
Sean now believes that pattern may be setting up again, and the strategy behind it doesn't require buying gold coins or bars. For a limited time this weekend, investors can access his full research — including the approach he says could benefit most if this gold cycle continues — for just $19 as part of a special offer. Click here to see how you could benefit before the offer expires The takeaway: industry-leading Q3 growth, combined with outperformance and cautiously improved Q4 guidance, supports the view that the uptrend in TJX shares is likely to continue. 
TJX Companies Outperforms and Raises Guidance for the Year The TJX Companies delivered a strong quarter, reporting revenue of $15.12 billion, up 7.0% year-over-year (YOY) and 175 basis points above consensus. Strength was driven by a 5% systemwide comp, gains across all divisions, and a 1.1% increase in store count. TJX Canada led the growth at +8% YOY, followed by a 6% increase in the core Marmaxx divisions, a 5% rise at HomeGoods, and a 3% gain internationally. All segments contributed to stronger net sales and margin expansion. Margin performance was also impressive. A favorable selling environment and revenue leverage delivered a 100-basis-point improvement in gross margin, complemented by operating efficiencies that drove leveraged earnings growth. GAAP EPS rose 12%; share repurchases reduced the share count by an average of 1.3% during the quarter. TJX provided Q4 guidance that was slightly below some expectations. However, the shortfall is modest relative to MarketBeat's consensus and does not detract from the strong year-to-date performance. Management raised full-year guidance, now expecting comp-store growth of 4% and bottom-end earnings of $4.63—more than a nickel above consensus. Given recent trends, guidance appears conservative, and actual outperformance is likely when Q4 results are reported in January. Capital Returns Drive TJX Companies Stock Price Higher Capital returns are a key driver of the TJX stock performance. The company both pays a dividend and repurchases shares, reducing its share count aggressively each year. The dividend yield is roughly in line with the S&P 500, but the payout is secure and the distribution is growing. The payout ratio remains low—below 40%—so annual increases are likely to continue for this Dividend Aristocrat. Excluding the COVID-19 pause, the company has raised its dividend for nearly 30 consecutive years and appears positioned to sustain double-digit dividend growth for the foreseeable future. TJX Companies' balance sheet shows no red flags and offers incentives for ownership. Q3 highlights include increases in current and total assets driven by higher cash and inventory, offset by smaller increases in liabilities and a reduction in debt. The net result was nearly a 15% rise in shareholders' equity, with persistently low leverage. The company is effectively net cash, with long-term debt roughly 0.2x equity. Analysts' Trends Push TJX Stock to New Highs Analysts' trends align with the fundamental and technical outlook. They show expanded coverage, firmer sentiment, 25 analysts with a Buy rating, and an upward shift in price targets. Consensus now treats the stock as fairly valued after the Q3 release, but the directional trend favors the high end of the range—near $170—implying roughly an additional 17% upside from mid-November levels.
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