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Just For You Battle of the Black Friday Stocks: Amazon vs. Walmart vs. TargetWritten by Nathan Reiff. Published 11/17/2025. 
Key Points - U.S. consumers are projected to spend more than $1 trillion on holiday shopping for the first time ever.
- Major retailers like Amazon, Walmart, and Target are poised to benefit from this trend.
- Walmart's omnichannel approach may give it an advantage on Black Friday, but Amazon's unparalleled logistics network and competitive pricing make it an overall holiday retail winner.
As Black Friday's reach extends to Small Business Saturday, Cyber Monday and, in some cases, the entire month of November, retail sales have followed suit. The National Retail Federation estimates that the 2025 winter holidays (extending from November to December) will see more than $1 trillion in U.S. retail sales for the first time — an increase of between 3.7% and 4.2% over 2024. Despite waning consumer confidence and inflation, Black Friday remains a key driver of holiday-season sales. Most traders spend all day glued to charts, hoping for a big move — but Graham Lindman says the easiest gains this year have come from a simple pricing quirk that appears in blue-chip options over and over again. By entering select $1-or-less contracts on names like Apple, Nvidia, and Google, he's shown how small moves in the stock can still deliver fast 100%+ wins — without timing the market or relying on complex setups. Now he's setting up the next round of these "$1 trades" and revealing exactly how he finds them. Click here to see how the $1 trade setup works and where the newest opportunities are Three of the core retailers positioned to benefit from increased spending after Thanksgiving include Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT), and Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT). How will these retail giants fare in 2025, and which is likely to come out on top? Amazon: The Online Juggernaut In the United States, Amazon is the undisputed champion of online retail. Although the e-commerce giant has focused on expanding its digital presence into cloud, ads and other services in recent years, its retail business remains substantial. The company's Black Friday deals last for nearly two weeks, from November 20 to December 1, and include sales across all its categories, with electronics, toys, and beauty traditionally being among the top-selling products during this period. In 2024, the company hosted its most successful Black Friday sales event to date. It also boasts the lowest online prices of any major U.S. retailer—a distinction it has maintained for much of the past decade. Amazon's broad selection and ability to undercut rivals on price stem largely from its logistics advantages. The firm is even preparing to utilize its vast distribution network to disrupt the grocery space, one of the few remaining areas in which brick-and-mortar stores have had an advantage up to this point. Walmart: The Omnichannel King Originally a traditional retailer, Walmart has been one of the most successful legacy chains to pivot to a balanced strategy that combines in-store shopping with e-commerce. This omnichannel approach serves the company well in both the U.S. and international markets, fueling some of its best-ever earnings reports in recent quarters. Walmart has even managed to entice some third-party sellers from Amazon's platform, making the company's e-commerce marketplace a key driver of overall sales growth. Furthermore, Walmart's robust fulfillment network enables it to price competitively and plan inventory strategically for both in-store and online sales. To top it off, the company enjoys one of the most loyal customer bases among leading retailers. Target: The Challenger Though a household name, Target's smaller size and profile compared with Amazon and Walmart mean it has had to carve out a niche to remain competitive during Black Friday. The company focuses on curation—including a narrower third-party marketplace and a more selective assortment of brands than some competitors. This approach has helped Target build a reputation for offering strong value on quality items across multiple categories. Target's store pickup program, where customers order online and collect in store, gained traction during the COVID-19 pandemic and remains popular. Target faced challenges in recent quarters, including a widespread boycott when it rolled back its DEI program. The Black Friday sales period could be an opportunity for the company to rebound or to fall further behind its competitors. Key Metrics Comparison On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, Walmart has the most momentum heading into Black Friday. WMT shares are up about 14% this year, compared with gains of 8% for AMZN and a decline of about 34% for TGT. Looking at holiday revenue estimates, Amazon forecasts fourth-quarter revenues between $206 billion and $213 billion; neither of the other two companies has provided public forecasts of their holiday revenues as of this writing. Amazon's online store sales for the latest quarter reached $67.4 billion, a 10% year-over-year (YOY) increase, representing approximately 63% of total sales for the period. Walmart's latest annual report revealed $121 billion in online sales, accounting for just under 18% of total revenue during the period. Although Target doesn't provide a similar breakdown in its sales data, digital comparable sales growth has recently far surpassed overall sales growth. So, Who Wins Black Friday 2025? With its broad-based omnichannel approach, strong customer base and competitive pricing, it's hard to imagine Walmart won't dominate the Black Friday retail race this year. Investors looking to capitalize on the company's performance may find an opportunity to buy shares ahead of its earnings release, expected on November 20, which will reflect the Black Friday sales period. That said, when viewed across the broader retail landscape, Amazon may still emerge as the overall leader. It is uniquely positioned to dominate a wider assortment of products at lower prices and benefits from the additional tailwinds of AWS and its advertising business. Additionally, while Black Friday is primarily a U.S. event, the broader holiday season matters globally — and Amazon's massive international footprint gives it an extra advantage. Target remains the challenger: its curated assortment and popular pickup model allow it to punch above its weight, but it will need to overcome recent headwinds to regain momentum in the holiday period.
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