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For Your Education and Enjoyment Battle of the Black Friday Stocks: Amazon vs. Walmart vs. TargetWritten by Nathan Reiff. Published 11/17/2025. 
Key Points - U.S. consumers are projected to spend more than $1 trillion on holiday shopping for the first time ever.
- Major retailers like Amazon, Walmart, and Target are poised to benefit from this trend.
- Walmart's omnichannel approach may give it an advantage on Black Friday, but Amazon's unparalleled logistics network and competitive pricing make it an overall holiday retail winner.
As Black Friday extends into Small Business Saturday, Cyber Monday, and even the whole month of November in some cases, retail sales have expanded accordingly. The National Retail Federation estimates that the 2025 winter holidays (November to December) will exceed $1 trillion in U.S. retail sales for the first time, an increase of roughly 3.7%–4.2% over 2024. Despite lingering headwinds from waning consumer confidence and inflation, Black Friday remains a key driver of sales at the start of the holiday season. A former hedge fund manager is now sharing his "Skim Codes" with regular people.
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84% of these codes have given people the chance to generate cash payouts so far… and his next code is going out any day now. Click here to see the full breakdown Three core retailers positioned to benefit from increased post-Thanksgiving spending are Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT), and Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT). How will these retail giants fare in 2025, and which is likely to come out on top? Amazon: The Online Juggernaut In the United States, Amazon is the undisputed leader in online retail. Although the e-commerce giant has expanded into cloud, advertising and other services, its retail business remains substantial. The company's Black Friday deals last nearly two weeks, from November 20 to December 1, and include promotions across all categories, with electronics, toys and beauty traditionally among the top sellers during this period. In 2024, the company hosted its most successful Black Friday event to date. It also boasts the lowest online prices of any major U.S. retailer—a distinction it has maintained for nearly a decade. Amazon's vast selection and ability to undercut rivals on price stem largely from its logistics advantages. The firm is even preparing to use its distribution network to disrupt the grocery space, one of the remaining areas where brick-and-mortar stores have traditionally held an edge. Walmart: The Omnichannel King Although originally a traditional retailer, Walmart has successfully pivoted to a balanced omnichannel strategy that blends in-store shopping with a growing online business. This approach has paid off in both the U.S. and international markets, contributing to some of its best recent earnings reports. Walmart has also enticed some third-party sellers away from Amazon, making its e-commerce marketplace an increasingly important growth driver. Its robust fulfillment network supports competitive pricing and strategic inventory planning for both in-store and online channels, and the company benefits from one of the most loyal customer bases among large retailers. Target: The Challenger Although a familiar name, Target is smaller than Amazon and Walmart and has carved out a niche to stay competitive during Black Friday. The company emphasizes curation—maintaining a smaller third-party marketplace and a more selective set of brands than some rivals. That strategy has helped Target build a reputation for delivering value on quality items across multiple categories. Its store pickup program, where customers buy online and collect in-store, became popular during the COVID-19 pandemic and remains widely used. Target has faced challenges in recent quarters, including backlash after changes to its DEI program. The Black Friday period could be an opportunity for the company to rebound or to fall further behind its larger competitors. Key Metrics Comparison On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, Walmart has the most momentum heading into Black Friday. WMT shares are up about 14% this year, compared with gains of roughly 8% for AMZN and a decline of about 34% for TGT. Looking at holiday revenue estimates, Amazon forecasts fourth-quarter revenues between $206 billion and $213 billion; neither Walmart nor Target had released comparable public holiday revenue forecasts at the time of writing. Amazon's online store sales for the latest quarter reached $67.4 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, representing about 63% of total sales for the period. Walmart's latest annual report showed $121 billion in online sales, just under 18% of total revenue during the period. Although Target doesn't provide the same level of breakdown, digital comparable sales growth has recently outpaced overall sales growth. So, Who Wins Black Friday 2025? With its broad omnichannel strategy, strong customer base and aggressive pricing, Walmart appears well-positioned to dominate the Black Friday retail race this year. Investors looking to capitalize on that momentum may consider buying shares ahead of its earnings release, expected on November 20, which will reflect the Black Friday sales period. That said, across the broader retail landscape Amazon could emerge as the overall leader. It is uniquely positioned to dominate a wider range of products at competitive prices and benefits from additional tailwinds from AWS, cloud services and advertising revenue. Internationally, while Black Friday is less central in some markets, the holiday season remains important worldwide, and Amazon's massive global presence gives it another advantage.
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