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The Earnings360 Team
Today's Bonus Content The Off-Price Retail King? Why TJX Looks Ready to Break OutWritten by Thomas Hughes. Published 11/20/2025. 
Key Points - TJX Companies' Q3 results and guidance update point to the continuation of existing stock price trends.
- Cash flow fuels a healthy capital return, including dividends, distribution growth, and buybacks.
- Analysts and institutions are supporting this market and pushing it higher in late 2025.
The macroeconomic and retail conditions are ideal for The TJX Companies' (NYSE: TJX) business, as reflected in its results and stock price. Macroeconomic headwinds that have shifted consumer habits and impacted results for many large retailers have created a favorable buying environment for off-price retailers like The TJX Companies, enabling the company to offer attractive value to still resilient consumers. For many investors, a family trust can be an essential tool for protecting assets, avoiding probate, and ensuring wealth is passed on according to your wishes. Trusts may also provide shielding from creditors and lawsuits while offering potential tax advantages—especially with estate tax thresholds set to decrease in 2026.
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TJX Companies Outperforms and Raises Guidance for the Year The TJX Companies had a strong quarter, reporting revenue of $15.12 billion, up 7.0% year-over-year (YOY) and 175 basis points better than consensus. Strength was driven by a 5% systemwide comparable-store sales gain, broad improvement across all divisions, and a 1.1% increase in store count. TJX Canada grew the fastest, up 8% YOY, followed by a 6% increase in the core Marmaxx divisions, a 5% increase in HomeGoods, and a 3% gain internationally. All segments posted stronger net growth, which also supported margin expansion. Margin news was also positive. Gross margin improved 100 basis points thanks to a favorable selling environment and revenue leverage, along with operating improvements, producing leveraged earnings gains. GAAP EPS rose 12%, aided by share repurchases that reduced the share count by an average of 1.3% during the quarter. TJX Companies provided Q4 guidance that came in slightly below some expectations. Nonetheless, the shortfall is minor relative to MarketBeat's consensus and does not diminish the company's strong year-to-date performance. The net result is that full-year guidance was raised: comp-store growth is now expected at 4% and earnings at the low end of $4.63, more than a nickel above consensus estimates. Given the trends, management appears conservative in its outlook, and results could outpace guidance when Q4 is reported in January. Capital Returns Drive TJX Companies Stock Price Higher Capital returns are a key driver of TJX's stock performance. The company pays a dividend and repurchases shares, reducing its share count consistently each year. The dividend is modest compared with the S&P 500, but it is secure and growing. The payout ratio is low, below 40%, supporting continued annual increases for this Dividend Aristocrat. Excluding the COVID-19 pause, the company has raised its distribution for nearly 30 consecutive years and appears positioned to sustain a double-digit compound annual growth rate for the foreseeable future. TJX Companies' balance sheet shows no red flags and provides incentives for ownership. Q3 highlights include higher current and total assets—driven by increases in cash and inventory—offset by smaller gains in liabilities and a reduction in debt. The result is roughly a 15% increase in shareholders' equity coupled with persistently low leverage. The company is net cash, with long-term debt at approximately 0.2x equity. Analysts Trends Drive TJX Stock to New Highs The analysts' trends are aligned with the fundamental and technical outlook: increased coverage, firmer sentiment, 25 analysts rating the stock a Buy, and an upward trend in price targets. Consensus assumes the stock is fairly valued after the Q3 release, but price targets have moved toward the high end of the range—near $170—implying roughly 17% upside from mid-November levels.
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