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Today's Bonus Story Battle of the Black Friday Stocks: Amazon vs. Walmart vs. TargetWritten by Nathan Reiff. Published 11/17/2025. 
Key Points - U.S. consumers are projected to spend more than $1 trillion on holiday shopping for the first time ever.
- Major retailers like Amazon, Walmart, and Target are poised to benefit from this trend.
- Walmart's omnichannel approach may give it an advantage on Black Friday, but Amazon's unparalleled logistics network and competitive pricing make it an overall holiday retail winner.
As Black Friday's reach extends to Small Business Saturday, Cyber Monday, and in some cases the entire month of November, retail sales have expanded along with it. The National Retail Federation estimates that the 2025 winter holidays (November through December) will exceed $1 trillion in U.S. retail sales for the first time, a rise of roughly 3.7% to 4.2% over 2024. Despite headwinds from softer consumer confidence and inflation, Black Friday remains a critical driver of holiday-season spending. AI-driven trading now dominates the gold sector, instantly buying up producers the moment earnings hit EDGAR or SEDAR. But these systems have one major blind spot: they can't identify pre-production miners. Until a company reports its first revenue, it's invisible to every AI model on Wall Street — which is why early-stage gold stocks often see their biggest move right before earnings go public.
Garrett Goggin says one small miner is only weeks from first production and positioned to show its first earnings in early 2026 — the moment AI systems will finally recognize it. He recently sat down with the company's leadership and released a full briefing on the project, the timeline, and how early investors can position before the algos catch on. Read the full analysis of this 'invisible' gold stock Three core retailers positioned to benefit from post-Thanksgiving spending are Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT), and Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT). How will these retail giants fare in 2025, and which is likely to come out on top? Amazon: The Online Juggernaut In the United States, Amazon is the undisputed leader in online retail. Although the e-commerce giant has broadened its footprint into cloud, advertising, and other services in recent years, its retail business remains a core strength. The company's Black Friday deals run nearly two weeks, from November 20 to December 1, and cover all major categories, with electronics, toys, and beauty typically among the top sellers. In 2024, Amazon hosted its most successful Black Friday event to date and is widely reported to offer the lowest online prices of any major U.S. retailer—a distinction it's held for nearly a decade. That pricing power, combined with unmatched assortment and logistics scale, helps Amazon outcompete rivals. The company is also preparing to use its distribution network to disrupt the grocery space, one of the last categories where traditional brick-and-mortar stores have maintained an edge. Walmart: The Omnichannel King Originally a traditional retailer, Walmart has successfully pivoted to an omnichannel model that blends strong in-store experiences with growing online capabilities. This approach has helped drive some of its best earnings in recent quarters. Walmart has lured some third-party sellers away from other marketplaces, making its e-commerce platform an increasingly important growth engine. Its extensive fulfillment network allows Walmart to price competitively and manage inventory across both channels, and the company benefits from one of the most loyal customer bases in retail. Target: The Challenger Target, though smaller than Amazon and Walmart, has carved out a niche to stay competitive during Black Friday. The company emphasizes curation—maintaining a smaller third-party marketplace and a more selective assortment of brands than some rivals. That strategy has helped Target build a reputation for delivering value on quality merchandise. Its store pickup program, which became popular during the COVID-19 pandemic, remains a convenient option for many customers. Target has faced recent challenges, including a consumer backlash after it scaled back certain DEI initiatives. The Black Friday period will be an opportunity for the company to recover ground or risk falling further behind. Key Metrics Comparison On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, Walmart appears to have the most momentum heading into Black Friday: WMT shares are up about 14% this year, compared with gains of about 8% for AMZN and a decline of roughly 34% for TGT. Looking at holiday revenue expectations, Amazon forecasts fourth-quarter revenue between $206 billion and $213 billion; neither Walmart nor Target has issued public holiday-revenue guidance as of this writing. Amazon's online store sales for the latest quarter reached $67.4 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, representing roughly 63% of total sales for the period. Walmart's latest annual report showed $121 billion in online sales, just under 18% of total revenue. Target does not disclose the same online-sales breakdown, but its digital comparable-sales growth has recently outpaced overall sales growth. So, Who Wins Black Friday 2025? Given its broad omnichannel footprint, loyal customer base, and competitive pricing, Walmart looks well positioned to dominate the U.S. Black Friday retail race this year. Investors looking to play that view might consider opportunities to buy shares before Walmart's earnings release, expected on November 20, which will shed light on holiday performance. That said, across the broader retail landscape Amazon could still be the overall leader. Its ability to offer a wider assortment at lower prices, combined with the tailwinds from AWS and advertising, gives Amazon a multi-pronged advantage. Finally, while Black Friday is most prominent in the United States, the broader holiday season matters globally—and Amazon's international scale provides another edge in that race.
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