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For Your Education and Enjoyment The Off-Price Retail King? Why TJX Looks Ready to Break OutWritten by Thomas Hughes. Published 11/20/2025. 
Key Points - TJX Companies' Q3 results and guidance update point to the continuation of existing stock price trends.
- Cash flow fuels a healthy capital return, including dividends, distribution growth, and buybacks.
- Analysts and institutions are supporting this market and pushing it higher in late 2025.
The macroeconomic and retail conditions are ideal for The TJX Companies' (NYSE: TJX) business, as reflected in its recent results and the stock's performance. The broader macroeconomic headwinds that have shifted consumer habits and hurt many major retailers have actually created a favorable buying environment for off-price retailers like The TJX Companies, allowing them to offer attractive values to still-resilient consumers. Trump Ally Says Congress Approved the Setup for a Digital Dollar 2.0
But according to Rep. Marjorie Taylor Green, it's a bill that contains "the entire setup, groundwork and infrastructure to move from cash to digital currency." >>> Click Here before it becomes law. The takeaway is that industry-leading growth in Q3, combined with outperformance and an improved outlook for Q4 (likely set conservatively), suggests the uptrend in TJX shares should continue. 
TJX Companies Outperforms and Raises Guidance for the Year The TJX Companies had a strong quarter, reporting revenue of $15.12 billion, up 7.0% year-over-year (YOY) and 175 basis points ahead of consensus. Strength was driven by a 5% systemwide comp, gains across all divisions, and a 1.1% increase in store count. TJX Canada grew the fastest, up 8% YOY, followed by a 6% increase in the core Marmaxx divisions, a 5% gain at HomeGoods, and a 3% increase internationally. All segments contributed to stronger net growth and margin expansion. Margin performance was also notable. A favorable selling environment and revenue leverage produced a 100-basis-point improvement in gross margin, and operating efficiencies further boosted earnings. GAAP EPS rose 12%, helped by share repurchases that reduced the share count by an average of 1.3% for the quarter. TJX provided Q4 guidance that was a touch lower than some expectations; however, the shortfall is minor relative to MarketBeat's consensus and does not detract from the strong year-to-date performance. The company raised full-year guidance, now expecting comp store growth of about 4% and earnings near $4.63 at the low end—more than five cents above consensus estimates. Given the company's historical conservatism when issuing guidance, it's likely the actual results will modestly outpace these targets when Q4 results are reported in January. Capital Returns Drive TJX Companies Stock Price Higher Capital returns are a key driver of TJX's share performance. The company both pays a dividend and repurchases shares, reducing the outstanding share count steadily each year. The dividend yield is modest relative to the S&P 500, but it is well-covered and growing. The payout ratio remains below 40%, supporting the likelihood of continued annual increases for this Dividend Aristocrat. Excluding the COVID-19 interruption, TJX has raised its distribution nearly every year for about 30 years and appears positioned to sustain double-digit compound annual dividend growth for the foreseeable future. TJX's balance sheet presents no red flags for investors and instead provides incentives for ownership. Q3 highlights include higher current and total assets—driven by increases in cash and inventory—offset by modest rises in liabilities and a reduction in debt. Shareholders' equity rose by nearly 15% while leverage stayed low. The company is effectively net cash, with long-term debt roughly 0.2x equity. Analysts' Trends Drive TJX Stock to New Highs Analyst sentiment aligns with the fundamental and technical outlook. Coverage has increased, sentiment has firmed, 25 analysts carry a Buy rating, and price targets have trended upward. Consensus after the Q3 release treats the stock as fairly valued, but the trend points toward the higher end of the range—near $170—implying roughly 17% upside from mid-November levels.
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