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The Earnings360 Team
Tuesday's Featured Content Battle of the Black Friday Stocks: Amazon vs. Walmart vs. TargetWritten by Nathan Reiff. Published 11/17/2025. 
Key Points - U.S. consumers are projected to spend more than $1 trillion on holiday shopping for the first time ever.
- Major retailers like Amazon, Walmart, and Target are poised to benefit from this trend.
- Walmart's omnichannel approach may give it an advantage on Black Friday, but Amazon's unparalleled logistics network and competitive pricing make it an overall holiday retail winner.
As Black Friday's reach now extends to Small Business Saturday, Cyber Monday and, in some cases, the entire month of November, retail sales have expanded along with it. The National Retail Federation estimates that the 2025 winter holidays (November through December) will exceed $1 trillion in U.S. retail sales for the first time — an increase of 3.7% to 4.2% over 2024. Despite waning consumer confidence and persistent inflation, Black Friday remains a key driver of holiday-season sales. Years before it became a household name, Shopify showed an early momentum pattern that experienced traders used to catch a 120% move — and that same repeatable signal has just appeared on a new small-cap ticker that hasn't hit the mainstream yet. Our free Momentum Trading Report breaks down how to spot these stealth setups and reveals which names are flashing right now. Get early access to the free Momentum Trading Report here Three core retailers positioned to benefit from post-Thanksgiving spending are Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) and Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT). How might these retail giants fare in 2025, and which is likely to come out on top? Amazon: The Online Juggernaut In the United States, Amazon remains the undisputed leader in online retail. Although the e-commerce giant has diversified into cloud computing, advertising and other services, its retail business remains massive. Amazon's Black Friday deals typically run for nearly two weeks — from November 20 to December 1 — and cover a broad range of categories, with electronics, toys and beauty among the top sellers. In 2024, the company hosted its most successful Black Friday event to date. It also frequently posts the lowest online prices of any major U.S. retailer, a position it's held for years. Amazon's breadth of selection and ability to compete on price stem largely from its scale and logistics advantages. The firm is also preparing to use its vast distribution network to expand further into grocery, an area where brick-and-mortar has historically held an edge. Walmart: The Omnichannel King Originally a traditional retailer, Walmart has successfully pivoted to an omnichannel model that blends in-store experiences with e-commerce. That strategy has paid off in both the U.S. and international markets, contributing to some of the company's strongest earnings results in recent quarters. Walmart has also attracted third-party sellers away from Amazon, making its marketplace an increasingly important source of growth. Its extensive fulfillment network allows Walmart to price competitively and manage inventory for both physical and online channels. Combined with a loyal customer base, these advantages position the company well heading into the holiday season. Target: The Challenger Target, though smaller than Amazon and Walmart, has carved out a niche to remain competitive during Black Friday. The company emphasizes curation — operating a narrower third-party marketplace and offering a more selective set of brands than some competitors. That focus has helped Target build a reputation for value on quality items. Its store pickup program, popularized during the COVID-19 pandemic, continues to be a strong driver of omnichannel sales. Target has faced headwinds in recent quarters, including a high-profile backlash after it rolled back elements of its diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) program. The Black Friday period could be an opportunity for a rebound or, if execution falters, for the company to fall further behind. Key Metrics Comparison On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, Walmart has the most momentum heading into Black Friday. WMT shares are up about 14% this year, compared with gains of about 8% for AMZN and a decline of roughly 34% for TGT. Looking at holiday revenue guidance, Amazon forecasts fourth-quarter revenues between $206 billion and $213 billion; neither Walmart nor Target had provided public holiday revenue forecasts at the time of writing. Amazon's online store sales for the latest quarter reached $67.4 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, representing roughly 63% of total sales for the period. Walmart's most recent annual report showed $121 billion in online sales, just under 18% of total revenue. Target does not provide the same detailed online sales breakdown, but its digital comparable sales growth has recently outpaced overall sales growth. So, Who Wins Black Friday 2025? Walmart looks well positioned to lead the Black Friday retail race this year thanks to its omnichannel strategy, broad customer base and competitive pricing. Investors looking to capitalize on Walmart's performance might consider the period before its earnings release (expected on November 20), which will reflect Black Friday results and holiday trends. That said, looking at the broader retail landscape, Amazon remains a powerful contender. It is uniquely positioned to compete across a wider range of products at lower prices and benefits from the additional tailwinds of AWS, advertising and other services. Amazon's massive international footprint also gives it an advantage in markets where Black Friday is less central but the broader holiday season is still significant. Target could still surprise if it executes well and retains customer loyalty, but it faces a steeper climb against the scale and logistics advantages of Amazon and the omnichannel strength of Walmart.
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