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Today's Bonus Story Battle of the Black Friday Stocks: Amazon vs. Walmart vs. TargetWritten by Nathan Reiff. Published 11/17/2025. 
Key Points - U.S. consumers are projected to spend more than $1 trillion on holiday shopping for the first time ever.
- Major retailers like Amazon, Walmart, and Target are poised to benefit from this trend.
- Walmart's omnichannel approach may give it an advantage on Black Friday, but Amazon's unparalleled logistics network and competitive pricing make it an overall holiday retail winner.
As Black Friday's reach now extends to Small Business Saturday, Cyber Monday, and even the entire month of November in some cases, so too do retail sales. The National Retail Federation estimates that the 2025 winter holidays (November–December) will generate more than $1 trillion in U.S. retail sales for the first time, a rise of about 3.7% to 4.2% over 2024. Despite waning consumer confidence and persistent inflation, Black Friday remains a key driver of retail activity at the start of the holiday season. Whitney Tilson—once nicknamed "The Prophet" by CNBC—has just revealed a new stock-grading system built to analyze thousands of companies in real time and surface opportunities most analysts overlook. One of the highest-rated stocks in the entire model isn't a headline AI name at all, but a lesser-known firm partnering with major universities on a new "intelligence education" platform that Tilson believes could offer a smarter way to participate in the AI wave.
During Stansberry's annual Black Friday event, you can see the ticker symbol, watch a free demo of the system, and access Tilson's latest research at the lowest price offered all year. Click here to see everything and claim your Black Friday access Three core retailers positioned to benefit from increased post-Thanksgiving spending are Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT), and Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT). How will these retail giants fare in 2025, and which is likely to come out on top? Amazon: The Online Juggernaut In the United States, Amazon is the undisputed leader in online retail. Although the e-commerce giant has diversified into cloud computing, advertising and other services, its retail business remains substantial. The company's Black Friday deals last for nearly two weeks — from November 20 to December 1 — and span all major categories, with electronics, toys and beauty traditionally among the top sellers. In 2024, Amazon hosted its most successful Black Friday event to date. It also claims the lowest online prices of any major U.S. retailer—a position it has maintained for nearly a decade. Much of Amazon's ability to undercut rivals stems from its scale and logistics advantages. The company is even preparing to leverage its expansive distribution network to disrupt the grocery space, one of the last segments where brick-and-mortar stores have held an edge. Walmart: The Omnichannel King Originally a traditional retailer, Walmart has successfully pivoted to an omnichannel model that blends in-store shopping with robust online capabilities. That approach has paid off in the U.S. and abroad, helping produce some of the company's best recent earnings reports. Walmart has also attracted third-party sellers who once relied primarily on Amazon, making its marketplace a growing contributor to e-commerce revenue. Its extensive fulfillment network allows competitive pricing and smarter inventory planning across channels, and Walmart benefits from one of the most loyal customer bases in retail. Target: The Challenger Though a household name, Target's smaller scale compared with Amazon and Walmart has required it to carve out a distinct niche to stay competitive during Black Friday. The company emphasizes curation — a limited third-party marketplace and a more selective assortment of brands — which has helped build a reputation for value and higher-quality items across categories. Target's buy-online-pickup-in-store program, popularized during the COVID-19 pandemic, remains a strong driver of omnichannel traffic. That said, Target has faced headwinds in recent quarters, including backlash after changes to its DEI program. The Black Friday period will be an important test of whether the company can regain momentum or continue to lag. Key Metrics Comparison On a year-to-date basis, Walmart has the most momentum heading into Black Friday. WMT shares are up about 14% this year, versus gains of roughly 8% for AMZN and a decline of about 34% for TGT. Looking at holiday revenue estimates, Amazon forecasts fourth-quarter revenues between $206 billion and $213 billion; neither Walmart nor Target has issued public holiday revenue guidance as of this writing. Amazon's online store sales for the latest quarter reached $67.4 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, representing about 63% of total sales for the period. Walmart's latest annual report showed $121 billion in online sales, roughly 18% of total revenue during the period. Target doesn't publish the same breakdown, but digital comparable sales growth has recently outpaced overall sales growth. So, Who Wins Black Friday 2025? With its broad omnichannel reach, loyal customer base and aggressive pricing, Walmart appears well positioned to dominate the Black Friday retail race this year. Investors looking to play that strength may consider opportunities ahead of Walmart's earnings release, expected on November 20, which will give insight into Black Friday performance. That said, across the wider retail landscape Amazon remains a formidable contender. Its ability to offer deeper discounts across a wider range of products, combined with the tailwinds from AWS, advertising and other services, gives it significant advantages. While Black Friday holds most of its weight in the United States, the broader holiday season matters globally — and Amazon's massive international footprint is another edge it brings into the race.
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