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GM Posts Largest Gain Since the Pandemic: Shares Still Look Cheap
Written by Leo Miller. Published 10/23/2025.
Key Points
- GM just saw its largest single-day gain in over five years, driven by its Q3 2025 results.
- The company smashed estimates, increased its market share, and demonstrated strong cost management.
- Further upside looks to be well in play, with GM still trading at an inexpensive valuation compared to many automakers.
Shares of Detroit Three automaker General Motors (NYSE: GM) have been under pressure for most of 2025, as tariffs, EV headwinds and economic uncertainty depressed sentiment. Recently, however, momentum swung sharply in GM's favor. The company's Q3 2025 earnings were one of its most significant positive surprises in years.
On Oct. 21, GM shares jumped 15% — the biggest single-day gain in 2025 and the second-largest since the company's 2010 restructuring. The only day that topped it was March 24, 2020, when markets rebounded from the COVID-19 crash: GM rose 20% that day while the S&P 500 rose 9%.
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Below, we'll review the results that produced this historic move and explain why GM's stock still appears to have meaningful upside. Even after the spike, GM's valuation remains depressed versus auto peers and its outlook is improving.
GM Crushes Estimates on the Top and Bottom Lines
GM posted revenue of approximately $48.6 billion, a 0.3% decline year-over-year, but well above Wall Street's much more pessimistic forecasts. Sales were about $4 billion higher than expected after analysts had penciled in roughly an 8.5% drop. The company also delivered a strong adjusted earnings per share (EPS) result of $2.80.
That $2.80 represented a 5% year-over-year decline, but it beat the Street's $2.32 forecast by $0.48. Overall, the EPS decline was far smaller than the roughly 22% drop analysts had anticipated.
GM said the outperformance should continue and raised its full-year guidance across several metrics. Adjusted EPS was increased by $1 at the midpoint to about $10.13. Management also now expects roughly $1.25 billion more in operating income and $1.75 billion more in adjusted automotive free cash flow than previously forecast.
GM Boosts Auto Market Share, Reduces Tariff Impact Forecast
GM led the U.S. auto market in Q3 with 710,000 deliveries, topping rivals while offering fewer incentives than the industry average. That helped the company reach its highest Q3 U.S. market share since 2017 — 17%. The company also posted record EV sales of 67,000, the second-highest total in the U.S., behind only Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).
The phase-out of EV tax credits in September likely accelerated some purchases as buyers rushed to act. Still, GM is leading the industry in EV market-share growth in 2025, underlining its progress in electrification. The company also reduced its tariff impact guidance for 2025 by $500 million at the midpoint and returned significant capital to shareholders with $1.5 billion in buybacks. Overall, these results left investors with little to dislike.
Resilient Demand, Effective Management and a Low Valuation
These results suggest GM is succeeding on two key fronts: demand and cost control. Despite tariffs and a less confident consumer, GM generated revenues roughly in line with last year's quarter. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index has fallen by more than 20% from September 2024 to September 2025, yet GM buyers largely held firm — a positive signal for the company's prospects.
GM also appears to be managing higher costs effectively, as shown by the EPS beat and the reduction in tariff guidance. Management has demonstrated an ability to adapt to tough conditions, which bodes well if macro trends improve. GM expects 2026 to be stronger than 2025 as it works to reduce EV losses and further mitigate tariff pressures.
Even after the stock's rally, GM trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of about 6.6x — well below the industry median of roughly 10x–11x. It's a fraction of Tesla's 227x forward P/E and still below Ford Motor's (NYSE: F) roughly 9x. GM looks like a value opportunity: outlook improving while valuation remains attractive. Analysts at Wedbush appear to agree — they raised their GM price target to $75 after the results, implying about 13% upside from the Oct. 21 close.
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