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Kohl's Stock Rebound Faces a Showdown With Short Sellers
Written by Thomas Hughes. Published 9/2/2025.
Key Points
- Kohl's is not out of the weeds but is on track to complete a turnaround and return to growth.
- Earnings quality is improving, setting the company up for a leveraged earnings rebound.
- Institutional and analyst trends provide solid support, while short-sellers have ample reason to fear volatility.
Kohl's (NYSE: KSS), a high-yield retailer, appears to have found its floor, but risk-averse income investors should proceed with caution. After sinking to its lowest levels in early April, the stock has mounted an impressive rally, yet volatility remains likely through year-end. While the turnaround is bearing fruit and the recently reduced dividend appears sustainable, uncertainty persists—and elevated short interest continues to be a headwind.
Although short interest fell roughly 31% sequentially in early August, it still stands at about 32% of the float, posing a lingering obstacle in Q3 and potentially Q4. That kind of pressure can amplify price swings, even as operational improvements bolster the longer-term outlook.
Short Sellers, Analyst Revisions, and Institutional Activity Drive Volatility
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The Q2 earnings report and updated guidance ignited a sharp rally, helped in part by short covering. At the same time, technical charts reveal significant resistance at key levels—formed by bearish price action in 2024 and the COVID-19 lows of 2020—that may cap gains without a fresh catalyst to push the stock higher.
Institutional investors offer one such catalyst. MarketBeat data shows that, after a modest net sell-off in Q1, institutions bought at a roughly $2-to-$1 rate compared to sellers in Q2 and early Q3. Since institutions own the vast majority of KSS shares, continued buying could force shorts to cover and provide further upside.
Analyst sentiment has also shifted. Since the Q2 update, MarketBeat has tracked ten positive revisions—the first in two quarters—including several price-target increases and upgrades. These moves ended the recent downtrend in sentiment, boosted the consensus target by 25% overnight, and helped establish a price floor. However, the new targets still sit below key resistance levels and may not be enough to trigger a full reversal on their own.
Mixed Fundamental Results: Revenue Slump Offset by Earnings Strength
Kohl's still faces top-line challenges. Revenue fell 5.1% year-over-year—200 basis points below consensus—driven by a 4.2% decline in comparable-store sales. That shortfall reflects increased markdowns and promotions aimed at reducing excess inventory. Those markdowns, along with improved operational efficiency, produced a better-than-expected bottom-line performance and generated sufficient cash flow to support the balance sheet and maintain the dividend.
The dividend yield stands near 3.3% as of early September, with a payout ratio of roughly 55% following the recent cut—leaving room for improvement. On the balance sheet, lower inventory and reduced liabilities helped drive a 2.6% increase in shareholder equity and keep leverage low. Long-term debt sits below 0.5x equity and roughly 0.5x inventory, positioning Kohl's to continue its turnaround efforts.
Looking ahead, Kohl's Q3 earnings—due in late November—will be the next major catalyst. The company has provided favorable guidance, projecting revenue and earnings above consensus. If it sustains current momentum, Kohl's could outperform those targets and return to year-over-year growth before fiscal year-end. Additionally, strong off-price trends at peers TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX) and Ross Stores (NASDAQ: ROST) support a more positive outlook for the segment.
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