Hi, y’all. Welcome back to The Opposition and happy Labor Day! I’m signing off from the newsletter for the next week to go on vacation with my family. I’ll be back in your inboxes before you know it. –Lauren ‘Political Suicide’: Dems See Huge GOP Vulnerability on Health CareRising costs and anti-vax policies offer grist for midterms.
THE DESCENT OF THE Centers for Disease Control and Prevention into an agency of anti-vaccine agendas and organizational chaos—see my Bulwark colleague Jonathan Cohn’s latest newsletter on this—has created additional fodder for Democrats already keen on campaigning on health care in 2026. The topic has been emphasized by several Democrats over the past few days. Sen. Patty Murray said it was “dangerous” for Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to remain in power and called for him to be fired. Rep. George Whitesides, who represents a competitive California district and who has a background in science and technology, said that “we must protect our seniors and our kids from the dangers of communicable diseases” and called for Kennedy to be removed from office. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer posted that Kennedy’s “stubborn, pigheaded, and conspiracy-based attacks on proven science are going to make many more people sick and cause more deaths.” He, too, urged President Donald Trump to immediately remove RFK Jr. It seems highly unlikely at this point that Trump will do that. But it would also be foolish to downplay the political significance of the chaos that Kennedy has overseen in the past few months. Among the staffers at Democratic campaign committees and super PACs that I spoke with last week, the CDC saga was seen as a component of a larger story that the party could tell about Donald Trump dismantling the health care system. And although part of that story, for some audiences, might end up being about Kennedy—his purges at the CDC, his war on vaccination, his dismantling the FDA—another part, likely more politically potent, would be health care becoming less affordable and less accessible. Affordability issues are already at the center of the messaging and advertising campaigns for the campaign committees and leading super PACs. Just this weekend, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee launched a digital ad blaming Trump for jacking up grocery prices and making Labor Day cookouts “ridiculously expensive.” And as I wrote last week, Democratic leaders are also focusing on rising energy prices. Health care costs will slot in as well. Democrats are already attacking Republicans for passing Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” that cut Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act, which could leave nearly 12 million Americans newly uninsured and unable to afford basic health care. When Republicans return to D.C., they will face pressure to extend the enhanced ACA subsidies, which were created with the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 and are set to expire at the end of the year. (The GOP caucus is split over the subsidies, with more conservative members vehemently opposed to what they see as protecting Obamacare.) “I do think it’s gonna be a health care election, but I think it’s gonna be wrapped into this whole issue of affordability,” said Brad Woodhouse, executive director of Protect Our Care. “There’s a wicked brew here that is amassing against Republicans, and it’s all self-inflicted,” Woodhouse added. “They’ve committed political suicide.” THE LOOMING SEPTEMBER 30 government-shutdown deadline gives Democratic leadership one of the highest-profile opportunities to corner Republicans on issues related to health care. Schumer and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries sent a letter to their GOP counterparts last week stressing that if they wanted Democrats to help pass the funding bill—which requires sixty votes to clear the Senate—then they needed to present a plan to address “the health care crisis Republicans have triggered in America.” The reference was to Medicaid cuts and the potential for rural hospital closures put in motion by the Trump-pushed reconciliation bill this summer. But in the coming week, Democratic senators also plan to grill Kennedy when he heads to the Hill to testify. Some Dem officials and health care advocates see parallels between the upcoming midterms and the 2018 cycle, when the party focused its campaigns on Trump’s failed attempt to repeal Obamacare. The difference this time around is that Republicans actually succeeded in passing their legislation. “Affordability will continue to be a major theme of the election and health care is probably Exhibit A in that conversation,” said Anthony Wright, executive director of Families USA, a consumer health advocacy organization that has pushed to expand health care access. “I think it has its own power because it is literally about taking care of yourself and your family. It has an emotional pull, and any impacts of that have the ability to punch through the information bubble that you happen to be in.” At least one Democratic-aligned advocacy group has launched an effort to get more doctors elected to Congress, with other left-leaning organizations eyeing fired public health workers as top recruits for competitive House races. Some Democratic congressional candidates have also noted that Trump’s reconciliation bill, Kennedy’s stewardship of HHS, and DOGE’s cuts to federal agencies allow candidates to tailor their message to their specific states and districts. Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff, for example, has been a leading critic of Trump’s push to shrink the CDC, given that it is based in Atlanta. When I asked Iowa Democratic Senate candidate Josh Turek what he thought would be the defining issue of the midterms, he brought up Medicaid cuts. But he also mentioned that Iowa’s cancer rate is rising faster than any other state’s, arguing that Iowans would be hurt by Trump’s budget cuts that have shuttered critical cancer research. It’s something he plans to highlight in his campaign. “[Voters] want someone that understands the issues that people are going through. And right now in Iowa and all across the country, we have a lot of people that are struggling,” Turek said. There are signs that Republicans also see health care as a major vulnerability going into next year. Sen. Joni Ernst, whose seat Turek is vying for, has recently told people close to her that she will not run for re-election. And though her reasons for doing so likely vary (an overall bad climate for Republicans is probably atop the list), health care notably was already one of her bigger vulnerabilities. Democrats pounced on the viral “we all are going to die” comment that Ernst made at a town hall earlier this year in response to constituents’ concerns about the Medicaid cuts. Ernst, who was elected in 2014 on a promise to repeal Obamacare (back before the legislation’s popularity had skyrocketed), was never able to find her footing after. But perhaps the most telling comment last week came from a far less high-profile conservative. Students for Trump cofounder and MAGA diehard Ryan Fournier pleaded with Republicans to pass the extended Obamacare subsidies, arguing that the president’s policy agenda—and their own political standing—could crumble without it. “Trump voters rely on premium tax credits,” he warned in a tweet. “Letting them vanish means higher costs, lower turnout, and a Democrat Senate.” 🫏 Donkey Business:— Both Republican and Democratic officials are considering hosting national conventions ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. According to Axios, Democratic National Committee chair Ken Martin floated the idea to party members during their summer meeting in Minneapolis last week. Not everyone was sold on it. But Martin’s hope is that a splashy event would bring in fundraising money and media coverage, as well as give potential 2028 presidential candidates a chance to boost their profile and rub elbows with other party leaders. As part of his pitch, Martin reminded DNC members that the party hosted midterm conventions a few times during the 1970s and early ’80s. After the Axios report came out, President Trump posted: “I am thinking of recommending a National Convention to the Republican Party, just prior to the Midterms. It has never been done before. STAY TUNED!!!” Jaime Harrison, who served as DNC chair during the Biden administration, tweeted that he tried to hold a midterm convention during the 2022 cycle, but was told no (presumably by the White House, which tends to call the shots). “I hope the DNC will do it this time,” Harrison said. My open tabs:— In Virginia’s Governor Race, a Democrat Strives to Be the Anti-Mamdani — Democrats zero in on a red state in the redistricting battle You’re a free subscriber to The Bulwark—the largest pro-democracy news and analysis bundle on Substack. 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