Liberation day woes.

"The greatest tragedies occur when people forget about uncertainty."

– Peter Bernstein

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·         The stock market looks packed with a lot of uncertainty as investors sell off stocks in early week trading with slight recovery on Tuesday.

·         Yields fell amid risk-off sentiment.

·         President Trump's "Liberation Day" announcement is today.

·         Jobs and manufacturing data are due later this week.

If there's anything that we do know, it's that uncertainty makes investors jittery and the markets volatile. Nobody knows how policy and events can impact companies and with today's anticipated tariff announcement, Wall Street is on edge.

U.S. stocks went the opposite way of their European and Asian counterparts early Tuesday and experienced some shaky trading. The S&P 500 rose 0.4% after soaring back from an early drop of 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down by 11 points, or less than 0.1%, after pinging between a loss of 480 points and a gain of nearly 140, while the Nasdaq composite added 0.9%.

April might be a new month, but major indexes are up to old volatile ways with treasury yields dropping, highlighting that investors might seek perceived safety in fixed income. U.S. stocks have posted their worst quarter versus the rest of the world's indexes since the 1980's and investors crouched in a defensive posture. The S&P 500 and tech-heavy NASDAQ just saw their worst quarterly performances since 2022.

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Liberation Day

Today's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement from the White House has investors clearly on edge.

"The president will be announcing a tariff plan that will roll back the unfair trade practices that have been ripping off our country for decades. He's doing this in the best interest of the American worker," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Monday.

"Tariff uncertainty has put an unexpected stranglehold on markets," Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise's chief market strategist, wrote in a report Monday.

On Wednesday President Trump plans to roll out a set of tariffs that he promises will free the United States from foreign goods. Most economic analyses believe average U.S. families would have to absorb the cost of his tariffs in the form of higher prices and lower incomes.  Among the U.S. businesses most vulnerable to tariffs are automobiles, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, alcohol makers, energy, and agriculture.

The President is optimistic that he can cut a deal after imposing them which means the tariffs may be short lived.

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The End is Near

Market uncertainty should "peak" around the Wednesday tariff deadline, according to Evercore ISI. In a note this week, Julian Emanuel wrote ...

In a note this week, Julian Emanuel wrote investors should resist tariff angst and accumulate stocks. "All you need is a little less uncertainty," the firm's senior managing director said Monday on CNBC's "Fast Money."

Emanuel compares the market pessimism to the March 2023 regional bank failures. "The mood this morning and over the weekend talking with clients and talking with colleagues is as negative as I can remember going back to when Silicon Valley Bank blew up," he said. "We didn't know the Fed was going to 'take care of business.'"

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Things to Watch:

1. VIX hints at calmer waters ahead: Volatility is low for stocks despite the looming tariff announcement. While the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) trades near 23, up from below 20 last week, it's not showing signs of disorderly or chaotic action as investors attempt to hedge tariff risk. It also hasn't gone to levels near 30 seen last December when the Federal Reserve delivered a bearish foresight on rate plans.
2. New economic data. The ISM's manufacturing index contracted for the first time this year while the prices paid index surged to the highest reading since June 2022, reflecting companies' continuing cost increases. The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing PMI registered a reading of 49.0 in March, down from February's 50.3 reading and below the 49.5 economists polled by Bloomberg had expected. 
3. Jobs data this week: Friday's March jobs report is key. The March nonfarm payrolls report is anticipated to show 130,000 jobs added, down from 151,000 in February, with unemployment remaining at 4.1%. Another report that sometimes flies under the radar is Challenger job cuts, due Thursday morning. It hit172,000 in February, the highest since July 2020, and analysts expect another rise in March, according to Trading Economics.

Job Openings Fell in February

Labor market data released Tuesday was weaker than expected. New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed 7.57 million jobs open at the end of February, a decrease from the 7.76 million seen in January. Job openings in February remained near a level last seen in early 2021.

Tesla Sales Drop Again in Key European Regions

Tesla registrations in many parts of Europe suffered in March as the quarter came to a close. Registrations are a proxy for official sales data, which the electric vehicle maker may release as early as today.

Here's a look at March registrations for Tesla EVs in some European markets compared to the year prior:

• France: 3,157 registrations, down 36.8%
• Norway: 2,211 registrations, down 63.9%.
• Sweden: 911 registrations, down 1%.
• Denmark: 593 registrations, down 65.6%
• Netherlands: 1,536 registrations, down 61%

Registrations in Spain, Portugal, and Italy bucked the trend and rose in March, according to Reuters, though they declined for the overall first quarter.

This data comes a week after the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) reported Tesla's registrations in the EU, UK, and European Free Trade Association fell 40.1% in February, to 16,888 EVs.

Tuesday Markets Snapshot

Index	Tuesday Close	Point Change	Percentage Change
S&P 500	5,633.07	+21.22	+0.38%
Dow Jones Industrial Average	41,989.96	-11.80	-0.03%
Nasdaq	17,449.89	+150.60	+0.87%

Market Movers:

• PVH (PVH) soared 15% in early trading after the owner of brands like Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings.
• Newsmax (NMAX) moved up 24% after rising more than 700% yesterday in its first day of trading following its IPO.
• Nvidia (NVDA) moved higher early Tuesday after dropping nearly 2% Monday on worries about future AI spending. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) fell 14% in the first quarter.
• Tesla (TSLA) went up about 6% in trading as investors await first quarter delivery numbers due today. Analysts expect deliveries of around 360,000, down from 387,000 in the same quarter a year ago. The stock fell 36% in the first quarter.
• MicroStrategy (MSTR) and Coinbase (COIN) both saw their shares climb about 2% on Tuesday.
• Bitcoin (/BTC) dove 12% from its December 31 close amid risk-off trading sentiment. Still, Bitcoin managed to close the quarter well above its March lows of below $80,000.
• Caesars Entertainment (CZR) and MGM Resorts (MGM) saw losses following disappointing data for February from the Nevada Gaming Control Board.
• Gold (/GC) hit a new record above $3,100 per ounce on Monday in what ended up being the best quarter for the yellow metal since 1986.
• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) dropped almost 4% after a judge rejected the company's $10 billion proposal to end tens of thousands of lawsuits alleging that its baby powder and other talc products cause ovarian cancer, Reuters reported.
• Crude oil (/CL) hit five-week highs above $71.50 per barrel earlier today as President Trump threatened to impose secondary tariffs on Russian crude and to attack Iran.
• CVS Health (CVS) was the best S&P 500 performer of the first quarter, up 51%.
• Deckers Outdoor (DECK) was the worst, dropping 45%.

Look Ahead

• Wednesday (4/2): ADP Employment Change, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, Factory Orders, MBA Mortgage Applications Index
• Thursday (4/3): Continuing Claims, EIA Natural Gas Inventories, Initial Claims, ISM Services, Trade Balance
• Friday (4/4): Nonfarm Payrolls, Average Workweek, Average Hourly Earnings, Unemployment Rate

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