Thailand Eyes a Potential Gaming BonanzaWith Thaksin behind it, bill allowing gaming complexes nears enactment
Probably in the first quarter of 2026, if not earlier, Thailand’s parliament is expected to pass legislation designed to produce a gaming bonanza to draw punters away from Singapore and the Philippines and revolutionize the country’s tourism industry despite conservative citizen misgivings. It is likely to take six years to get them up to speed. Called the Entertainment Complex Business Act, the bill is a comprehensive plan despite two decades of opposition to allow for the establishment of “entertainment complexes” to include casinos, hotels, entertainment venues, conference centers and theme parks in tourist-heavy venues across the country including Bangkok, Chiang Mai, Phuket, Chonburi, Rayong, Hua Hin and Pattaya. If Macau, Singapore, and the Philippines are any guide, these “entertainment complexes” – with a projected minimum investment requirement of nearly US$3 billion – are likely to be huge and grandiose, and responsible or some of Asia’s worst architecture. International gaming combines including Las Vegas Sands, Wynn Resorts, Caesars Entertainment, MGM China, Hard Rock Group, and Melco Resorts & Entertainment. and the Malaysia-based Genting Group, among others, are said to be circling for the chance to establish billion-dollar entertainment complexes, likely in consortia with domestic corporations, with the potential, according to Citigroup, of pretax margins of 40 percent to 50 percent. Establishing the venues is likely to be expensive and messy, both aboveboard and under the table as the multinational gaming companies vie for the permits to set up operations to claim a tourism jackpot. There are still no criteria on how the government will decide between operators, who would be on the selection committee, or what criteria the committee would use to select the winning bidders. Ben Kiatkwankul, a founding partner at Maverick Consulting Group in Bangkok, said government planners must consult with experienced authorities in Macau and Singapore to forestall what could be serious problems in getting the plans off the ground. “My God, this is the biggest disaster in the making,” said a Thai financial industry figure with close ties to the top of the Thai establishment. “These are money-making projects for them all,” a likely source of illicit funding to lawmakers harking back to the 1980s days of “buffet democracy (a little for me, a little for you)” when large infrastructure projects enriched scores of politicians illegally. Even without the considerable shadow of corruption, the Thai government has never shown itself particularly adept in planning major initiatives. The initiative to legalize casinos “faces challenges, compounded by political instability and internal divisions within the government,” according to a study by the Bangkok-based Maverick Consulting Group. “Inconsistent policies and shifting priorities further contribute to uncertainty surrounding the project's progression. These issues, combined with the broader unpredictability of the political landscape, cast substantial doubt on the feasibility and future of the proposed initiative.” Behind the bill, however, is the powerful figure of Thaksin Shinawatra, who remains the most potent political force in the country after returning from 15 years of self-exile in the face of corruption charges. He was released on parole in January from the hospital, reportedly suffering from high blood pressure and other ailments. His daughter Paetongtarn is prime minister. Speaking at an event in Bangkok in January shortly after the cabinet gave preliminary approval to the draft law, he said the government is seeking ways to control access to and collect tax revenue from online gaming, with 2 million to 4 million Thais already going online to gamble. Other countries, particularly China, have found that a poisoned chalice. As Asia Sentinel has reported, banking and law enforcement officials face formidable challenges in Hong Kong, Singapore, and other jurisdictions in the face of international criminal networks that span mainland China and much of Southeast Asia associated with online gaming which have spun out into not only the Philippines but Cambodia, Myanmar, the Marshall Islands, and other countries, with tens of thousands of luckless victims kidnapped or otherwise forced to operate gaming, investment, and sex scams that have ensnared millions of mainland Chinese looking for a gaming outlet via the internet, only to find themselves deep in credit card debt with no recourse. The cost to Chinese citizens from these scams has infuriated Chinese President Xi Jinping, who called on Cambodian officials to shut them down in the coastal city of Sihanoukville, whereupon thousands of mainlanders picked up and left. They have also been a problem in Myanmar border areas, where Chinese officials have called for a crackdown. With Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr agreeing with Xi’s call for increased regulation of the Philippine online gaming operations, known as POGOs, thousands of mainland Chinese were booted out of the country, although some are still operating clandestinely. More than 400 foreign nationals were arrested in a raid on an alleged scam hub in Pasay City two weeks ago. Certainly the stakes are high. Thailand is by far Asia’s biggest tourism destination, particularly for Chinese and Eastern European tourists, its white-sand beaches, peacock blue waters, gorgeous temples and party scene drawing 39.8 million international tourists and earning US$60.5 billion in 2019 before the Covid-19 pandemic decimated the industry. It finally recovered to 35.05 million in 2024 with earnings of US$48.45 billion. The Hong Kong-based investment group CLSA estimates gross gaming revenues could add US$15 billion to that annually. That would mean tourism would comprise nearly 12 percent of Thailand’s US$526 billion 2024 GDP. A November 2024 Citigroup report on a legalized casino industry, quoted by industry newsletter Inside Asian Gaming, forecasts that if the bill goes through in its present form, Thailand would become the third largest gaming market in the world, behind Macau and Las Vegas and bigger than Singapore. Citi analysts George Choi, Preenapa Detchsri and Timothy Chau write that Thailand is “likely to reshape the revenue pie of the global gaming industry.” The Thai cabinet last month approved the original draft proposing five casino resorts at locations following three rounds of public consultation. It faces significant opposition in Thailand’s conservative religious Buddhist society at large, with critics warning of potential social harms that accompany casino gaming, including money laundering, murder, extortion and loan sharking. Gambling remains both illegal and morally frowned upon in Thailand despite the country’s louche image, while at the same time remaining fantastically popular in illegal casinos. There are limited forms of legal betting including cockfighting, horse racing, and the government lottery. The government is dedicated to keeping the locals out of the casinos by demanding evidence of a huge personal bond before they’re let through the door. The bill was to be returned to the Thai cabinet from public consultation earlier last week. The cabinet must approve it and send it to Parliament for final approval. In its current form, it would legalize Thailand's underground gambling industry and establish casino-entertainment complexes. It defines an "entertainment complex" as a venue that includes a casino alongside at least four other types of businesses, such as hotels, shopping malls, theaters, and meeting venues. The physical size of a casino within an entertainment complex must not exceed 10 percent of the total land area. Thai nationals attempting to gamble in the casinos would be required to display proof of paid income tax for three consecutive years and an entry levy of Bt5,000 ($148.40) per person. To thrive, according to the Maverick Group study, “Thailand's nascent casino industry needs decisive government action: clear objectives, a commitment to responsible development, and a market-driven approach.” The study cites Macau's approach, which prioritizes a market-driven model over strict government control. “This framework emphasizes stability in areas such as taxation, regulations, and operational limitations. Crucially, it provides clear assurances to investors regarding the number of casino licenses that will be issued, fostering a predictable and transparent business environment. This approach encourages investment and competition while maintaining responsible oversight of the industry.” This has never been Thailand’s strong suit. As the study points out, none of Thailand’s major domestic hospitality and development companies including established names like Minor International, Dusit Thani, Central Group, and The Mall Group have yet to make any public expression of interest. They may know something. This is among the stories/excerpts we choose to make widely available.If you wish to get the full Asia Sentinel experience and access more exclusive content, please do subscribe to us for US$10/month or US$100/year.
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