Last summer, Chipotle Mexican Grill's (CMG) executives were in crisis mode... All across social media, the burrito chain caught flak from diners.
Here's an Example of the Fast-Food 'Value Crisis'
By Marc Chaikin, founder, Chaikin Analytics
Last summer, Chipotle Mexican Grill's (CMG) executives were in crisis mode...
All across social media, the burrito chain caught flak from diners.
On social media platform TikTok, popular food critic Keith Lee posted a video of his Chipotle order. As he dug into his chicken al pastor bowl, he put it bluntly...
Where the chicken at?
Lee has about 17 million followers on TikTok. His video quickly went viral. It received more than 2 million likes.
In another TikTok video, a Chipotle diner complained...
They treat us like they're rationing. It's like we're on the Hunger Games... It's really sad.
Chipotle tried to stop the trend. In a video, then-CEO Brian Niccol publicly denied that the company had reduced its portion sizes at all.
Niccol's video didn't stop the criticism.
In fact, the trend picked up steam...
Customers started recording Chipotle employees as they prepared their food. Folks wanted to make sure that workers scooped enough meat into their orders. This prompted employees to complain about getting stressed out from the constant recording.
A Wells Fargo Securities analyst named Zachary Fadem even did his own research experiment...
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The Numbers Showed Chipotle's Portion Problem
He ordered 75 burrito bowls from different Chipotle locations around New York City. And he recorded the weight of each one. Ideally, they should have all weighed about the same – since the orders were identical.
But Fadem's analysis showed huge variations between the burrito bowls.
The median bowl weighed roughly 21.5 ounces. A few bowls weighed more than 25 ounces. But many were well below 20 ounces. And the lightest bowl was far below the median. Here's a chart of the results...
In short, Fadem's numbers showed that Chipotle had a problem.
He didn't prove the company's burrito bowls were getting smaller. To do that, he would have needed weights from months – or years – in the past to provide a comparison.
Still, his data showed that a lot of folks were getting much less food than they should have.
Chipotle eventually admitted that its customers were right...
The company did its own investigation into the issue. It found that about 10% of its restaurants were skimping on portion sizes.
In a new video, Niccol said that the employees at these locations "needed to be retrained."
Small Portion Sizes Didn't Decrease Chipotle's Sales Much, But the Stock Is Struggling
Based on Chipotle's results over the past year, its customers apparently aren't that upset...
Its full-year 2024 sales grew more than 7%. And most of that growth was due to folks ordering more – rather than price increases.
But that may be changing...
We can see a problem when we look at Chipotle's stock. It has cratered since the start of the year. As the chart below shows, so far this year, CMG shares are down about 17% versus the S&P 500 Index's roughly 5% decline...
That's heavy underperformance.
Meanwhile, Chipotle's portion-size crisis is an example of a bigger trend that has hit the U.S. restaurant industry...
Sure, the company may have weathered its PR nightmare last year. But folks are feeling the squeeze of high prices for food. So it's no surprise that they're looking for better value.
And across the industry, other chains are faring worse. Tomorrow, I'll get into some numbers behind this... and look at the reality that consumers are facing.
Good investing,
Marc Chaikin
Market View
Major Indexes and Notable Sectors
# Hld: Bullish Neutral Bearish
Dow 30
-0.19%
3
18
9
S&P 500
+0.53%
29
327
142
Nasdaq
+1.13%
6
77
17
Small Caps
+0.17%
164
1223
514
Bonds
-0.6%
Information Technology
+1.57%
2
54
13
— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks and Large Cap stocks remain Bearish. Major indexes are all bearish.
* * * *
Sector Tracker
Sector movement over the last 5 days
Energy
+2.43%
Utilities
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Industrials
-2.79%
Staples
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Health Care
-3.39%
Materials
-3.53%
Information Technology
-4.46%
Real Estate
-4.49%
Communication
-4.57%
Financial
-5.04%
Discretionary
-6.57%
* * * *
Industry Focus
Innovative Technology Services
14
76
5
Over the past 6 months, the Innovative Technology subsector (XITK) has outperformed the S&P 500 by +12.86%. Its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Strong, with more Bullish than Bearish stocks. It is currently ranked #1 of 21 subsectors and has moved up 2 slots over the past week.
Top Stocks
DOX
Amdocs Limited
ACMR
ACM Research, Inc.
AMPL
Amplitude, Inc.
* * * *
Top Movers
Gainers
TSLA
+7.59%
MU
+7.4%
PLTR
+7.17%
VST
+6.61%
NVDA
+6.42%
Losers
DLTR
-5.74%
ERIE
-5.54%
BF.B
-5.08%
TGT
-4.86%
DG
-4.82%
* * * *
Earnings Report
Earnings Surprises
ADBE Adobe Inc.
Q1
$5.08
Beat by $0.11
S SentinelOne, Inc.
Q4
$0.04
Beat by $0.03
CXM Sprinklr, Inc.
Q4
$0.10
Beat by $0.03
* * * *
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