Trump, Trump, Goose

If it walks like a goose....

Mark Halperin

Oct 13

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Sportsnet @Sportsnet

There’s a duck chilling on the field at the @Dodgers vs @Padres game. 🦆 This is peak #Postseason

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****

TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP

Those of us who thought that unfolding events related to Mar-a-Lago would be at the top of the news stack every moment until Election Day turned out to be wrong.

But, oh, today, we were right.

Nothing that has happened in the last 24 hours (or will happen in the next 24 hours or 24 days) will change these three realities, which “we” were right about long ago:

1. Donald Trump improperly took government documents to his home/club, improperly handled classified information, engaged in an effort to improperly refuse formal requests to return the documents, likely engaged in an illegal effort to obstruct justice, and lied about it all.

2. Merrick Garland has to decide whether it is right for America to indict Trump for all this, not whether the facts demonstrate the law was broken.

3. Executive branch officials (DOJ and FBI) have engaged and will continue to engage in authorized leaks about this case to the Washington Post, the New York Times, and the Wall Street Journal to further their interests.

In this latest twist, the Post and Times had sequential exclusives.

The Post went first:

A Trump employee has told federal agents about moving boxes of documents at Mar-a-Lago at the specific direction of the former president, according to people familiar with the investigation, who say the witness account — combined with security-camera footage — offers key evidence of Donald Trump’s behavior as investigators sought the return of classified material….
The witness is now considered a key part of the Mar-a-Lago investigation, these people said, offering details about the former president’s alleged actions and instructions to subordinates that could have been an attempt to thwart federal officials’ demands for the return of classified and government documents.
Multiple witnesses have told the FBI they tried to talk Trump into cooperating with the National Archives and Records Administration and the Justice Department as those agencies for months sought the return of sensitive or historical government records, people familiar with the situation said….
Within Trump’s orbit, there have been months of dueling accusations and theories about who may be cooperating with the federal government. Some of the former president’s closest aides have continued to work with Trump even as they have seen FBI agents show up at their houses to question them and serve subpoenas.

The Times:

Key from The National Archives, the federal agency that oversees presidential records, spent much of 2021 attempting to retrieve boxes of records that its officials had been told were in the White House residence at the end of the Trump presidency.
Some of Mr. Trump’s advisers tried to facilitate their return; one lawyer for Mr. Trump, Alex Cannon, told Mr. Trump to ship the boxes back as they were, instead of going through them, and that the archivists would return whatever was personal property, two people briefed on the matter said. Mr. Cannon told Mr. Trump’s aides not to go through the boxes because it was unclear what was in them, and the materials might require security clearances.
Mr. Trump instead went through the boxes himself in December, according to a person familiar with the move, and the archives sent people to retrieve 15 of them a month later. When they got the boxes, they found 184 classified documents, prompting alarm.

Now we go into Rumsfeld mode.

KNOWN KNOWNS

* Between the Mar-a-Lago news and the 1/6 hearing, the Dominant Media will be all Trump from now through and beyond primetime cable.

* The name “Walt Nauta” will be googled a lot today.

* This, from the Washington Post, is very true:

Within the Justice Department and FBI, the witness’s account has been a closely held secret as agents continue to gather evidence in the high-stakes investigation. In addition to wanting to keep the information they have gathered so far under wraps, people familiar with the situation said, authorities are also concerned that if or when the witness’s identity eventually becomes public, that person could face harassment or threats from Trump supporters.

* These tweets sum of up the view of Blue Twitter perfectly:

Andrew Weissmann 🌻 @AWeissmann_

Between this ⬇️and the testimony of Alex Cannon (to name just two recent developments) Trump's MAL goose is cooked. As I have oft said, the issue is no longer the proof, but DOJ's will. Trump worker told FBI about moving MAL boxes on Trump's orders

washingtonpost.comTrump worker told FBI about moving Mar-a-Lago boxes on ex-president’s ordersThe employee told federal agents about moving boxes at Mar-a-Lago at the explicit direction of Donald Trump after a subpoena seeking th...

Ryan Goodman @rgoodlaw

Astonishing level of evidence. That would convince jurors. Witnesses have told federal investigators: After subpoena for classified docs, "Trump told people to move boxes to his residence at the property"! "Corroborated by the security-camera footage"!

Richard Signorelli @richsignorelli

This increases the chance of Trump being indicted after the upcoming election unless Garland is dead set against it. My Washington Post subscription allows me to share access to great journalism. Check out this gift article, at no cost to you. Read here:

wapo.stTrump worker told FBI about moving Mar-a-Lago boxes on ex-president’s ordersThe employee told federal agents about moving boxes at Mar-a-Lago at the explicit direction of Donald Trump after a subpoena seeking th...

* This was so predictable, as in “shocking but not surprising”:

* The timing of these “leaks” is neither a coincidence nor random.

* The 1/6 investigative and production team teed up today’s session to stoke massive media interest; it has been well rehearsed; it will be treated as a blockbuster by the Dominant Media. The Washington Post has the best details on what you can expect from the hearing.

* This sentence from the Wall Street Journal belongs in a time capsule:

Mr. Trump has said he did nothing wrong, continues to falsely claim the election was stolen and calls the select committee a partisan witch hunt

KNOWN UNKNOWNS

* Is “it” Walt Nauta or not?

The New York Times responded to having to eat the Washington Post’s dust by going one big step further:

A long-serving aide to former President Donald J. Trump was captured on security camera footage moving boxes out of a storage room at Mar-a-Lago, Mr. Trump’s residence in Florida, both before and after the Justice Department issued a subpoena in May demanding the return of all classified documents, according to three people familiar with the matter.
The footage showed Walt Nauta, a former military aide who left the White House and then went to work for Mr. Trump at Mar-a-Lago, moving boxes from a storage room that became a focus of the Justice Department’s investigation, according to the people briefed on the matter. The inquiry has centered on whether Mr. Trump improperly kept national security records after he left the White House and obstructed the government’s repeated efforts to get them back.
As part of its investigation, the Justice Department has interviewed Mr. Nauta on several occasions, according to one of the people. Those interviews started before the F.B.I. executed a search warrant at Mar-a-Lago on Aug. 8 and carted off more than 11,000 documents, including about 100 that bore classification markings. Mr. Nauta has answered questions but is not formally cooperating with the investigation of Mr. Trump’s handling of the documents….
The Washington Post reported on Wednesday that Mr. Trump directed an employee who had been interviewed by the F.B.I. to move boxes at Mar-a-Lago. It is not clear whether that employee was Mr. Nauta, and a person familiar with the matter and with Mr. Trump’s orbit said it could be a different staff member.

* What has the interaction between Donald Trump and Walt Nauta been?

* What is Trump’s attitude toward Nauta?

* If it wasn’t Nauta who the Washington Post referenced, who is it?

* What is the precise motives of those putting out this information now?

* Is this coming from DOJ, FBI, or Trump World?

* What will be the lede of the 1/6 hearing?

****

MIDTERM ESSENTIAL READING

There is a clear sense in the politico-media world that the midterms are now on a trajectory for something substantially bigger than a Red trickle (although still not a tsunami).

Meaning, the betting currently is that the floor on House Republican pickups is closer to 20 than 10, and maybe above 20. And the betting is now that Republicans will take the Senate majority.

This overall view is reinforced by both anecdotal evidence and data.

At the top of the anecdotal heap is a Democratic president who normally considers Altoona to be far enough is spending time 3,000 miles from DC in Oregon.

Politico:

Joe Biden’s appearance this week on the campaign trail in Oregon says as much about Democrats’ struggles in the reliable blue state as it does about his own careful approach to the midterms.
Biden advisers and close political allies are worried about a confluence of factors that threaten to flip the open contest for governor in the state. A third-party challenger is pulling more support from Democrats than the GOP; four contested congressional races, including one over the border in Washington state, have resulted in a barrage of Republican TV ad attacks; and the uneven economic recovery and spiraling quality of life concerns around homelessness and crime are weighing on voters.

Some data from the Associated Press:

More U.S. adults are now feeling financially vulnerable amid high inflation — a political risk for President Joe Biden and his fellow Democrats one month before the midterm elections.
Some 46% of people now call their personal financial situation poor, up from 37% in March, according to a new poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. That’s a notable downturn at a particularly inopportune moment for Biden, given that the share of Americans who felt positive about their finances had stayed rock steady over the last few years — even during the economic turmoil of the COVID-19 pandemic.
And while a majority of Americans see high prices as beyond Biden’s control, they continue to disapprove of his handling of the economy overall.
Overall, 54% say their finances are good in the latest survey. That figure was at least 62% through the global recession caused by the pandemic in 2020, and even in late 2021 and early 2022 as prices began to rise across the country. But inflation’s prolonged bite has left the U.S. and wider world facing the possibility of a downturn and, despite solid job growth, more consumers are feeling the pain.

With Ron Johnson looking solidified in Wisconsin, and the bottom not dropping out for Herschel Walker, Republicans could end up +1 or +2, or even +3 in the Senate, which would, given the flow of expectations, be a big blow to the White House and the last two years of Biden’s term.

As for the House, Karl Rove says Speaker Pelosi is bluffing, Henry Olsen says the campaign spending patterns suggest a big Red year, and Tom Edsall explores worries that Democrats are going to underperform with Hispanic voters.

Rob Pyers @rpyers

Four weeks out from the November election, here's how the general independent expenditures stand in the party-targeted House and US Senate races as of this morning.

* Part II of Al Giordano’s 2022 Midterms Almanac is out. The veteran political reporter profiles 37 swing-district US House races, offering insight into the ground-level dynamics “to help readers more accurately measure in what races you can make a difference by participating in democracy (it’s not a spectator sport!) with 30 days to go until Election Day.” The newsletter goes to donors of $80 to the nonprofit Fund for Authentic Journalism in the same calendar year — and Giordano (who Vanity Fair described in 2008 as “the prophet of the Obama paradigm shift”) is generously offering 37.5% off to Wide World of News readers at a discount price of $50. Subscribers will also receive, prior to Election Day, Giordano’s midterm election projections; in 2018 he accurately projected the Democratic pickup of exactly 40 House seats. Readers can make use of the discount via this link and will be sent same day delivery of the 2022 Midterms Almanac, Parts I and II.

* The New York Times looks at how some Republican candidates are talking out of both sides of their mouths about Donald Trump – which could account for the Mar-a-Lago “leaks” and the timing of the 1/6 hearing.

* How worried are Democrats about immigration as an issue? You will want to read twin New York Post stories, one on what Nancy Pelosi said on Manhattan, and this:

Gov. Kathy Hochul says repeated pleas to President Biden about the worsening “humanitarian crisis” caused by a flood of migrants into New York City have fallen on deaf ears — but she continued to sidestep the issue of whether his open-border immigration policies are also to blame.
“We really are looking for a federal response to this – to take ownership of a crisis and we’ll be there to help but this belongs to the federal government,” Hochul, a self-described “Biden Democrat,” exasperatedly told reporters in Manhattan.

****

ESSENTIAL READING/VIEWING

* So much for Washington pushing back on the Saudis any time soon with the whip hand:

Saudi Arabia responded Thursday to a barrage of criticism from the United States over a decision by the Saudi-led oil producing cartel and its allies to cut production, saying the decision was based solely on “economic considerations” while denying it was “politically motivated” against the United States.
The unusually detailed and often caustic statement, attributed to a Saudi Foreign Ministry official, came after the White House and members of Congress condemned the kingdom for a decision by OPEC Plus last week to cut its oil output by 2 million barrels a day, a move that could boost oil prices in the United States and worldwide. (Washington Post)

* The Wall Street Journal profiles the man investigating Hunter Biden,David Weiss, Delaware’s top federal prosecutor.

* Dear citizens of Blue America:

If you want to understand the Red mindset, read these tweets not with anger but with an opoen mind: