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Workday, Seriously, It's Time to Buy This SaaS Leader
Written by Thomas Hughes. First Published: 2/26/2026.
Key Points
- Workday is on track to hit multiyear lows amid a fear-driven sell-off; its stock oversold to deep value territory.
- AI disruption fears are overblown; this company is growing and cementing itself as an AI automation leader.
- Institutions buy as price action declines, and even analyst trends reveal the value.
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Workday's (NASDAQ: WDAY) share price decline didn't end with its Q4 2025 earnings; it extended to long-term lows, creating a more attractive entry for investors. Guidance missed consensus and AI disruption fears persist, but the miss was small, guidance remains solid, and disruption may not unfold the way the market expects.
Some AI-first companies will try to move into Workday's territory by turning models into full HR and finance software. But incumbents like Workday are embedding AI into their existing platforms, and because they're already deeply integrated into enterprise workflows and data, they may be harder to displace than the market fears.
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Get the free report on how to position yourself nowAnalysts reacted unfavorably to the earnings news. Jefferies downgraded to Hold and several firms trimmed price targets, calling out the abrupt CEO change: co-founder and Executive Chairman Aneel Bhusri is returning to lead the company through its next phase.
Workday Accelerates Growth and Profitability in Q4 2025
Workday had a solid quarter in Q4, with revenue growth accelerating sequentially to 14.5%. The $2.53 billion in revenue topped MarketBeat's reported consensus by 40 basis points, driven by subscriptions, which rose 15.7% year-over-year, and the strength carried through to the bottom line.
Margin performance was notable: GAAP and adjusted operating margins widened by several hundred basis points. A 420-basis-point improvement in adjusted operating margin produced a 32% increase in operating income and a 28% increase in adjusted earnings — roughly 650 basis points better than expected.
Guidance was the sticking point: Q1 and full-year 2026 revenue forecasts missed consensus. Still, the company projects 13% topline growth in Q1, 12.5% for the year, and maintains a robust adjusted operating margin. Price action may reset on the guidance miss, but it is unlikely to remain depressed for long. WDAY's consensus price target sits roughly 100% above recent support levels, and even conservative scenarios imply meaningful upside.
Institutional Support and Share Buybacks Underpin WDAY Rebound Outlook
Two factors that support a potential WDAY rebound are capital returns and strong institutional ownership. Capital returns come entirely from share repurchases, which steadily reduce the share count. 2025 buybacks lowered the share count by about 0.4%, a modest but meaningful improvement in shareholder leverage — and institutions are participating.
Institutional holders own more than 90% of the stock and have been accumulating for seven consecutive quarters, including the first two months of Q1 2026. Net activity in Q1 2026 showed roughly $1.15 bought for each $1 sold, a bullish tilt. That ramp in buying to offset selling suggests institutions will likely continue to support the stock despite the "tepid" guidance.
Workday's balance sheet reflects the impact of buybacks, acquisitions, and growth investments but raises no immediate red flags. The cash balance is healthy and flat year-over-year; a decline in current assets is offset by increases elsewhere, leaving total assets higher. Liabilities are up and equity has contracted somewhat, but leverage remains light — about 2x cash and under 0.5x equity — providing an easy path to reduce debt and improve the equity position as 2026 progresses.
Catalyst for Workday Stock: Yes, They Exist
Clear catalysts for Workday in 2026 include continued revenue growth, improving cash flow, and the potential to beat quarterly and full-year guidance. Management flagged macro uncertainty and longer deal-closing timelines, which explains the cautious outlook. Still, Workday is well positioned to outperform quarterly results over the coming year, which could prompt guidance raises and a rebound in analyst and market sentiment.
Trading near $115, WDAY sits at levels not seen since the depths of the COVID-19 panic — a zone that offers attractive upside if the company executes. Given the fundamentals, institutional support, and ongoing buybacks, a rebound from these new lows is likely.
Marvell's Big Earnings Win Could Be the Start of Something Bigger
Written by Leo Miller. First Published: 3/10/2026.
Key Points
- Marvell popped sharply after earnings, as the report delivered a clear beat-and-raise and improved visibility into near-term demand.
- The quarter came in ahead of expectations, but the bigger takeaway was a meaningful lift to the company’s multi-year outlook, reinforcing momentum in custom silicon.
- The update also helped shift Street sentiment, including a notable skeptic turning more constructive on the stock.
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In custom silicon, Marvell Technology (NASDAQ: MRVL) is often viewed as playing second fiddle to its much larger semiconductor peer Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO). Recently, however, Marvell has been the stronger performer. Over the past six months, Marvell's total return is north of 30%, while Broadcom's is under 5%.
Contributing significantly to Marvell's outperformance was its latest earnings release, which sent the shares up more than 18%.
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Get the free report on how to position yourself nowMarvell's beat-and-raise results not only clarified the company's outlook but also signaled strength for the broader custom silicon market.
Marvell Posts Beats, Significantly Upgrades Two-Year Guidance
In Q4 of fiscal year 2026 (FY2026), Marvell reported revenue of $2.22 billion, a 22% year-over-year (YOY) increase. (Note that Marvell's fiscal year is offset from the calendar year.) Revenue slightly topped expectations of $2.21 billion.
Adjusted earnings per share rose 33% to $0.80, reflecting meaningful operating leverage and beating estimates of $0.79. Marvell's data-center end market was the primary growth driver for FY2026, with sales up nearly 47% YOY—outpacing the firm's overall growth of 42%. Data centers accounted for 74% of revenue for both the full year and the latest quarter.
Perhaps the most impactful news was the company's forward guidance. For FY2027, Marvell expects revenue to approach $11 billion, implying more than 30% YOY growth. Since the last earnings call, cloud capital-expenditure expectations have continued to rise.
The company now forecasts 40% YOY growth in its data-center end market—well above the 25% YOY rate it had outlined for FY2027 at the prior call. This is the second consecutive quarter Marvell has raised data-center growth expectations for FY2027.
In September 2025, Marvell had been guiding that growth at just 18%. In less than six months the company more than doubled its outlook, showing strong momentum in its most important business segment.
Marvell also updated its FY2028 outlook, now projecting total revenue to rise about 40% YOY to roughly $15 billion—$2 billion higher than the outlook provided three months earlier. The company expects adjusted EPS of "well over" $5 in FY2028. Using $5 as a baseline, Marvell is projecting adjusted EPS to grow at a compound annual rate of at least 33% over the next two years. Even after the post-earnings run-up, that trajectory supports a constructive view on the stock.
Marvell and Broadcom Align: Custom Chip Development Is on the Rise
Marvell executives echoed remarks from Broadcom's CEO Hock Tan, signaling a broader industry trend. During the call, Marvell CEO Matt Murphy said, “We are seeing an unprecedented level of activity across multiple new engagements as hyperscalers increase their cadence of custom chip development.” He noted that custom chips are “proliferating across the hyperscale ecosystem” as inference-optimized hardware becomes increasingly important.
Hock Tan expressed a similar view on Broadcom's earnings call, noting that many custom-chip buyers are moving toward developing two chips a year simultaneously.
This trend reflects hyperscalers and large-model developers' efforts to monetize AI models, which increases demand for inference. Better training chips enable more capable models, while optimized inference chips let companies commercialize those models efficiently. If firms produce leading training models without matching inference hardware, they risk losing their advantage before they can monetize.
It's encouraging that the top two players in custom chip design are seeing the same tailwinds. Increased custom-chip activity is a positive for both Marvell and Broadcom.
MRVL Wins Over Key Skeptic, Robust Guidance Supports Outlook
Marvell reiterated confidence in its relationship with leading custom-chip buyer Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN). The company raised its revenue-growth forecast tied to the Amazon partnership to 20% for FY2027, expects additional growth in FY2028, and remains actively engaged in competing for the next generation of the program.
Notably, Marvell's report appears to have changed the stance of Benchmark analyst Cody Acree. Acree had been one of the more vocal skeptics and downgraded the stock to a Hold in December 2025.
Now Acree has flipped, upgrading Marvell to a Buy and assigning a $130 price target—well above the stock's current price near $90.
Marvell's valuation is certainly more demanding after the post-earnings surge. The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 24x, roughly in line with its 52-week average near 24.5x. Given the company's bullish guidance and the momentum in custom-chip design, the outlook remains constructive.
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