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Just For You Wall Street Loves FIGS—Why Do Price Targets Predict Pullback?Submitted by Jennifer Ryan Woods. First Published: 3/4/2026. 
In Brief - FIGS stock has surged nearly 260% over the past year, hitting a price not seen since shortly after its 2021 IPO.
- Q4 revenue topped $200 million—the company's best quarter ever—with scrubwear sales up 35% and international sales jumping 55%.
- Despite the rally and bullish analyst commentary, the consensus price target sits almost 30% below current levels.
After a stunning plunge following its 2021 IPO, medical and lifestyle apparel company FIGS, Inc. (NYSE: FIGS) has returned to levels it hasn't seen in nearly four years. The stock, trading above $17, has climbed roughly 260% over the past year, including a 58% gain in the last month alone. The rally has been driven by strong earnings and a wave of bullish analyst commentary. Yet the consensus 12-month price target is just $12.25—almost 30% below the current price. That gap raises the question: how much of FIGS' recovery is supported by fundamentals and how much is momentum? A closer look at the company's history and recent results provides some answers. Famed historian Yuval Noah Harari recently issued a warning that should send a shiver down the spine of every American. He predicts the emergence of a massive new useless class. These aren't just people who are temporarily unemployed. These are people who have become economically irrelevant. As Luke Lango and I just exposed in our recent interview, we have reached the singularity. For the first time in 250 years, intelligence has been decoupled from labor. During America's first 1776 moment, the steam engine replaced muscle. In this new 1776 moment, AI is replacing the human mind.
This is why you see the Magnificent 7 tech giants adding trillions in value while the real economy feels like it's in a death spiral. The divide is widening. On one side: the useless class who cling to old-world skills. On the other: the new aristocracy who own the assets of the technological republic. Luke and I have identified the three specific money moves our research indicates you must make to ensure you stay on the winning side of this divide. See the three moves to stay on the winning side of AI Early investors saw a quick windfall after the IPO, which debuted in May 2021 at $22 and climbed to about $50 within a month. The pandemic boosted demand for medical apparel, but as COVID-19 eased, shares sharply reversed course and were trading below $8 within a year. For the next several years the stock largely stayed in the single digits, dipping below $4 in April 2025 before beginning another upward move. Earnings Momentum Sparks Rally FIGS posted steady gains after positive Q1 and Q2 2025 earnings reports, and the Q3 2025 results released on Nov. 6 accelerated the momentum. That report showed stronger-than-expected revenue growth, solid demand across core categories and healthy margins despite tariff headwinds. The company raised its full-year guidance for net revenue and adjusted EBITDA margins, prompting a positive market reaction and an upgrade from Zacks Research to Strong Buy from Hold. Momentum continued after the Q4 2025 earnings report on Feb. 26. The quarter produced a 33% increase in revenue—the company's best quarterly revenue to date—pushing sales past $200 million. Management highlighted growth in active customers and higher average order values, and even noted the branding boost from outfitting Team USA's medical staff at the Winter Olympics. Scrubwear, FIGS' core product and more than three-quarters of net revenue, rose 35% in the quarter, while international sales jumped 55%. For the year, net revenue reached a record $630 million, up 14% year-over-year. Despite tariff pressures that compressed gross margins, profitability was solid: full-year adjusted EBITDA margin exceeded targets by more than 200 basis points. Analysts Applaud Earnings and Outlook FIGS issued a constructive outlook, citing continued demand possibly supported by growth in healthcare employment, plans to expand into new international markets, prioritized growth initiatives across its businesses and a continued share buyback program. For fiscal 2026, management expects net revenue to grow 10% to 12%, with improved profitability targets. Analysts reacted with a flurry of positive notes. Barclays upgraded to Strong Buy from Hold, KeyCorp moved to Overweight from Sector Weight with a $17 price target, Goldman Sachs shifted to Hold from Strong Sell, BTIG reiterated a Buy with a $15 target, and Telsey Advisory raised its target to $15 from $9. FIGS Stock Pushes Past Price Targets Strong earnings have clearly driven FIGS to four-year highs. Shares had already started rising ahead of the Q4 report, jumping nearly 14% in the session before the release, and the rally intensified afterward—the stock surged 24% on the first trading day following the results and added another 10% the next day. As of March 4, the stock was trading above $17, more than double Morgan Stanley's $8 target issued in January and exceeding KeyCorp's $17 target. The gap between bullish analyst sentiment and relatively modest price targets suggests analysts appreciate FIGS' improving fundamentals but remain cautious about valuation. At current levels, shares trade at a price-to-earnings ratio near 90, implying much of the company's expected growth may already be priced in. There are few publicly traded direct competitors to FIGS, but lululemon athletica inc. (NASDAQ: LULU)—a dominant lifestyle apparel player—is trading at a P/E of less than 12 (MarketBeat comparison). The bottom line: investors are applauding FIGS' turnaround, but skepticism remains about whether the stock can sustain this ascent or if a pullback is likely.
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