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Workday, Seriously, It's Time to Buy This SaaS Leader
By Thomas Hughes. Publication Date: 2/26/2026.
Key Points
- Workday is on track to hit multiyear lows amid a fear-driven sell-off; its stock oversold to deep value territory.
- AI disruption fears are overblown; this company is growing and cementing itself as an AI automation leader.
- Institutions buy as price action declines, and even analyst trends reveal the value.
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Workday's (NASDAQ: WDAY) stock decline didn't stop with its Q4 2025 earnings report; it extended to long-term lows, creating a more attractive entry point for investors. While guidance missed consensus and AI disruption fears persist, the miss was modest, the guidance remains solid, and the feared disruption may not play out the way the market expects — at least not yet.
AI-first startups may try to encroach on Workday's turf by turning models into full HR and finance applications. But incumbents like Workday are embedding AI into their platforms, and because they're already deeply integrated into enterprise workflows and data, they may be harder to displace than the market fears.
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The analyst reaction to the results was largely negative. Jefferies downgraded the stock to Hold and several firms cut price targets, highlighting the abrupt leadership change disclosed in the release: co‑founder and Executive Chairman Aneel Bhusri is returning to the CEO role to steer the company through its next phase.
Workday Accelerates Growth and Profitability in Q4 2025
Workday reported a solid Q4, with revenue growth accelerating sequentially to 14.5% year‑over‑year. Revenue of $2.53 billion beat MarketBeat's reported consensus by 40 basis points, driven by subscription revenue, which rose 15.7% year‑over‑year, and that strength flowed through to the bottom line.
Margin performance was also strong: both GAAP and adjusted operating margins widened by several hundred basis points. A 420‑basis‑point improvement in adjusted operating margin contributed to a 32% increase in operating income and a 28% increase in adjusted earnings — a result well ahead of expectations.
Guidance was the primary concern: projected Q1 and full‑year 2026 revenue came in below consensus. Still, the company is forecasting roughly 13% top‑line growth in Q1 and 12.5% for the full year, with adjusted operating margins remaining healthy. Short‑term price action may reset, but it's unlikely to stay depressed. WDAY's consensus price target sits roughly 100% above recent critical support levels, and even the low end of analyst ranges implies upside.
Institutional Support and Share Buybacks Underpin Rebound Outlook
Two factors that support the case for a WDAY rebound are capital returns and strong institutional ownership. Capital returns currently consist entirely of share repurchases, which reduce share count over time. 2025 repurchases trimmed the share count by about 0.4%, a modest but meaningful improvement in shareholder leverage — and institutions appear to be taking notice.
Institutional holders own more than 90% of the stock and have been net buyers for seven consecutive quarters, including the first two months of Q1 2026. Net flow in Q1 2026 equates to roughly $1.15 bought for every $1 sold — modestly positive and trending bullish — and the uptick in buying to offset selling suggests institutions are likely to continue accumulating despite the "tepid" guidance.
Workday's balance sheet reflects the effects of buybacks, acquisitions, and growth investments but shows no immediate red flags. Cash is healthy and essentially flat year‑over‑year, a decline in current assets is offset by an increase in total assets, and liabilities have risen — compressing equity somewhat. Still, leverage remains light at roughly 2x cash and under 0.5x equity, leaving room to pay down debt and improve the balance sheet through 2026.
Catalysts for Workday Stock Exist
Potential catalysts in 2026 include continued revenue growth, improving cash flow, and the possibility of outperforming Q1 and full‑year guidance. Management flagged macroeconomic uncertainty and longer deal‑closing timelines as reasons for caution, but the likely path is gradual outperformance across quarters, which would prompt upgrades to guidance and a rebound in analyst and market sentiment. The question is whether the stock will recover from these new lows — and that recovery appears likely. Trading near $115, WDAY sits in a valuation zone not seen since the depths of the COVID‑19 selloff.
Home Depot Accumulation Is Underway—Why Dividend Investors Are Watching
By Thomas Hughes. Publication Date: 2/24/2026.
Key Points
- Home Depot’s dividend profile and long runway toward Dividend Aristocrat eligibility support the “quality + stability” case for long-term holders.
- Institutional ownership and recent flow trends are framed as supportive, even with tepid fiscal 2026 guidance.
- Q4 FY2025 was better than feared on revenue and adjusted earnings, but housing-market timing and rate policy remain the swing risks.
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Home Depot (NYSE: HD) is a Dividend Contender, and its stock is being accumulated. Dividend Contenders are stocks that have increased their dividends for a sufficient number of years to be on track for inclusion in the Dividend Aristocrats Index. Inclusion requires membership in the S&P 500 and 25 consecutive years of annual increases — a milestone Home Depot will reach in 2031.
The key point is that inclusion in the Dividend Aristocrats Index tends to increase institutional and ETF ownership, and it can also attract more long-term buy-and-hold investors. Greater ownership by buy-and-hold shareholders is generally associated with lower volatility and, over time, stronger total returns. The dividend yields about 2.5% annually, shares trade near $380, and the payout ratio is a sustainable roughly 60% of projected earnings.
HD Stock Accumulation Gains Momentum in Early 2026
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Analysts and institutional-ownership trends indicate institutions have been net buyers. Institutional investors, who own more than 70% of the float, have accumulated the stock on balance for years. Activity in 2025 included some selling late in the year, but the annualized balance favored buying by more than $2 for every $1 sold and accelerated in Q1 2026. Early Q1 2026 activity shows nearly $3 bought for every $1 sold, a pattern that supports a bullish stance given the company's quality and long-term outlook.
Fiscal 2026 guidance was conservative, with revenue and earnings midpoints below consensus. That said, the analyst reaction suggested expectations were even weaker, so the guidance was not a surprise. Management projects continued growth at a low single-digit rate and improvements in earnings quality. Earnings quality matters because it underpins the dividend and the pace of dividend growth. Home Depot rarely posts aggressive increases, but it appears capable of sustaining a modest, low-single-digit compound growth rate over the long term in the current environment.
Analysts' actions following the release were consistent with ongoing accumulation. MarketBeat tracked no broad negative revisions immediately after the guidance, leaving prerelease trends intact. Price targets were moderated but broadly supported the Moderate Buy rating and a consensus price outlook that implies upside. As of late February, the consensus implies roughly a 10% price increase from key support levels, aligning the market toward the top of its trading range.
Home Depot Underwhelms With Guidance: Q4 Results Better Than Expected
Home Depot reported a difficult Q4 2025 with weak comps against a tough comparison, resulting in a 3.8% year-over-year revenue decline. Still, $38.2 billion in net revenue was slightly ahead of expectations and supported by positive internal trends. The period comparison is distorted by an extra week in the prior-year reporting period; after adjusting for that week, revenue showed modest growth and margin pressures were less pronounced. On an organic basis, comps rose 0.4% systemwide, with U.S. comps up 0.3%, driven by higher average ticket values.
Margin dynamics were mixed. The company experienced some margin compression and deleveraging, but improvements in other areas helped offset pressure. The net result was a 13% decline in operating income and a $0.41 drop in adjusted earnings per share — nonetheless, EPS was about $0.20 better than forecast. Excluding roughly $0.30 attributable to the extra week in 2024 narrows the adjusted-EPS decline to approximately $0.10.
Home Depot Catalysts Ahead: But Risks Remain
Potential 2026 catalysts include a stabilization in the housing market and renewed demand for large renovation projects as homeowners tap home equity. While housing activity remained muted in early 2026, signs of improvement began to emerge in late 2025, pointing to a slow recovery. The main risk is timing: the pace of any housing rebound is tied closely to Fed policy and interest rates. Expectations for rate cuts have cooled, implying a longer glide path for the housing recovery than many previously anticipated.
Price action in the stock is constructive but not without hurdles. The stock jumped more than 3% at the open after the release, creating a small gap on the daily chart and establishing support near pre-release levels. In the bullish scenario, shares could move toward the top of their range near $420, but resistance around $395 could limit gains. If the stock fails to break higher, it may remain in the lower portion of its two-year trading range and could test levels nearer $340 before a sustained move to new highs occurs.
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