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Exclusive News Moderna Pops 17%—Is There Life in MRNA, Down 90% from COVID High?Authored by Leo Miller. Originally Published: 1/20/2026. 
Article Highlights - Moderna was one of the top vaccine providers during the pandemic, generating +$7 billion in sales one quarter.
- Shares are now down more than 90% from their high, following the path of COVID-19 vaccine sales.
- However, Moderna just posted its biggest gain in over three years after updating its guidance. Does the stock have real rebound potential?
In a blast from the past, COVID-19 vaccine developer Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) made headlines in 2026. Shares jumped more than 17% on Jan. 13, the company's largest single-day gain in over three years. Moderna shares have plunged as COVID-19's prominence has faded. Trading near $42 per share as of Jan. 20, the stock is down more than 90% from its all-time high—even with the recent bounce. Imagine a bull market so powerful, every single investor became a millionaire. Not by finding the next NVIDIA or Bitcoin, but by owning a simple index fund.
It sounds impossible. Yet it happened – just a short time ago. Now a legendary figure says: "Brace yourselves. It's about to happen here, in America. But fair warning – it could be the worst thing that ever happens to you."
This story has received little coverage in the press. But if history repeats, it could bump tens of millions of Americans into a 7-figure net worth practically overnight. Click here for the full story. With the stock in such a deep hole and the pharma company recently lifting its outlook, is there still life in Moderna shares? MRNA Expects Stability in 2026 After COVID Sales Plummet The spike in Moderna stock followed the company announcing better-than-expected revenue guidance and improved cost management. For 2025, Moderna said it expects to generate $1.9 billion in revenue—$100 million above its previously outlined midpoint guidance. Additionally, the company forecast operating expenses about $200 million below its prior estimates, which would put non-adjusted operating expenses for 2025 between $5 billion and $5.2 billion, roughly $2 billion lower than the prior year. On a cash basis, Moderna expects costs to be between $3.5 billion and $3.9 billion by 2027. Essentially all of Moderna's sales continue to come from COVID-19 vaccines. Of the firm's $1 billion in revenue last quarter, $971 million came from COVID vaccines. That compares with the late-2021 peak when the company generated $7.2 billion in one quarter. As of the end of 2023, the World Health Organization estimated that 67% of the world's population had received a primary COVID-19 vaccine series, leaving a much smaller pool of potential patients for additional shots. That makes it difficult for the company to return to sustainable growth based solely on COVID treatments. Still, Moderna expects up to 10% sales growth in 2026, driven by repeatable booster demand from high-risk individuals and seniors. The company also has strategic government partnerships with Canada, the U.K. and Australia; 2026 will be the first full year to reflect those deals. Notably, Moderna expects about $200 million in sales from the U.K. government in Q1 2026. Targeting high-risk populations and expanding government agreements could help establish a steadier revenue base. MRNA Seeks 2028 Break-Even, Needs Positive Non-Seasonal Readouts Moderna believes a seasonal vaccine strategy, combined with cost reductions, can achieve breakeven cash flow by 2028. The company recently released Phase 3 results for a flu vaccine that could be approved in 2026 and begin generating meaningful revenue in 2027. Approval of a second seasonal product would be a meaningful catalyst and help the firm toward its 2028 goal. However, seasonal markets alone don't offer much long-term growth. To rekindle investor enthusiasm, Moderna likely needs success in non-seasonal areas such as oncology and rare diseases. The company has several candidates with pivotal readouts expected in 2026, most notably its personalized cancer medicine intismeran. Moderna expects five-year Phase II data in early 2026, with potential Phase III data later that year. Despite Recent Excitement, Moderna Remains a Wait-and-See Stock Uncertainty still clouds Moderna's outlook. Whether COVID-19 vaccine sales will stabilize at current levels is far from certain, and the company's long-term prospects depend heavily on approvals in clinical areas where it currently has no marketed products. Recent federal actions have also reduced government investments in mRNA development, which has added to concerns about the pathway for future approvals. For now, Moderna is a stock to watch. The consensus price target—near $30—implies more than 25% downside from current levels. A sustained stabilization in COVID-19 vaccine demand, plus clear progress in non-seasonal programs, would be important prerequisites before becoming more bullish on the stock's long-term outlook.
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