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This Week's Bonus Story Berkshire Bought the Dip—Now Constellation Brands Is ReboundingSubmitted by Leo Miller. Published: 1/9/2026. 
At a Glance - Constellation Brands is rebounding sharply in early 2026 after a 36% loss last year, with its Q3 earnings beating expectations.
- Berkshire Hathaway increased its stake in STZ despite the stock’s downturn, signaling long-term confidence in its recovery potential.
- Strong beer segment performance, improving margins, and analyst price targets point to upside, even as broader alcohol demand remains uncertain.
After a disastrous 2025, shares of beer giant Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ) are starting 2026 on a much brighter note. To the chagrin of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B), Constellation delivered a total return of -36% last year. Before Warren Buffett's retirement, Berkshire initiated a position in Constellation during Q4 2024. As of September 2025, Berkshire held 13.4 million Constellation shares, valued at roughly $1.8 billion at the time. General weakness in the beer market and among Constellation's customer base contributed to the stock's decline. Constellation lowered its full-year fiscal 2026 (FY2026) guidance in September 2025 because of the difficult operating environment. (Note: the firm's fiscal year runs several quarters ahead of the calendar year.) After picking Nvidia in 2016, before it jumped 27,000%...
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Click here to get the name of this company, completely free of charge... Click here for the details. However, as of the Jan. 8 close, Constellation shares are up more than 7% in 2026. The stock has rebounded roughly 16% since hitting a 2025 low near $128 in November. The firm's latest earnings report lifted shares about 5.3%. Below is a breakdown of those results and what they mean for the stock. Constellation Delivers Impressive Bottom-Line Beat In Q3 FY2026, Constellation reported net revenue of $2.22 billion, down about 10% year-over-year but approximately $52 million above analysts' expectations. The company reported comparable earnings per share of $3.06, a decline of roughly 6% from a year earlier but well ahead of the consensus estimate of $2.63 (which called for a 19% drop). Constellation's beer segment — roughly 90% of revenue — saw sales decline 1%. That modest decline outpaced the rest of the beer industry, allowing Constellation to gain market share. Amid a weak backdrop, the company's beer business has consistently outperformed: in Q1 and Q2 FY2026 Constellation led the beer category in dollar share gains, and that trend held true in FY2025. Despite the sales decline, the beer segment's operating margin ticked up 10 basis points, a sign of effective cost management. Dragging the company's overall growth was its Wine and Spirits segment, where sales fell 51%. That steep decline largely reflects Constellation's divestiture of SVEDKA vodka and parts of its wine portfolio; excluding those items, Wine and Spirits sales fell about 7%. On that same pro forma basis, consolidated sales declined roughly 2% rather than the reported 10%. Overall, Constellation performed solidly during the quarter given the industry headwinds. Coming Off Multi-Year Lows, STZ May Have Significant Room to Run Trading around $148, Constellation has only partially recovered from its 2025 low near $128. That low was not just a recent trough — it was the stock's lowest closing level since April 2020, shortly after the March 2020 COVID-19 market crash. In other words, Constellation hasn't merely bounced from a near-term dip; it's emerging from a historic drawdown, which leaves meaningful upside potential if the rally continues. Berkshire's Buying and Analyst Targets Support the Upside Berkshire purchased more than 6 million Constellation shares in Q1 2025. During that quarter, the stock's lowest closing price was $158, which is roughly 7% above the current trading level. Since then, Berkshire has continued to increase its Constellation holdings, signaling ongoing confidence despite the stock's slide. Wall Street analysts also see upside: the MarketBeat consensus price target of about $182 implies roughly 23% upside from current levels. Still, the beer industry faces notable questions. A recent Gallup survey found just 54% of Americans reported drinking alcohol — the lowest recorded figure. However, similar lows have occurred previously and were followed by meaningful rebounds, suggesting recent trends may be cyclical rather than structural. An industry recovery would be a strong tailwind for Constellation. Given the company's consistent beer-segment share gains, disciplined margins, and current valuation, Constellation's outlook appears tilted to the upside.
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