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Exclusive Content from MarketBeat Moderna Pops 17%—Is There Life in MRNA, Down 90% from COVID High?Written by Leo Miller. Originally Published: 1/20/2026. 
At a Glance - Moderna was one of the top vaccine providers during the pandemic, generating +$7 billion in sales one quarter.
- Shares are now down more than 90% from their high, following the path of COVID-19 vaccine sales.
- However, Moderna just posted its biggest gain in over three years after updating its guidance. Does the stock have real rebound potential?
In a blast from the past, COVID-19 vaccine developer Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) made headlines in 2026 when shares jumped more than 17% on Jan. 13 — the company's largest single-day gain in over three years. Moderna shares have fallen sharply as COVID-19's relevance has faded. Trading near $42 per share as of Jan. 20, the stock remains down more than 90% from its all-time high — even after the recent bounce. Some analysts are revisiting historical monetary resets and the role gold has played when governments faced large debt imbalances.
A new free report examines how gold was previously revalued to support national balance sheets, why recent comments from policymakers and investors have renewed interest in this topic, and what individuals may want to understand about protecting long-term savings during periods of monetary change. Download the free report here With the stock in such a deep hole and the pharma company recently raising its outlook, could Moderna shares still have life? MRNA Expects Stability in 2026 After COVID Sales Plummet The spike in Moderna stock followed the company announcing revenue guidance that beat expectations and outlining stronger cost controls. For 2025, Moderna now expects $1.9 billion in revenue — $100 million above its previously stated midpoint guidance. It also forecasted operating expenses for 2025 that are roughly $200 million below prior estimates. That would put the company's non-adjusted operating expenses for 2025 between $5 billion and $5.2 billion, about $2 billion lower than the prior year. On a cash basis, Moderna expects costs of approximately $3.5 billion to $3.9 billion by 2027. Nearly all of Moderna's sales still come from COVID-19 vaccines. Of the firm's $1 billion in revenue last quarter, $971 million came from COVID vaccines. That is a sharp contrast with late 2021, when the company recorded $7.2 billion in one quarter. As of the end of 2023, the World Health Organization estimated that 67% of the world's population had received the complete primary series of a COVID-19 vaccine. That leaves a much smaller pool of potential patients and makes it difficult for Moderna to return to sustained growth based solely on COVID treatments. Still, Moderna expects up to 10% sales growth in 2026, driven by repeatable COVID-19 booster demand among high-risk individuals and seniors. The company has strategic partnerships with the governments of Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia, and 2026 will be the first year it sees the full benefit of those agreements. Notably, Moderna expects $200 million in sales from the U.K. government in Q1 2026. Targeting high-risk populations and pursuing government contracts could establish a steadier revenue base. MRNA Seeks 2028 Break-Even, Needs Positive Non-Seasonal Readouts Moderna says its seasonal vaccine strategy, combined with cost reductions, can produce breakeven cash flow by 2028. The company recently released Phase 3 results for a flu vaccine that could be approved in 2026 and begin generating meaningful revenue in 2027. Approval would be an important catalyst, adding a second seasonal product aimed at a widespread infection and helping the company toward its 2028 goal. However, to regain sustained investor enthusiasm, Moderna will likely need success beyond seasonal vaccines. Seasonal markets provide a potential revenue floor but limited long-term growth. The company will probably need regulatory wins in oncology or rare disease programs to change its growth trajectory. Several candidates in those areas have pivotal readouts expected in 2026. The most prominent is its personalized cancer medicine, intismeran; Moderna expects five-year Phase Two data in early 2026, with Phase Three data possible in late 2026. Despite Recent Excitement, Moderna Remains a Wait-and-See Stock. Overall, uncertainty continues to cloud Moderna's outlook. Whether COVID-19 vaccine sales have actually bottomed is far from certain. The company's long-term prospects hinge largely on gaining approvals in clinical areas where it has no currently approved medicines. The current administration has also taken steps to wind down some government investments in mRNA development, which has increased concern about future support and regulatory momentum in the space. For now, Moderna is a stock to watch. The consensus price target — near $30 — implies more than 25% downside from current levels. A clear stabilization in COVID-19 vaccine demand or meaningful regulatory wins outside the seasonal vaccine market would be important prerequisites to becoming more bullish on Moderna's long-term prospects.
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