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More Reading from MarketBeat Moderna Pops 17%—Is There Life in MRNA, Down 90% from COVID High?By Leo Miller. Publication Date: 1/20/2026. 
At a Glance - Moderna was one of the top vaccine providers during the pandemic, generating +$7 billion in sales one quarter.
- Shares are now down more than 90% from their high, following the path of COVID-19 vaccine sales.
- However, Moderna just posted its biggest gain in over three years after updating its guidance. Does the stock have real rebound potential?
In a blast from the past, COVID-19 vaccine developer Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) made headlines in 2026. Shares jumped more than 17% on Jan. 13 — Moderna's largest single-day gain in over three years. Moderna shares have suffered significant declines as COVID-19’s relevance has faded. Trading near $42 per share as of Jan. 20, the stock remains down more than 90% from its all-time high, even after the recent bounce. If your retirement strategy involves "picking the right stocks," you're one crash away from disaster…
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And his followers have seen an 84%-win rate. Click here to see how he does it With the stock in a deep hole and the pharma company recently lifting its outlook, is it possible Moderna shares have life? MRNA Expects Stability in 2026 After COVID Sales Plummet The spike in Moderna stock followed the company announcing better-than-expected revenue guidance and improved cost projections. For 2025, Moderna said it expects to generate $1.9 billion in revenue — $100 million above its previously outlined midpoint. Management also forecast operating expenses about $200 million below prior estimates. That would put the firm’s non-adjusted operating expenses for 2025 between $5.0 billion and $5.2 billion, roughly a $2 billion decrease from the prior year. On a cash basis, Moderna expects costs to be between $3.5 billion and $3.9 billion by 2027. Nearly all of Moderna’s sales still come from COVID-19 vaccines. Of the company’s $1 billion in revenue last quarter, $971 million came from COVID vaccines. That pales in comparison to late 2021, when the company generated $7.2 billion in one quarter. As of the end of 2023, the World Health Organization estimated that 67% of the world’s population had received the complete primary series of a COVID-19 vaccine. That leaves a much smaller pool of potential patients for Moderna to pursue, making it difficult to sustain growth based solely on COVID treatments. Still, Moderna expects up to 10% sales growth in 2026, driven by repeatable booster demand among high-risk individuals and seniors. The company has strategic partnerships with the governments of Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia, and 2026 will be the first year it sees the full-year benefit of those deals. Notably, in Q1 2026 the firm expects to generate $200 million in sales from the U.K. government. Targeting high-risk populations and securing government contracts could help establish a firmer revenue base. MRNA Seeks 2028 Break-Even, Needs Positive Non-Seasonal Readouts Moderna believes its seasonal vaccine strategy, combined with cost reductions, can achieve breakeven cash flow by 2028. The company recently released Phase 3 results for a flu vaccine. If approved in 2026, that vaccine could begin generating meaningful revenue in 2027 — a major catalyst that would add a second seasonal product aimed at a widespread infection. Securing approval is essential to the company’s 2028 goal. However, for investors to get truly excited about Moderna again, the company will likely need successes beyond seasonal vaccines. Seasonal markets can provide a revenue floor but offer limited long-term growth. Approval of oncology or rare-disease therapies would be far more impactful. Moderna has several candidates in these areas with pivotal readouts expected in 2026. The most important is its personalized cancer medicine, intismeran. Moderna expects five-year Phase Two data in early 2026, with potential Phase Three data by late 2026. Despite Recent Excitement, Moderna Remains a Wait-and-See Stock Overall, uncertainty still clouds Moderna’s outlook. Whether the company’s COVID-19 vaccine sales will truly bottom is far from certain. More importantly, the company’s long-term prospects hinge on gaining approvals in clinical areas where it currently has no marketed products. Some federal policymakers have also been critical of mRNA technology, including moves to wind down government investments in the area Moderna specializes in, which has heightened concerns about future support and approvals. The HHS announcement is one example of that policy shift. At this point, Moderna is a stock to watch. The consensus price target — near $30 — implies more than 25% downside from current levels. Stabilization in COVID-19 vaccine demand and clear progress on non-seasonal pipelines would be key prerequisites for becoming more constructive on the stock’s long-term prospects.
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