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For Your Education and Enjoyment Pfizer Adds to Its Big Bet on Weight Loss DrugsWritten by Jordan Chussler. Published 12/16/2025. 
Key Points - The health care sector has led the S&P 500 over the three months, but Pfizer has lagged of late, slipping 5% since the start of October.
- As the Big Pharma company continues to struggle to replace COVID-19 vaccine revenue, it is heavily learning into the semaglutide and GLP-1 weight loss drug trend.
- Last week, the company signed a $2.1 billion licensing agreement with a Chinese pharma company to develop its early-stage weight loss pill.
Health care stocks have been on a run lately, leading the S&P 500's 11 sectors over the past three months with a gain of 11.55%. Unfortunately for some investors, that recent rally has not included all of the Big Pharma mainstays. Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), the maker of Chantix, Eliquis and Paxlovid, has seen its shares slide about 5% since the start of October. By comparison, other mega-cap pharmaceutical companies such as Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: REGN), and Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) are up nearly 14%, 24%, and 25%, respectively, over the same period. This Is the Pentagon's Favorite Startup. And You've Never Heard of It.
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And you can get pre-IPO exposure… with this 4-letter ticker. Click here to see how to get pre-IPO exposure. And despite Pfizer making headlines on Nov. 13 after acquiring obesity biotech Metsera in a roughly $10 billion deal, the stock has managed only a 0.23% gain since then. The nearly 177-year-old biopharma company is again looking to expand its role in the weight-loss drug market, with management and shareholders hoping those efforts can help offset waning revenue from mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines. Pfizer Looks to Gain Market Share After Enormous Deal With YaoPharma On Tuesday, Dec. 9, Pfizer struck a $2.1 billion licensing deal with China's YaoPharma to develop a GLP-1 weight-loss pill that is in early-stage development. The drug is designed to work similarly to Wegovy, the game-changing weight-loss injection from competitor Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO). News of a drug that has not yet been approved may not move the stock in the short term, but the agreement underscores Pfizer's commitment and momentum in the obesity-treatment market. Under the deal, Pfizer will pay a $150 million upfront fee to YaoPharma's parent, Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical, which has an $8.4 billion market cap. Pfizer could also pay YaoPharma up to $1.94 billion in development and regulatory milestone payments, plus royalties on sales if the drug is approved. Those milestone payments are contingent on YaoPharma advancing the weight-loss pill through phase one trials; Pfizer will take control of later-stage development. Pfizer also plans combination studies—some already in mid-stage—pairing the Chinese firm's pill with Pfizer's GIP-targeting compound, a dual approach similar to Eli Lilly's strategy with Zepbound and Mounjaro. Pfizer Is Positioning Itself for the Future of the Weight-Loss Drug Market The agreement highlights how aggressively Pfizer's executive team is pursuing a long-term position in the GLP-1 and broader obesity-treatment market. In recent weeks the company has demonstrated a willingness to invest substantial capital toward that goal. Between the Metsera acquisition and the YaoPharma licensing deal, Pfizer has committed roughly $12.1 billion to expand its presence in the weight-loss arena. Forecasts from market analysis firm Grand View Research suggest the GLP-1 weight-loss drug market could grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.54% from 2025 to 2030, rising from less than $14 billion this year to an estimated $48.84 billion by 2030. Grand View Research also found that North America represents the largest revenue share, accounting for more than 75% of the GLP-1 agonists market. While other obesity interventions exist—such as lifestyle changes and bariatric surgery—GLP-1 drugs remain the preferred option for many physicians and patients. Patient Investors Can Enjoy PFE's Sizable Dividend Shareholders are hoping Pfizer's push into the weight-loss market proves successful after the stock has lost more than 31% over the past five years. Much of that decline reflects falling COVID-vaccine sales and a dramatic shift in revenue trends: growth went from more than 95% in late 2021 to a decline exceeding 41% by the end of 2023. Last year Pfizer rebounded modestly, posting nearly a 7% increase in revenue. Meanwhile, the company's dividend yield has helped offset some investor concerns. Pfizer remains a strong dividend payer with a current yield of 6.65%—about $1.72 per share annually. The payout has increased for 16 consecutive years, making the stock attractive to income investors, though the company's roughly 100% payout ratio raises some questions about sustainability. For investors focused on income who are bullish on the near- and mid-term prospects for prescription weight-loss drugs, Pfizer can provide steady income while serving as a speculative way to gain exposure to the GLP-1 industry. However, growth-focused investors may be wary after recent underperformance. Analysts' average 12-month price target implies a little more than 10% potential upside from the current price and the consensus rating remains Hold. Meanwhile, short interest has been rising as the stock attracts more bearish bets. Currently, about $3.58 billion of the float is shorted—nearly 84% more than PFE's short position was at the end of January 2025.
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