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Featured Article from MarketBeat The Off-Price Retail King? Why TJX Looks Ready to Break OutWritten by Thomas Hughes. Published 11/20/2025. 
Key Points - TJX Companies' Q3 results and guidance update point to the continuation of existing stock price trends.
- Cash flow fuels a healthy capital return, including dividends, distribution growth, and buybacks.
- Analysts and institutions are supporting this market and pushing it higher in late 2025.
The macroeconomic and retail conditions are ideal for The TJX Companies' (NYSE: TJX) business, as reflected in its results and stock price. Macroeconomic headwinds that shifted consumer habits and hurt results for many major retailers have created a favorable environment for off-price chains like The TJX Companies, allowing it to offer attractive value to still-resilient consumers. Trump's Next Export Ban Could Reshape the Global Economy
It's not semiconductors, AI chips or quantum computers. But none of those technologies can exist without it. On January 19th, 2026, Trump is expected to ban exports of something every tech company desperately needs—forcing them all to relocate to U.S. soil. See what he's about to ban here… The takeaway is that industry-leading growth in Q3, combined with outperformance and improved Q4 guidance (likely conservative), suggests the uptrend in TJX shares is expected to continue. 
TJX Companies Outperforms and Raises Guidance for the Year The TJX Companies had a strong quarter, reporting revenue of $15.12 billion, up 7.0% year-over-year (YOY) and roughly 175 basis points above consensus. Strength was driven by a 5% systemwide comp, gains across all divisions, and a 1.1% increase in store count. TJX Canada grew the fastest, up 8% YOY, followed by a 6% increase in the core Marmaxx divisions, a 5% increase in Home Goods, and a 3% gain internationally. All segments contributed to net growth and helped support margin expansion. Gross margin improved by about 100 basis points thanks to a favorable selling environment and revenue leverage, along with operating improvements, producing leveraged earnings growth. GAAP EPS rose 12%, helped by share repurchases that reduced the share count by approximately 1.3% during the quarter. TJX provided Q4 guidance that was slightly below some expectations. Nonetheless, the shortfall is modest relative to MarketBeat's consensus and does not detract from the solid year-to-date performance. Full-year guidance was raised: comp store growth is expected at 4% and earnings at $4.63 at the low end—more than a nickel above consensus. Given current trends, management's guidance appears cautious, and actual results may exceed expectations when Q4 is reported in January. Capital Returns Drive TJX Companies Stock Price Higher Capital returns are a key driver of TJX's stock performance. The company pays a dividend and repurchases shares, steadily reducing its share count. The dividend is roughly average versus the S&P 500, but it is well-covered and growing. The payout ratio is low—below 40%—so annual increases are likely to continue for this Dividend Aristocrat. Excluding the COVID-19 pause, TJX has raised its distribution annually for nearly 30 years and can likely sustain strong dividend growth for the foreseeable future. TJX's balance sheet shows no red flags. Q3 highlights include higher current and total assets—driven by increased cash and inventory—offset by only modest increases in liabilities and a reduction in debt. The result: shareholders' equity rose by nearly 15%, leverage remains low, and the company is effectively net cash, with long-term debt around 0.2x equity. Analysts Trends Drive TJX Stock to New Highs The analysts' trends are robust and align with the fundamental and technical outlook: expanded coverage, firmer sentiment, 25 Buy ratings, and rising price targets. The consensus treats the stock as fairly valued after the Q3 release, but the trend points toward the high end of the range—near $170—implying roughly 17% upside from mid-November levels.
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