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Today's Bonus Content Battle of the Black Friday Stocks: Amazon vs. Walmart vs. TargetWritten by Nathan Reiff. Published 11/17/2025. 
Key Points - U.S. consumers are projected to spend more than $1 trillion on holiday shopping for the first time ever.
- Major retailers like Amazon, Walmart, and Target are poised to benefit from this trend.
- Walmart's omnichannel approach may give it an advantage on Black Friday, but Amazon's unparalleled logistics network and competitive pricing make it an overall holiday retail winner.
As Black Friday has expanded into Small Business Saturday, Cyber Monday, and—in some cases—the entire month of November, retail sales have expanded along with it. The National Retail Federation estimates that the 2025 winter holidays (November through December) will see more than $1 trillion in U.S. retail sales for the first time, an increase of between 3.7% and 4.2% over 2024. Despite waning consumer confidence and persistent inflation, Black Friday remains a key driver of holiday spending. The world's wealthiest individuals are making huge moves with their money.
Warren Buffett just liquidated billions of shares. Bill Gates sold 500,000 shares of Microsoft. Jeff Bezos filed to sell Amazon shares worth $4.8 billion.
What is going on? One multi-millionaire believes they are preparing for a catastrophic event. But not a crash, bank run, or recession. It's something we haven't see in America for more than a century. For the full story, click here. Three core retailers positioned to benefit from increased post-Thanksgiving spending are Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT), and Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT). How might these retail giants fare in 2025, and which is likely to come out on top? Amazon: The Online Juggernaut In the United States, Amazon is the undisputed leader in online retail. Although the e-commerce giant has diversified into cloud computing, advertising, and other services, its retail business remains massive. Amazon's Black Friday deals run nearly two weeks—from November 20 to December 1 —and span all categories, with electronics, toys, and beauty typically among the top sellers. In 2024, the company hosted its most successful Black Friday event yet and has consistently posted the lowest online prices of any major U.S. retailer for nearly a decade. Amazon's unmatched selection and ability to undercut rivals on price are largely enabled by its scale and logistics advantages. The company is also preparing to use its distribution network to disrupt the grocery market, one of the last areas where brick-and-mortar stores have held an edge. Walmart: The Omnichannel King Originally a traditional retailer, Walmart has successfully evolved into an omnichannel competitor that blends in-store experience with a growing online presence. This strategy has helped deliver some of the company's strongest earnings in recent quarters. Walmart has also attracted some third-party sellers away from Amazon, making its e-commerce marketplace an increasingly important growth driver. Its extensive fulfillment network allows Walmart to price competitively and manage inventory for both physical stores and online sales, while the company benefits from one of the most loyal customer bases in retail. Target: The Challenger Target is a well-known brand, but its smaller scale compared with Amazon and Walmart means it competes by carving out a niche. The company emphasizes curation—maintaining a relatively limited third-party marketplace and a selective set of brands—which has helped it build a reputation for strong value on quality items across categories. Target's buy-online, pick-up-in-store program, which gained traction during the COVID-19 pandemic, remains popular and helps bridge its digital and physical channels. However, Target has faced headwinds in recent quarters, including a backlash after scaling back aspects of its DEI program. The Black Friday period could be an opportunity for the company to regain momentum or to fall further behind its larger competitors. Key Metrics Comparison On a year-to-date (YTD) basis heading into Black Friday, Walmart has the most momentum. WMT shares are up about 14% this year, compared with gains of roughly 8% for AMZN and a decline of about 34% for TGT. Looking at holiday revenue estimates, Amazon forecasts fourth-quarter revenue between $206 billion and $213 billion; neither Walmart nor Target had provided public holiday revenue forecasts at the time of writing. Amazon's online store sales for the latest quarter reached $67.4 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, representing roughly 63% of total sales for the period. Walmart's latest annual report shows $121 billion in online sales, just under 18% of total revenue. Target doesn't provide an identical breakdown, but digital comparable sales growth has recently outpaced overall sales growth. So, Who Wins Black Friday 2025? In the U.S. Black Friday race, Walmart's omnichannel footprint, loyal customer base, and competitive pricing make it difficult to bet against. Investors looking to play the seasonal upside might consider the period ahead of Walmart's earnings release, expected on November 20, which will reflect the Black Friday window. That said, on a broader scale—across categories and geography—Amazon may still emerge as the overall leader. Its unmatched product assortment, aggressive pricing, and the tailwinds from AWS, advertising, and other services give it advantages beyond the U.S. Black Friday weekend. Amazon's global reach also makes the holiday season more consequential for its international business. Ultimately, each company brings distinct strengths: Walmart dominates domestically with an omnichannel model; Amazon leads online with scale and international reach; and Target competes by curating value for a specific customer base. Which retailer comes out on top will depend on execution during the sales season and shoppers' preferences this year.
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