‘2,000 Mules’ Retracted, Still Lodged in Grandma's BrainPlus: A possible ceasefire in Gaza, and Biden speaks on Trump's conviction.
Sen. Tim Scott wants you to know: 2024 is not an abortion-policy election. “The Supreme Court has already ruled that this is a states’ issue. President Trump and Speaker Johnson have both said that this will remain a states’ issue,” Scott said yesterday on Fox News Sunday. “That is a settled issue for our party, and frankly, it is one that takes that issue off the table for the Democrats, who have the most extreme position on abortion.” Guess we’ll see! Happy Monday.
2,000 Mules, One AssEver since the “Stop the Steal” campaign in the aftermath of the 2020 election, the relentless barrage of election lies from Donald Trump and his allies have been like a river carving a gorge out of a mountain, dramatically reshaping the land long after the water itself has passed. Conspiracy after conspiracy appears, roars across social media at top speed, then is exposed and falls apart. But the dissipation of the individual conspiracies—the foundering of the court cases, the recantations from media companies that spread them, the eye-popping defamation settlements—do nothing to rebuild the trust already eroded as they flowed by. Among Republicans, belief that the 2020 election was stolen is more fundamental than ever—carved into the bedrock. When Dinesh D’Souza’s movie 2,000 Mules arrived on the scene in 2022, it was an immediate MAGA smash—a “masterpiece of meeting market demand,” as WaPo’s Philip Bump put it earlier this year. It purported to prove 2020 absentee ballot fraud on a massive scale. Its ridiculous claims were debunked almost immediately, but that didn’t matter—it became a tentpole of the 2020 MAGA mythology at once. Trump described it as “the greatest and most impactful documentary of our time.” Now its distributors are retracting it. Here’s the New York Times:
In a less rotten information ecosystem, telling easily debunkable lies might result in some social consequences: The liar’s audience, trust broken, steamed at having been played for fools, recalibrates and tries to find more accurate information elsewhere. In the world we actually live in, it seems like the only real accountability we ever see these days is legal: Someone harmed by the laws takes the liar to court, proves the lie, and twists their arm into finally admitting the truth. If you weren’t paying attention in the moment, it is genuinely difficult to communicate how thoroughly 2,000 Mules seeped into the right-wing consciousness in 2022. Seeing this sort of news, it’s understandable to wonder: Could this be the sort of moment to finally drop the scales from the eyes of those in thrall to Trump’s (and D’Souza’s) 2020 lies? It was understandable to wonder that in the wake of Fox’s $787 million Dominion Voting Systems’ settlement last year, too. But it’s as true now as it was then: Mopping up the water doesn’t un-carve the gorge. —Andrew Egger Is a Gaza Ceasefire Imminent?With domestic politics still roiling over Trump’s felony conviction, President Biden took to the White House podium last Friday with a remarkable announcement: Israel had offered a comprehensive new ceasefire proposal. Biden praised Israel’s latest offer, one he believes will not only bring all the hostages home and create conditions for a long-term political settlement between Palestinians and Israelis, but also create a “better day after in Gaza without Hamas in power.” As always, however, the devil is in the details. In the proposal’s first phase, Hamas and Israel would observe a six-week ceasefire. During that time, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) would pull back from “major population centers.” Hamas would also release some hostages in exchange for prisoners. Internally displaced Palestinians from northern Gaza would also be allowed to return home. Throughout this first phase, both sides would try to reach a permanent ceasefire. If and when a deal was struck, phase two would begin, resulting in the IDF’s complete withdrawal and the return of all Israeli hostages in exchange for more Palestinian prisoners. In the final phase, the United States and its European allies would finance a Gaza reconstruction plan. Shortly after the speech, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Office clarified that Israel’s strategic goals had not changed: Hamas must be destroyed and all the hostages returned. Bibi released this statement to cover his right flank, as he knew the most unruly elements of his governing alliance would threaten to bolt from his coalition over a deal—which is just what they did over the weekend. But Biden, perhaps foreseeing this as well, made sure to keep the pressure on Netanyahu from the other side—the Biden team knew that his speech would excite street protesters, who in turn thanked Biden for his maneuvers. In short, Biden called Bibi’s bluff, challenging him to accept the deal he himself proposed. Bibi’s time for choosing is fast approaching. Will he stick with far-right elements and scuttle a deal that his own senior aides admitted they proposed? Or will he empower his other political rivals who will only provide short-term political support for a day-after plan? It’s hard to say where Bibi will land because there are so many other Israeli politicians angling against him. Whatever he chooses, his rising popularity in the polls and the fact that a plurality of Israelis believe they should govern the Gaza strip will inform his decision. While Israel’s internal Game of Thrones is enthralling, it’s important to remember that Hamas gets a vote on the ceasefire deal too. Would Hamas really agree to a plan that “created a better day in Gaza” without them in power? Absolutely not. Hamas is a genocidal terrorist organization that conducted a modern-day pogrom on October 7th. Remember, al-Qaeda and the Islamic State both praised Hamas’s campaign. Would we trust any deal signed by al-Qaeda or ISIS? Despite President Biden’s assurances, Hamas is still capable of conducting another October 7th attack. Although the IDF is making steady gains in Rafah, Hamas still has numerous battalions throughout the area. Moreover, the remnants of other battalions have regrouped. More importantly, U.S. intelligence estimates that 65 percent of Hamas’s tunnels remain intact, providing Hamas with more than enough breathing room to launch another pogrom. The Biden administration considers a brief ceasefire a win. But, in the end, any deal that’s signed will not lead to a permanent truce between Israel and Hamas. Hamas will not accept a powersharing agreement. Just like the Taliban did with Trump’s ill-fated Doha agreement, Hamas will use our desire for an end to the war against us. While an increasing number of Israelis may prefer a hostage deal over the destruction of Hamas, public opinion may shift should Hamas’s survival come back into focus. Regardless, Hamas is not interested in peacefully coexisting with Israel, regardless of what some “experts” assert. They’re interested in killing Jews. —Will Selber Trump Circles the Wagons, Biden Plants the FlagWell, it does seem that even in our current degraded political state, it’s not a plus to be a convicted felon. A couple of polls taken after Trump’s conviction show a move of two points away from Trump. Which is not nothing in a tight and stable race. More revealing perhaps than the polls is the behavior of the campaigns. Trump knows his conviction is a problem. He knew it would be, which is why he so desperately sought to delay this and all of his other trials. It’s also why he and his supporters worked so hard to discredit the prosecutor and judge in this one. And once the verdict came down, it’s why his campaign pulled out all the stops to get his supporters and enablers and fellow travelers to form a solid front against any acknowledgement that there’s even a bit of a problem with being . . . a convicted felon. So, for example, in a normal political situation, you allow candidates in less friendly political environments to sound a little different than your most fervent supporters. But not on this matter. When Larry Hogan, running for the Senate in Maryland, put out a relatively mild statement urging “all Americans to respect the verdict and the legal process,” Trump world came down on him like a ton of bricks. A top Trump aide, Chris LaCivita, responded, “You just ended your campaign.” It was a message to all other Republicans: Don’t even think about any distancing from Trump on this issue. Don’t even think about a mild expression of faith in the legal system. Because it is, among some swing voters, some uncomfortable Trump supporters, a vulnerability for Trump. On the other hand, President Biden did choose to take a minute, before addressing developments in the Middle East on Friday, to comment on Trump’s conviction. This came after earlier reports that his campaign was inclined to stay away from this, and suggests his aides had seen some focus group and polling evidence that Trump’s conviction did have some resonance. Biden’s remarks, which you can watch here, were sober and strong:
But will there be any follow up? I’m afraid I’ve seen little sign of any from the Biden campaign. I’ve seen no evidence of paid advertising, or of a marshaling of surrogates to echo the president’s words. I don’t sense there’s a plan to keep up a drumbeat about the fact that Biden’s opponent is a convicted felon and that Trump’s supporters seem to have contempt for the American legal system. Maybe we’ll see something today. Maybe Biden will take advantage of the fact that Trump supporters have been flying the American flag upside-down, and will say a word about how proud he always is to see the American flag flying as it is supposed to fly above the White House. I’m sure campaign operatives can come up with many other ways to generate some earned media on the issue. But in general, I fear that the Biden campaign won’t put real effort into stamping ‘convicted felon’ on Trump’s forehead. And if they don’t, the electorate will little note, nor long remember, what happened in that courtroom in New York. And that in turn would be bad for the Biden campaign, and for the nation. —William Kristol Catching up . . .
Cheap Shots
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