Volatility is historically lowest in July and begins climbing into October. |
Today felt like the moment complacency finally cracked.
Big Tech's first earnings reports raised new questions about AI spending, Nvidia committed another $1.5 billion to its AI supply chain, oil's jump above $100 reignited inflation fears, bond yields surged, and volatility began creeping back into the market just as earnings season shifts into high gear.
Suddenly, this summer looks a lot less quiet. |
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⚡ Closing Bell:
→ Dow Jones: ▼ 0.97% to 51,711.65 › Defense stocks rallied after strong guidance from Lockheed Martin and RTX, but losses in Big Tech and rising oil prices pulled the blue-chip index lower.
→ S&P 500: ▼ 1.21% to 7,408.30 › Alphabet and Tesla sparked a broad selloff as investors questioned the rising cost of AI spending while Brent crude climbed above $100.
→ Nasdaq: ▼ 2.15% to 25,137.69 › Tesla plunged 14.5% and Alphabet dropped 7% after earnings, extending pressure on megacap tech despite another busy week of AI headlines.
→ Russell 2000: ▼ 0.70% to 2,940.16 › Small caps outperformed the major indexes as investors rotated away from expensive megacap tech, though higher oil prices and Treasury yields kept broader risk appetite in check.
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Macro Moves:
→ 10-Year Treasury: ▲ 4.68% › Yields climbed to their highest level since early 2025 as oil above $100 reignited inflation fears and investors reduced expectations for near-term Fed easing.
→ 2-Year Treasury: ▲ 4.36% › The policy-sensitive yield reached its highest level since early 2025 as traders increased bets that the Fed may need to keep rates higher for longer amid rising energy prices and a resilient labor market.
→ U.S. Dollar Index: ▲ 0.3% › The dollar strengthened as investors sought safety and higher Treasury yields boosted demand for the greenback, while the yen slid to another 40-year low. |
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❗❗❗ Looking Ahead:
Next up: Apple, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon—where expectations are high, and patience for costly AI bets is suddenly much lower.
#TRUTH:
❗ ❝ It isn't the mountains ahead to climb that wear you out; it's the pebble in your shoe. ❞ ~ Muhammad Ali |
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No president has moved markets like Trump. |
He has a history of adding and wiping trillions from a market, seemingly at will. |
But Larry says all of that was just the warm-up. |
Because one plan has obsessed Trump for over a decade. Larry believes it's about to send billions flooding into a single ticker. |
If you want to get ahead of Trump's next move – check out this presentation with Larry where he gives the name of that ticker for free. |
Click here now while you're still early.
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Expensive Quarter. |
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Tesla’s revenue climbed 26% to $28.2 billion, easily topping expectations after a blowout quarter for vehicle deliveries.
But Wall Street focused on what the company gave up to get there. Earnings missed estimates, free cash flow turned negative, and CEO Elon Musk warned that 2026 will be a “massive capex year” as Tesla ramps spending on Robotaxis, Optimus, and AI infrastructure. |
Investors responded by sending the stock down 14.5%, its biggest one-day drop in months.
Tesla insists its physical AI roadmap remains on track, but the market is asking a tougher question: How much more will it cost before those investments start paying off?
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Who Really Wins the AI Race? |
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The Magnificent Seven lost nearly $800 billion in market value Thursday, marking their worst day since April 2025. Alphabet and Tesla led the decline after investors balked at another round of massive AI spending. |
But the money didn’t leave the AI trade—it rotated within it. |
While the hyperscalers sold off, suppliers like Micron, SK Hynix, and SanDisk rallied as investors bet the companies building AI infrastructure may benefit sooner than the companies footing the bill. As one analyst put it, Wall Street would rather own the businesses receiving the AI investment than the ones writing the checks. |
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Amazon Might Owe You $51 |
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The deadline is approaching for eligible Amazon Prime members to claim a refund from the company’s $2.5 billion settlement with the FTC. Customers who were enrolled in Prime without clear consent—or faced confusing cancellation processes—between June 2019 and June 2025 may qualify for a payment of up to $51. |
Amazon agreed to $1.5 billion in customer refunds and a $1 billion civil penalty while denying any wrongdoing. Some refunds were issued automatically last year, but many eligible customers still need to submit a claim.
The deadline to file is Monday, July 27, with payments expected to be sent later this year.
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Gains & Pains: |
Gains:
→ NovoCure (NVCR): ▲ 28.39% › Shares surged after the cancer-treatment company posted record revenue, beat earnings expectations, and raised its full-year sales guidance. |
→ Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF): ▲ 15.98% › The steelmaker rallied after reporting improving quarterly results and issuing stronger third-quarter guidance as steel demand showed signs of recovering. |
→ Medpace (MEDP): ▲ 14.71% › The clinical research company jumped after beating second-quarter estimates and raising its full-year outlook on strong demand for drug development services. |
→ IMAX (IMAX): ▲ 11.86% › Shares climbed as investors continued to bet on a stronger blockbuster movie slate and improving theater attendance heading into the second half of the year. |
😬 Pains:
→ Tesla (TSLA): ▼ 14.52% › Investors punished the EV maker after its earnings showed negative free cash flow as spending on AI infrastructure, Robotaxi, and Optimus continued to accelerate. |
→ STMicroelectronics (STM): ▼ 18.67% › The European chipmaker plunged after an earnings miss and weaker-than-expected outlook reignited concerns about slowing semiconductor demand. (This also pressured chip stocks broadly.) |
→ Liberty Energy (LBRT): ▼ 21.96% › Oilfield services shares tumbled after disappointing earnings overshadowed the broader rally in crude prices. |
→ Albertsons (ACI): ▼ 21.64% › The grocery chain sank after missing earnings expectations and cutting its full-year outlook, raising concerns about slowing consumer spending. |
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Escapes: |
Ohio Caverns 📍 OH 🇺🇸 |
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Commodities Check : ✔️ |
→ Brent Crude: ▲ 7.04% to $100.69/bbl › Closed above $100 for the first time since May as attacks on Saudi oil tankers and escalating Middle East tensions fueled supply fears. |
→ WTI Crude: ▲ ~6.8% to above $92/bbl › U.S. crude rallied alongside Brent as traders priced in a higher geopolitical risk premium. |
→ Gold: ▼ 2.1% to $4,043.14/oz › Fell sharply as surging oil prices pushed Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar higher, increasing expectations for higher interest rates. |
→ Silver: ▼ 3.8% to $57.44/oz › Precious metals sold off as rising real yields reduced demand for non-yielding assets. |
→ Platinum: ▼ 3.3% to $1,590.58/oz › Declined alongside the broader precious metals complex. |
→ Palladium: ▼ 2.7% to $1,256.50/oz › Extended losses as higher yields and a stronger dollar pressured metals. |
→ Soybeans: ▲ 0.38% to $12.43¾/bu › Climbed to their highest level since May 2024 on strong export demand and weather concerns in the western Corn Belt. |
→ Corn: ▲ 0.43% to $4.87½/bu › Reached a 15-month high as traders monitored hot, dry weather during the critical pollination period. |
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The stinger: |
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Disclaimer: |
This letter is not offering investment, trading, or investment advice nor is based on any individual portfolio or business operation. We are not a registered investment, stock nor commodity advisor. One should consult with their own registered advisor to discuss investment strategies that are appropriate for their business or personal goals, risk tolerance and financial situation. Information in this report and on any website is derived from a variety of source believed to be reliable however no representation is made that the information is accurate, complete or correct. These lessons, newsletter and site content is not intended nor shall not constitute or be construed as an offer or recommendation to “buy”, “sell”, “trade” or invest in any securities, commodities, futures, options or other asset referred to in said lessons, reports or newsletters. Rather, this research is intended to identify situations and circumstances that those in the trading community should be aware of to better help assess and improve their own risk management skills. |
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Disclaimer |
This letter is not offering investment, trading, or investment advice nor is based on any individual portfolio or business operation. We are not a registered investment, stock nor commodity advisor. One should consult with their own registered advisor to discuss investment strategies that are appropriate for their business or personal goals, risk tolerance and financial situation. Information in this report and on any website is derived from a variety of source believed to be reliable however no representation is made that the information is accurate, complete or correct. These lessons, newsletter and site content is not intended nor shall not constitute or be construed as an offer or recommendation to “buy”, “sell”, “trade” or invest in any securities, commodities, futures, options or other asset referred to in said lessons, reports or newsletters. Rather, this research is intended to identify situations and circumstances that those in the trading community should be aware of to better help assess and improve their own risk management skills. |
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment, trading, or financial advice and is not based on any individual’s financial circumstances, goals, or risk tolerance. We are not registered investment, stock, or commodity advisors. Always consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions. |
Information provided in this newsletter (and on any affiliated website) is obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Opinions expressed are those of the authors and are subject to change without notice. |
From time to time, this publication may include sponsored content, affiliate links, or advertisements. Such inclusions do not constitute endorsements, and any compensation received does not influence the analysis or opinions presented. TradingLessons is not affiliated with, nor does it verify or guarantee the claims, products, or services of any sponsor or advertiser. Readers should perform their own due diligence before engaging with any advertised offerings. |
Nothing herein should be interpreted as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy, sell, or trade any security, commodity, derivative, or other financial instrument. This content is intended solely to highlight market developments and educational insights to help readers enhance their understanding of trading and risk management.
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