Hello, Thanks for signing up for MarketBeat Daily Ratings—we’re excited to have you on board. Every weekday, you’ll get a curated summary of new “Buy” and “Sell” ratings from Wall Street’s top-rated analysts, the latest stock news, and bonus investing content—all delivered straight to your inbox. You’re just two quick steps away from completing your sign-up: 1. Make sure our emails go to your inbox Gmail users:
Mobile: Tap the three dots (…) in the top right and select Move to Inbox or Move to Primary
Desktop: Click the folder icon at the top and select Move to Inbox or Primary Apple Mail users:
Tap our email address at the top (next to From: on mobile), then select Add to VIP Other providers:
Reply to this message and add newsletters@analystratings.net to your contacts 2. Confirm your subscription Click this link to confirm your subscription. This verifies your account and ensures you receive your newsletters without interruption instead of getting stuck in your spam filter. Confirm your subscription here. After you confirm, feel free to download our popular free report, "7 Stocks to Buy and Hold Forever" with this link. Thanks again for subscribing—we look forward to being part of your investing journey. 
Matthew Paulson
Founder and CEO, MarketBeat. P.S. If you didn’t mean to subscribe, no problem—you can unsubscribe here.
Saturday's Exclusive Story Starwood Shares Have Struggled, but Catalysts Could Signal a TurnWritten by Jennifer Ryan Woods. Originally Published: 3/31/2026. 
Key Points - Starwood Property Trust has been under pressure from rising interest rates and company-specific challenges, with the stock down more than 30% over the past five years and lagging its peers over the last year.
- Inconsistent earnings, repeated revenue misses, and uneven dividend coverage have weighed on investor sentiment, even as the company has maintained its high dividend payout.
- Recent developments, including a stronger earnings report, improving commentary around dividend coverage, and a newly authorized share buyback, could help shift sentiment if the company delivers more consistent results.
- Special Report: Elon Musk: This Could Turn $100 into $100,000
Over the last several years, the higher interest-rate environment has been a persistent headwind for commercial real estate, and Starwood Property Trust (NYSE: STWD) is no exception. The real estate investment trust (REIT)—which originates, acquires and manages commercial mortgage loans and other real estate-related investments—has seen its stock trend meaningfully lower over the past five years. The most recent year has been especially challenging, as disappointing revenue, declines in book value per share (BVPS) and several quarters in which earnings failed to cover the dividend combined to put pressure on the shares. Still, a mix of recent developments could signal near-term upside. Pandemic Pressure Followed by Rising Rates Pressured Shares For a moment… Forget about Trump's ties to Israel. Forget about reports of Iran's nuclear program. Because my research has led me to believe we're risking World War 3 with Iran for a completely different reason. Click here to find out what it is. Starwood's troubles began during the COVID-19 pandemic, when shares tumbled in early 2020 from roughly $26 to below $10 as mortgage REITs faced liquidity concerns and broad uncertainty across commercial real estate markets. Shares recovered to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2021 as investor confidence returned, but new headwinds appeared soon after: with interest rates rising beginning in March 2022, property values declined and lending margins tightened, once again weighing on commercial mortgage REITs. The impact on STWD has been significant: shares are down more than 30% over the past five years. Peer REITs have also been hit—Ares Commercial Real Estate (NYSE: ACRE), Blackstone Mortgage Trust (NYSE: BXMT) and Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (NYSE: ARI) fell roughly 65%, 40% and 27%, respectively, over the same period. Over the last year, Starwood has underperformed the group. The stock is down about 12% over the past 12 months and, trading near $17.37, has been flirting with the 52-week low set in April 2025. It has also lagged the broader REIT industry, which is off less than 12%, and many close peers. Over the past year, Ares is up roughly 4.75%, Blackstone Mortgage Trust is down about 3.65% and Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance is up more than 10%. Inconsistent Earnings and Dividend Coverage Weigh on Sentiment One persistent issue for Starwood has been inconsistent results. While earnings per share (EPS) have beaten estimates in four of the last six quarters, revenue missed in five of those six. The company has reported negative net interest income in some quarters, which has hurt sentiment. Dividend coverage has also been a concern. For more than a decade the REIT has paid a quarterly dividend of $0.48 per share, yielding about 11.26% today. But over the past four quarters, earnings did not fully cover the payout, producing an unsustainably high payout ratio of roughly 165%. Against a still-challenging higher-rate backdrop, mixed earnings and uneven dividend coverage have made some investors cautious. Still, several recent developments — better-than-expected revenue, management's positive commentary on improving dividend coverage and a newly authorized share repurchase program — could help restore confidence. Stronger Results and a Potential Buyback Could Shift Sentiment In Starwood's Q4 2025 earnings report, released Feb. 25, the REIT reported EPS of $0.42, beating analyst estimates by $0.01. Revenue of $492.95 million came in about $23 million above expectations, marking a rebound after several consecutive revenue misses. Starwood also highlighted a stronger liquidity position, having raised $4.4 billion in capital and finishing the year with $1.4 billion in available liquidity. While EPS still did not cover the $0.48 quarterly dividend, management said it expects dividend coverage to improve steadily during the year. Declining BVPS, however, remains a legitimate concern. After the earnings release, the board authorized a repurchase of up to $400 million of common stock and convertible notes over the next 12 months using existing cash. A buyback representing as much as ~6% of shares outstanding could be meaningful for EPS and provide support for the stock if executed. Wall Street Is Waiting for Clearer Signs of Improvement The market reaction to the Q4 results and buyback was mixed. Shares rose roughly 2% on higher-than-normal volume, but two analysts trimmed their price targets even as they kept Outperform ratings. Currently, four analysts rate the stock a Hold and three rate it a Buy. The average 12-month price target implies nearly 16% upside from current levels. Wall Street may remain cautious until Starwood produces another quarter of solid earnings and revenue, demonstrates improved dividend coverage and begins to repurchase shares. If those things materialize, the outlook could turn more constructive in the near term. | 
