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Special Report Is the Airline Stock Dip After the Iran Attacks Justified?Submitted by Nathan Reiff. Publication Date: 3/10/2026. 
Quick Look - Many airline stocks have plummeted by 20% or more in the last month amid the start of war in Iran and related oil price volatility.
- Airline companies face numerous negative pressures related to the war, including canceled flights, the potential for suppressed demand, and more.
- Jet fuel prices and cracks have spiked, meaning that even airlines not doing business within the area of conflict will feel the repercussions.
As the war in Iran appears likely to continue, it is not surprising that airline stocks have been among the first to feel a meaningful impact. These shares are closely tied to fuel costs, geopolitical stability and consumer demand—all three of which have become more volatile as the conflict escalates and spreads. Both major carriers and smaller domestic and regional names have seen their shares decline sharply: Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) and American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ: AAL) have dropped roughly 22% and 27%, respectively, over the past month. For investors, a price decline can present an opportunity to add to positions in the airline sector. But it's important to weigh whether the initial shock from the conflict—and the associated oil-price concerns—justifies the selloff given airlines' recent domestic resilience. Conversely, if the conflict proves prolonged and drives further weakness, waiting to enter or build a position may be the wiser course. Major Air Carriers Face Multiple Negative Drivers Famed historian Yuval Noah Harari recently issued a warning that should send a shiver down the spine of every American. He predicts the emergence of a massive new useless class. These aren't just people who are temporarily unemployed. These are people who have become economically irrelevant. As Luke Lango and I just exposed in our recent interview, we have reached the singularity. For the first time in 250 years, intelligence has been decoupled from labor. During America's first 1776 moment, the steam engine replaced muscle. In this new 1776 moment, AI is replacing the human mind.
This is why you see the Magnificent 7 tech giants adding trillions in value while the real economy feels like it's in a death spiral. The divide is widening. On one side: the useless class who cling to old-world skills. On the other: the new aristocracy who own the assets of the technological republic. Luke and I have identified the three specific money moves our research indicates you must make to ensure you stay on the winning side of this divide. See the three moves to stay on the winning side of AI Delta, American and other large carriers have suffered particularly since the onset of the conflict because several negative factors are hitting at once. First, thousands of commercial flights to and from destinations across the Middle East have been canceled—creating operational and logistical costs while reducing revenue opportunities. Second—and perhaps the most significant—is the rise in jet-fuel costs. The Argus US Jet Fuel Index climbed to $3.88 on March 6 from $2.50 a week earlier. While crude oil has been volatile since the conflict began, refined petroleum products have seen even greater strain. Jet fuel prices and "cracks"—the difference between crude oil and refined jet-fuel prices—have surged. Third, consumer demand is less tangible but also a concern. In its most recent earnings report, Delta remained upbeat about demand despite headwinds from the government shutdown, citing loyalty-program and cargo growth, improved non-ticket (ancillary) revenues and other positives. United Airlines (NASDAQ: UAL) likewise reported in its Q4 2025 report a highest-ever seat completion factor and a 12% year-over-year increase in premium revenue. As consumers anticipate higher gasoline and goods prices driven by oil-market volatility, leisure travel could decline as households reallocate spending—an effect that may persist even after fuel markets stabilize. Can Regional Airlines Fare Any Better? Even carriers that do not operate in the Middle East are being affected. Domestic-only and international airlines outside the region remain exposed to higher fuel costs and demand shifts. One modest bright spot: shares of Air Canada (TSE: AC) have fallen by only about 13% in the past month. Still, that decline is hardly a win for the industry as a whole. Some Wall Street analysts have already adjusted expectations—since the start of the month, for example, Weiss downgraded DAL to Hold from Buy, and other firms have trimmed price targets. As a result, some investors may choose to wait for further price weakness before buying. Watching short-interest trends can also help gauge market sentiment. Some carriers, including American, were already seeing rising short interest before the conflict began, a trend that may accelerate. Ultimately, depending on the length and breadth of the conflict, the start of 2026 could feel eerily similar to early 2020, when COVID-19 grounded the airline industry worldwide. For stocks to reach those lows, prices would have to fall significantly further than they already have. Bearish investors may sit on the sideline to see how low airline shares can fly.
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