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Just For You Wall Street Loves FIGS. So Why Do Price Targets Predict a Pullback?Submitted by Jennifer Woods. Originally Published: 3/2/2026. After a stunning plunge following its 2021 IPO, medical and lifestyle apparel company FIGS, Inc. (NYSE: FIGS) has roared back to a price it hasn't reached in nearly four years. The stock has surged almost 260% over the past year, including a 58% gain in the last month alone. The rally has been fueled by strong earnings reports and a wave of bullish analyst commentary. Yet despite the rally and positive sentiment, the consensus 12-month price target sits at just $12.25 — almost 30% below the current stock price. That raises the question: how much of this recovery is supported by fundamentals, and how much is momentum? A closer look at FIGS' recent earnings and the stock's price movement offers some clues. Early investors in FIGS saw a quick windfall after the company's IPO, which debuted in May 2021 at $22 per share and surged to $50 within a month. Demand for medical apparel was strong during the COVID-19 pandemic, but as the pandemic eased, shares reversed sharply and were trading below $8 within a year. In the years that followed, FIGS remained mostly range-bound in the single digits. After dipping below $4 in April 2025, however, the stock began another rally — this time to the upside. Earnings Momentum Sparks Rally Steady gains followed positive Q1 and Q2 2025 earnings reports, but the Q3 2025 results, released on Nov. 6, accelerated the move. The report showed stronger-than-expected revenue growth, solid demand across its core business, and healthy margins despite tariff pressures. The company also raised its full-year guidance for net revenue and adjusted EBITDA margins. Wall Street responded, pushing the stock up more than 30% over the following week and prompting Zacks Research to upgrade FIGS to Strong Buy from Hold. Introducing "Elon Musk's Day-One Retirement Plan"
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- Strong earnings have fueled the rally
- Stock is trading almost 30% above the average price target
- Special Report: [Sponsorship-Ad-6-Format3]
The momentum continued after the Q4 2025 earnings report on Feb. 26. The company posted a 33% jump in revenue and its best quarterly revenue to date, with sales topping $200 million. In its earnings call, management highlighted strength across the business, including growth in its active customer base and higher average order values. Scrubwear — more than three-quarters of net revenue — was a standout, rising 35%, while international sales climbed 55%. The fourth quarter capped a strong year: full-year net revenue rose 14% year-over-year to a record $630 million. Despite tariff-related pressure on gross margins, profitability remained solid, with full-year adjusted EBITDA margin beating its target by more than 200 basis points. Earnings And Outlook Spark Analyst Support FIGS issued an upbeat outlook for the year ahead, expecting continued demand driven in part by growth in healthcare jobs. The company plans to expand into new international markets, prioritize growth initiatives across businesses, and continue its stock buyback program. For fiscal 2026, FIGS expects net revenue to grow 10% to 12%, with improving profitability targets. Analysts were quick to respond with a flurry of upgrades and target revisions. Barclays raised its rating to Strong Buy from Hold, KeyCorp moved to Overweight from Sector Weight with a $17 target, and Goldman Sachs shifted to Hold from Strong Sell. BTIG reiterated a Buy rating with a $15 target, and Telsey Advisory raised its target to $15 from $9. FIGS Stock Pushes Past Price Targets Strong earnings have clearly driven FIGS to four-year highs. Shares began climbing even before the Q4 report, jumping nearly 14% in the session ahead of the release. After the results, the rally intensified: the stock surged 24% on the first trading day following the report and gained another 10% the next day. As of March 4, the stock was trading above $17, roughly 30% above the average 12-month price target of $12.25 based on 10 analyst reports. That is more than double Morgan Stanley's $8 target issued in January and sits at or above many of the revised targets, including KeyCorp's $17. The gap between bullish analyst commentary and lower price targets suggests that while analysts like FIGS' improving fundamentals, they remain cautious about valuation. At current levels, shares trade at a price-to-earnings ratio near 90, indicating much of the company's expected growth may already be priced in. Investors are clearly applauding the turnaround, but skepticism persists about whether the stock can sustain this climb or if a pullback may be coming.
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