It's no surprise that this has contributed to plenty of volatility in the major indexes...
Regular readers know that we track the S&P 500 Index with the State Street SPDR S&P 500 Fund (SPY). And we track the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index via the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ).
Last week, SPY fell more than 2% in three trading days before clawing back gains on Friday. And a similar story played out with QQQ. It dropped by nearly 5% before paring losses at the end of the week.
Naturally, those falls drove investor fear higher...
We can see it clearly with CNN's Fear and Greed Index. It's a gauge of investor sentiment based on seven indicators.
The Fear and Greed Index hit a recent peak of 65 out of 100 on January 27. That's firmly in the "greed" category.
But by this past Thursday, the index had plunged to 34... which is "fear" territory.
In its reading earlier this morning, the Fear and Greed Index stood at 49 out of 100. That's a "neutral" level.
I don't blame investors for being scared amid all this volatility. However, we went through something similar late last year. And no matter what happens going forward with the markets, it's a good reminder to keep a level head...
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History Doesn't Repeat Itself, But It Often Rhymes
In November 2025, the U.S. was fresh off the longest government shutdown in history.
Plenty of tech stocks reported better-than-expected earnings. But they still saw tired investors head for the exits.
You see, over the past decade, November has been the best month for SPY, on average. And also on average, it's the second-best month for QQQ.
On the surface, February looks like the opposite of November.
On average over the past 10 years, it's the second-worst month for both SPY and QQQ.
SPY averaged a loss of 0.3% in the month of February over that period. And QQQ did a bit worse. It averaged a loss of 0.4% for the same month during that time frame.
Overall, a monthly loss like that doesn't seem so bad. And given the chaos we've seen recently, I doubt many folks would complain too much if the markets ended up losing less than half a percentage point this month.
But the story gets more complex when we dive deeper into it...
This February Could Be Better Than Expected
In the table below, you'll note that not every February in the past decade ended on a sour note...
You'll also see that February 2020 saw unusually large losses for both funds...
And you can probably guess the cause – the market collapse during the global COVID-19 pandemic.
In that context, those big losses for SPY and QQQ make sense.
And when we exclude those outliers, the numbers change quite a bit. You can see that both funds average a small gain instead of a small loss in that new dataset.
I don't have a crystal ball. So I can't say that we'll end up having a good February. And we all know historical trends don't guarantee a future outcome.
But we can't afford to panic, either...
Yes, we've seen plenty of chaos out there. And the markets have been volatile. But remember that volatility can cut both ways – to the upside and the downside.
And even if the markets don't end on a high note this February, at least we aren't dealing with a global pandemic as well.
Good investing,
Vic Lederman
Market View
Major Indexes and Notable Sectors
# Hld: Bullish Neutral Bearish
Dow 30
+0.04%
9
18
3
S&P 500
+0.48%
125
280
92
Nasdaq
+0.77%
25
49
26
Small Caps
+0.7%
661
926
302
Bonds
-0.02%
Information Technology
+1.57%
22
35
11
— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks and Large Cap stocks are Bullish. Major indexes are mixed.
* * * *
Sector Tracker
Sector movement over the last 5 days
Energy
+7.17%
Materials
+5.1%
Industrials
+3.68%
Consumer Staples
+3.47%
Real Estate
+3.15%
Utilities
+2.02%
Health Care
+0.4%
Financial
-0.17%
Information Technology
-1.31%
Communication
-2.33%
Consumer Discretionary
-3.62%
* * * *
Industry Focus
Retail Services
10
45
18
Over the past 6 months, the Retail subsector (XRT) has outperformed the S&P 500 by +0.76%. However, its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Weak, with more Bearish than Bullish stocks. It is currently ranked #17 of 21 subsectors and has moved down 1 slot over the past week.
Indicative Stocks
AZO
AutoZone, Inc.
BKE
The Buckle, Inc.
BBWI
Bath & Body Works, I
* * * *
Top Movers
Gainers
APP
+13.19%
ORCL
+9.64%
GLW
+7.56%
Q
+7.11%
VTRS
+6.72%
Losers
WAT
-13.94%
WTW
-12.1%
AJG
-9.85%
AON
-9.27%
MRSH
-7.51%
* * * *
Earnings Report
Earnings Surprises
APO Apollo Global Management, Inc.
Q4
$2.47
Beat by $0.43
CINF Cincinnati Financial Corporation
Q4
$3.37
Beat by $0.48
ACGL Arch Capital Group Ltd.
Q4
$2.98
Beat by $0.41
MEDP Medpace Holdings, Inc.
Q4
$4.67
Beat by $0.44
BDX Becton, Dickinson and Company
Q1
$2.91
Beat by $0.10
* * * *
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