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Additional Reading from MarketBeat Media Battle of the Black Friday Stocks: Amazon vs. Walmart vs. TargetWritten by Nathan Reiff. Published 11/17/2025. 
Key Points - U.S. consumers are projected to spend more than $1 trillion on holiday shopping for the first time ever.
- Major retailers like Amazon, Walmart, and Target are poised to benefit from this trend.
- Walmart's omnichannel approach may give it an advantage on Black Friday, but Amazon's unparalleled logistics network and competitive pricing make it an overall holiday retail winner.
As Black Friday's reach extends to Small Business Saturday, Cyber Monday, and, in some cases, the entire month of November, retail sales have expanded accordingly. The National Retail Federation estimates that the 2025 winter holidays (extending from November to December) will see more than $1 trillion in U.S. retail sales for the first time, an increase of between 3.7% and 4.2% over 2024's figures. Despite waning consumer confidence and persistent inflation, Black Friday remains an essential driver of retail sales at the start of the holiday season. Three core retailers positioned to benefit from increased spending after Thanksgiving are Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT), and Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT). How will these retail giants fare in 2025, and which is likely to come out on top? Amazon: The Online Juggernaut In the United States, Amazon is the undisputed champion of online retail. Although the e-commerce giant has focused on expanding its digital presence into cloud, ads, and other services in recent years, its retail business remains substantial. The company's Black Friday deals run for nearly two weeks, from November 20 to December 1, and cover sales across all categories, with electronics, toys, and beauty traditionally among the top sellers. In 2024, the company hosted its most successful Black Friday sales event to date. It also claims the lowest online prices of any major U.S. retailer—a distinction it has maintained for nearly a decade. Amazon's vast assortment and ability to undercut rivals on price are largely enabled by its logistics advantages. The firm is even preparing to leverage its distribution network to disrupt the grocery space, one of the few remaining areas where brick-and-mortar stores have traditionally held an advantage. Walmart: The Omnichannel King Originally a traditional retailer, Walmart has successfully pivoted to an omnichannel strategy that combines in-store and online sales. This approach is paying off in the U.S. and internationally, helping produce some of its best earnings reports in recent quarters. Walmart has even attracted some third-party sellers from Amazon's platform, making its e-commerce marketplace an important growth driver. Additionally, Walmart's robust fulfillment network lets it price competitively and manage inventory effectively for both in-store and online channels. The company also benefits from one of the most loyal customer bases among leading retailers. Target: The Challenger Target, while a household name, is smaller than Amazon and Walmart, so it has carved out a niche to stay competitive on Black Friday. The company emphasizes curation—a smaller third-party marketplace and a more selective brand mix than larger competitors. That strategy has helped Target build a reputation for offering strong value on quality items across categories. Its store pickup program (buy online, pick up in store) surged during the COVID-19 pandemic and remains popular. Target has faced headwinds in recent quarters, including a notable boycott after rolling back its DEI program. The Black Friday sales period could be an opportunity for a rebound or a chance to fall further behind larger competitors. Key Metrics Comparison On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, Walmart has the most momentum heading into Black Friday. WMT shares are up about 14% this year, compared with gains of 8% for AMZN and a decline of about 34% for TGT. Looking at holiday revenue estimates, Amazon forecasts fourth-quarter revenues between $206 billion and $213 billion; neither Walmart nor Target has provided public holiday revenue forecasts as of this writing. Amazon's online store sales for the latest quarter reached $67.4 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, representing roughly 63% of total sales for the period. Walmart's latest annual report shows $121 billion in online sales, accounting for just under 18% of total revenue during the period. Target does not provide an equivalent breakdown, but its digital comparable sales growth has recently outpaced overall sales growth. So, Who Wins Black Friday 2025? With its omnichannel strategy, large and loyal customer base, and competitive pricing, Walmart appears well-positioned to dominate the Black Friday retail race this year. Investors looking to capitalize on Walmart's performance may find an opportunity to buy shares ahead of its earnings release, expected on November 20, which will reflect the Black Friday sales period. That said, in the broader retail landscape Amazon may emerge as a leader. Its unmatched product breadth, consistently low prices, and the tailwinds from AWS, cloud services and advertising give it significant advantages. Finally, while Black Friday is most prominent in the United States, the wider holiday season matters globally, and Amazon's massive international footprint adds another edge heading into the season.
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