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Further Reading from MarketBeat Media 3 Smart Defensive Stocks for an Uneasy MarketWritten by Chris Markoch. Published 11/18/2025. 
Key Points - Despite new market highs, recession risks remain elevated due to weakening consumer credit and signs of job market stress.
- Procter & Gamble and Johnson & Johnson offer stable dividends, strong balance sheets, and catalysts that could provide upside in a downturn.
- A rotation away from AI and into Dow components could make the DIA ETF a compelling defensive play for 2025.
At one point in early November, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) briefly topped 48,000 for the first time ever. At various points in 2025, the NASDAQ and S&P 500 also reached new all-time highs. Despite sharp swings, 2025 has been a strong year for stock owners. Yet many economists, analysts, and investors remain uneasy. The market appears priced for perfection — recession risks, by contrast, may not be fully reflected in prices.
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Click here to get your free copy + up to $10,000 in free silver while supplies last. Even with broad gains, skepticism persists. The Magnificent 7 trade may have cooled off, but a narrow group of names — largely tied to the AI boom — is still lifting the market. The K-Shaped Economy Concern Current economic commentary often centers on a K-shaped recovery. Higher-income consumers are navigating inflation of roughly 3% — still above the Federal Reserve's informal 2% target but more manageable for affluent households. Lower-income consumers, however, have been under pressure for several years. Rising credit defaults, delinquent auto loans and an uptick in foreclosures suggest this strain is intensifying. The labor market, once the economy's strongest pillar, is beginning to show signs of wear. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) recently trimmed its estimate of recession probability from 60% to 40% after a de-escalation in trade tensions. That still represents a material risk. Market Breadth Remains Narrow as Investors Chase Mega-Caps Charles Schwab data shows the percentage of S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages was slightly above 50%. Historically, that level indicates narrow market breadth and adds to investor concern. This isn't a replay of 2021, when investors poured money into unprofitable SPACs hoping to strike it rich. Today's froth is concentrated in mega-cap stocks that generally have strong balance sheets, but many investors worry these names are overvalued. So what's an investor to do? Below are three stocks (and one ETF) that offer a more asymmetric return profile in an uneasy market. Procter & Gamble Has More Than a Dividend to Like Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE: PG) is a member of the exclusive Dividend Kings club, having raised its dividend for at least 50 consecutive years — 70 years in PG's case — making it a staple for income-oriented portfolios. The current 2.8% dividend yield could look more attractive if rates fall. Analysts' $171.53 price target implies roughly 17% upside for the stock in 2025. It's unclear how the proposed acquisition of Kenvue (NYSE: KVUE) would affect PG's earnings. If the deal closes and any Tylenol-related controversy subsides, the transaction would likely cause modest EPS dilution in the first year. Over time, however, cost synergies between the companies could help the deal become accretive to earnings. Johnson & Johnson Doubles Down on Medtech and Oncology Growth Another candidate is Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), which spun off Kenvue in 2023 to focus more heavily on medtech and pharmaceuticals. Its recent $3.5 billion acquisition of Halda Therapeutics is one example of that strategy. The all-cash deal gives JNJ access to the clinical-stage company's HLD-0915 drug candidate, a once-daily oral prostate cancer medication that received fast-track designation from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). That candidate could materially bolster JNJ's oncology pipeline and make the stock more appealing to investors seeking growth exposure in health care. The DIA ETF Could Benefit From a Flight to Safety Over the past five years, many investors embraced a passive "SPY and chill" approach, putting money into the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA: SPY). SPY may still be reasonable for many investors, but with potential AI-driven overexuberance, it may be worth considering the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSEARCA: DIA) as a defensive rotation play. If concerns about an AI bubble gain traction, money could rotate into the Dow 30 constituents, making DIA a way to capture that shift. As of this writing, DIA has about 37% institutional ownership, but it has seen net buying in seven of the last eight quarters — suggesting institutions may be building a hedge against a potential slowdown in the tech trade.
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