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Featured News from MarketBeat.com The Off-Price Retail King? Why TJX Looks Ready to Break OutWritten by Thomas Hughes. Published 11/20/2025. 
Key Points - TJX Companies' Q3 results and guidance update point to the continuation of existing stock price trends.
- Cash flow fuels a healthy capital return, including dividends, distribution growth, and buybacks.
- Analysts and institutions are supporting this market and pushing it higher in late 2025.
The macroeconomic and retail environment is favorable for The TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX), as reflected in its results and stock performance. The macroeconomic headwinds that have shifted consumer habits and materially affected results for major retailers have created a stronger buying backdrop for off-price players like The TJX Companies, allowing it to offer attractive value to consumers who remain resilient. Forget ChatGPT.
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Our Black Friday sale expires soon and with it, your chance to get VIP Unlimited access for $79 and uncover Elon's #1 AI Stock to Buy ASAP! Get the details here >>> The takeaway is that industry-leading growth in Q3, combined with outperformance and guidance that appears conservative for Q4, supports the view that the uptrend in TJX shares is likely to continue.  TJX Companies Outperforms and Raises Guidance for the Year The TJX Companies delivered a strong quarter, reporting revenue of $15.12 billion, up 7.0% year-over-year (YOY) and 175 basis points ahead of consensus. Strength was driven by a 5% systemwide comparable-sales gain, broad strength across all divisions, and a 1.1% increase in store count. TJX Canada led the growth, up 8% YOY, followed by a 6% gain in the core Marmaxx divisions, 5% in HomeGoods, and 3% internationally. All segments contributed to net growth and supported margin expansion. Margin performance was also strong. A 100-basis-point improvement in gross margin, combined with operating efficiencies, produced leveraged earnings growth. GAAP EPS rose 12%, helped by share repurchases that reduced the weighted-average share count by about 1.3% for the quarter. Q4 guidance came in slightly below expectations. Nonetheless, the shortfall versus MarketBeat's consensus is minor and does not erase the strong year-to-date performance. As a result, full-year guidance was raised: the company now expects comparable-store growth around 4% and set earnings at a $4.63 low end—more than a nickel above consensus estimates. Given recent trends, guidance appears conservative and actual results may beat when Q4 is reported in January. Capital Returns Drive TJX Companies Stock Price Higher Capital returns are a key driver of TJX's stock performance. The company pays a dividend and repurchases shares, reducing its share count consistently each year. The dividend yield is around the S&P 500 average, but the payout is well-covered and growing. The payout ratio is low—below 40%—supporting the likelihood of continued annual increases for this Dividend Aristocrat. Excluding any COVID-19–related pause, the company has raised its distribution for nearly 30 years and appears positioned to sustain a robust compound growth rate for the foreseeable future. TJX Companies' balance sheet shows no red flags for investors, and offers incentives for ownership. Q3 highlights include higher current and total assets driven by increased cash and inventory, partly offset by modest liability growth and lower debt. The result was nearly a 15% increase in shareholder equity, accompanied by persistently low leverage—the company is net cash, with long-term debt at roughly 0.2x equity. Analysts Trends Drive TJX Stock to New Highs The analyst trends are strong and align with the fundamental and technical outlook: expanded coverage, firmer sentiment, 25 analysts with a Buy rating, and rising price targets. Consensus views peg the stock as fairly valued after the Q3 release, but the trend points toward the high end of the range—near $170—implying roughly 17% upside from mid-November levels.
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