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Battle of the Black Friday Stocks: Amazon vs. Walmart vs. Target
Authored by Nathan Reiff. Published: 11/17/2025.
At a Glance
- U.S. consumers are projected to spend more than $1 trillion on holiday shopping for the first time ever.
- Major retailers like Amazon, Walmart, and Target are poised to benefit from this trend.
- Walmart's omnichannel approach may give it an advantage on Black Friday, but Amazon's unparalleled logistics network and competitive pricing make it an overall holiday retail winner.
As Black Friday expands into Small Business Saturday, Cyber Monday and — in some cases — the entire month of November, retail sales have grown accordingly.
The National Retail Federation estimates the 2025 winter holidays (November through December) will generate more than $1 trillion in U.S. retail sales for the first time, a rise of roughly 3.7%–4.2% over 2024. Despite weakening consumer confidence and persistent inflation, Black Friday remains a key catalyst for holiday spending.
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Three core retailers positioned to benefit from post-Thanksgiving spending are Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) and Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT). How are these retail giants set to perform in 2025, and which is likely to come out on top?
Amazon: The Online Juggernaut
In the U.S., Amazon is the dominant force in online retail.
Although the e-commerce giant has expanded into cloud computing, advertising and other services, its retail business remains enormous. Amazon's Black Friday deals traditionally run for nearly two weeks — in 2025 the promotion runs from November 20 to December 1 — and span all major categories, with electronics, toys and beauty among the top sellers.
In 2024 the company hosted its most successful Black Friday event to date, and it consistently posts some of the lowest online prices of any major U.S. retailer. That pricing edge, combined with unmatched product selection and logistics scale, gives Amazon a powerful competitive advantage.
The firm is also preparing to leverage its distribution network to disrupt the grocery space, one of the few areas where traditional stores have maintained strength.
Walmart: The Omnichannel King
Originally a traditional retailer, Walmart has successfully pivoted to an omnichannel model that blends in-store and online shopping.
That strategy has supported strong results in the U.S. and abroad, contributing to some of the company's best recent earnings. Walmart has also attracted third-party sellers away from Amazon, helping its marketplace become an important growth driver.
Walmart's extensive fulfillment network allows for competitive pricing and smarter inventory planning across both channels. Combined with one of the most loyal customer bases in retail, that makes Walmart a formidable Black Friday competitor.
Target: The Challenger
Target, while smaller than Amazon and Walmart, has carved out a niche by focusing on curation and a more curated assortment of brands in its marketplace.
That strategy has built Target's reputation for delivering value on quality items across many categories. Its popular store pickup program — where customers order online and collect in-store — remains a differentiator introduced during the COVID-19 era.
Target has faced headwinds recently, including a boycott after rolling back aspects of its DEI program. The Black Friday period could be an important chance for the company to rally or risk losing further ground to its larger rivals.
Key Metrics Comparison
On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, Walmart appears to have the most momentum heading into Black Friday. WMT shares are up about 14% this year, versus AMZN gains of around 8% and a drop of roughly 34% for TGT.
For holiday revenue, Amazon forecasts fourth-quarter revenue between $206 billion and $213 billion; neither Walmart nor Target had published holiday revenue forecasts at the time of writing. Amazon's online store sales for the latest quarter reached $67.4 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase and roughly 63% of total sales for the period.
Walmart's latest annual report shows $121 billion in online sales, just under 18% of total revenue. Target does not publish a similar breakdown, though its digital comparable sales growth has recently outpaced overall sales growth.
So, Who Wins Black Friday 2025?
In the U.S. market, Walmart's omnichannel reach, loyal customer base and competitive pricing make it the most likely dominant player during Black Friday this year.
Investors looking to play that strength may consider buying shares before Walmart's earnings release, expected on November 20, which will provide fresh insight into Black Friday results.
That said, on the broader retail stage Amazon remains a powerful contender. Its ability to underprice competitors across a wider assortment, plus the tailwinds from AWS, advertising and international reach, give it advantages that extend beyond U.S.-only Black Friday dynamics.
Target's outcome is less certain: Black Friday could help it rebound if it reengages shoppers effectively, but the company also risks falling further behind if headwinds persist.
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