Grab your tea leaves, break out your crystal balls: In the first House special election of the year, Democrat Joe Suozzi comfortably defeated Republican Mazi Pilip, 54 percent to 46 percent, for the Long Island seat recently held by Republican George Santos. Happy Wednesday. Border-Hawk Dem PrevailsShortly before the polls closed last night, I sat down to read up on the demography and voting habits of New York’s third congressional district. What could I learn from the psephologists that should inform my analysis here? But hey! NY-03 mostly consists of the North Shore of Long Island. That’s where The Great Gatsby is set. Hmmm, I wondered: Is Fitzgerald as good as I thought he was when I read him in college? Probably not. But I needed to check. So I took a look at the novel. My conclusion: I’m not sure how great Fitzgerald really was. But he sure could write. Yikes! The election returns were now coming in. Whoa! It was over. The race was already called. Oh well, too late for all that detailed psephological stuff. So instead, three broad takeaways. First: The Democrat, Tom Suozzi, won by about eight points, the same as Joe Biden’s margin in 2020. So the 2022 mini-red wave in New York that led to the election of Republican George Santos in NY-03 seems no longer in evidence. So could 2024 be 2020 all over again? Are we just going to replay the 2020 presidential election and end up with basically the same result, as in this congressional district? I can’t quite believe 2024 will be that simple and straightforward. But it’s possible. In any case: Last night’s results were good for the Democrats. Second: Republicans pummeled Suozzi on immigration with waves of hyperbolic border-invasion ads. But in his three terms in Congress Suozzi had been, for a Democrat, something of a border hawk. And he had plenty of money to portray himself as that. Indeed, he did so aggressively. When Republicans in Congress torpedoed the border bill, Suozzi attacked them for doing so and lamented that it would not now be able to expel “eighty percent” of asylum seekers and to stop migrants from flooding New York. In any case: Here at least immigration was not a Republican silver bullet. Third: Suozzi and outside Democratic groups (who outspent Pilip and the Republicans by about two to one) succeeded in portraying the Republican candidate, MAGA-ish political newcomer Mazi Melesa Pilip, as extreme and untrustworthy. That message might have had particular resonance in the district that had just made the mistake of electing George Santos. Do Suozzi’s successful attacks on a little known and inexperienced MAGA candidate translate into an effective strategy at the presidential level, against Donald Trump, a former president and experienced demagogue who’s shown a gift for not paying as much of a price as he should for his untrustworthiness and extremism? Hard to know. In any case: A moderate Democrat who proclaimed his moderation and his distance from his party’s Left, and to a degree from the national party as a whole, won comfortably in a district that went Republican due to concerns about crime, inflation, and the border just two years ago. Actually, I have a fourth takeaway: Take a (short!) break from politics and read The Great Gatsby. “And so we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.” —William Kristol Catching up:
A Little Impeachment, as a Treat
The 214-213 vote, with three Republicans opposed, followed last week’s failed attempt, which deadlocked 215-215 with House Majority Leader Steve Scalise away for cancer treatment. With the possibility of Tom Suozzi being seated as early as Thursday, Republicans only had a narrow window to squeak impeachment past the post. Impeachment may be DOA in the Senate, but the timing of the measure matters for one important reason, as Republican strategist Liam Donovan notes: “The Senate comes back from recess with a week to avert a partial shutdown and an impeachment trial to dispose of before it can do much to that end.” Kari and the SwampYesterday, we briefly mentioned the news that the National Republican Senatorial Committee—the campaign arm of Senate Republican leadership—was endorsing Kari Lake, the election denier, MAGA firebreather, and failed 2022 gubernatorial candidate now running for Senate in Arizona. But it’s worth taking a minute more to unpack the odd-couple partnership between Lake and the D.C. Swamp—and what it says about how the MAGA playbook is likely to play out around the country in election after election this year. In recent years, the NRSC has rarely put a thumb on the scale in Republican primaries, waiting for the party’s state standard-bearers to emerge before whirring into action to support them. When it has gotten involved, it’s usually been to help a more buttoned-up nominee edge out a grassroots insurgent so as to maximize their odds of beating the Democrat in the general election. Lake is hardly an NRSC dream candidate. They may not care so much about the election denial and Trump boosterism, but she has already shown one quality they definitely dislike: the ability to fritter away a winnable election. But her recent loss hasn’t hurt Lake among Arizona primary voters, in part because—stop us if you’ve heard this one before—many don’t believe she actually lost. Lake has relentlessly flogged the narrative that the 2022 election was stolen from her, catnip for the MAGA base that already loved her hard-charging rhetoric denouncing illegal immigration, the COVID vaccines, and moderate Republicans. A parade of big names in Republican Arizona—former Gov. Doug Ducey, former gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson, former Senate candidate Blake Masters—all passed on running for the seat this year, correctly perceiving Lake was more unbeatable than ever in a Republican primary. So you can see what the NRSC is thinking. We’re stuck with Lake, so we might as well make peace with her now. After all, Lake needs their support: She’s got little money in her campaign coffers—eight times less than her Democratic opponent Rep. Ruben Gallego, 13 times less than incumbent Sen Kyrsten Sinema—and has not made peace with the state’s big Republican funders that she offended during her gubernatorial run. By getting on board early, the NRSC is also betting they can also make her more of a team player: You catch more flies with honey! Glance through Politico’s piece that broke the news—sourced heavily to NRSC officials—and the glow-up narrative is plain as day: Lake, we learn, is ready to “play nice” and “move beyond” her former antics. She was apparently a hit among donors at the NRSC’s winter meeting last weekend at The Breakers in Palm Beach: “I did come away impressed,” one told Politico. “I thought she was not at all like the caricature that’s sometimes painted of her in the media.” All this was met with some bemusement back in Arizona, where many Republicans who follow Lake closely were surprised to learn how ready she supposedly was to turn over a new leaf. Local observers point out that Lake continues her endless, fruitless attempts to prove the 2022 election was stolen in court—her latest loss on that front came back in November—and has continued her intraparty knife fighting too: She forced the resignation of Arizona GOP Chair Jeff DeWit just two weeks ago after she leaked audio of him cajoling her not to run for Senate. “We’re still trying to figure out who that Kari Lake is Politico wrote about,” one Arizona Republican strategist told The Bulwark. “Looking forward to hearing that person speak.” What does peace between GOP party factions look like in 2024? Establishment fundraising groups beseeching election deniers: Please don’t be so obviously crazy that we can’t raise money for you. ICYMI:Tim Miller hosted James Carville for a festive edition of the The Bulwark Podcast:
Will Saletan joined Mona Charen to discuss Trump’s “sir” story about letting Russia invade a NATO country on Just Between Us:
Quick Hits1. Saletan on the Old MenLeading The Bulwark today, Will Saletan on Trump and Biden’s respective handling of classified documents:
2. Biden’s Full-Court Ukraine PressPresident Biden spoke from the White House yesterday, pressuring House Speaker Mike Johnson—who has vowed to block the Ukraine aid passed by the Senate yesterday—to bring the package up for a vote:
Cheap Shots
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