| As ballots continue to be counted and results drip in, today's local elections have been cast as a 'turning point' for Labour and a humiliation for Boris Johnson. Focusing on London, where the Tories lost control of symbolic authorities like Westminster, Wandsworth and Barnet, that may well be true - but looking further north the picture does not so comfortably fit into that narrative. Labour suffered a series of setbacks in places like Oldham, where leader Arooj Shah lost her seat to the Tories, and a disappointing lack of progress in others such as Hartlepool. As it stands, from the 22 councils that have so far declared results overnight across the North, Labour is down by 11 seats, the Tories are up by two, the Lib Dems by six and the Greens by seven. Labour are so far down by 11 seats across the North. Graphic: Carly Holds While success in the new Cumberland authority will be a welcome surprise for Sir Keir Starmer, is the party showing the recovery needed in the North to win the next general election? Polling guru Sir John Curtice is doubtful, he said: "There is so far very little evidence of the Labour Party making particularly significant advances in the so-called Red Wall. "This is certainly not a local election performance that in any sense indicates a party that is on course for winning a general election with an overall majority, indeed I'm not sure whether we could even say that at this point it's guaranteed or necessarily on course even to be the largest party in the next Parliament." But it's worth pointing out that today's results are in seats which were mostly last fought in 2018. As Chris Curtis of Opinium points out here, this was a successful campaign for Labour which came before the Red Wall collapsed in 2019. And Labour say if the results so far were replicated in the next General Election they would expect to take back seats including Carlisle, Copeland, Great Grimsby and Hartlepool. Whatever the deeper analysis, the Tories will struggle to escape the fact that it was a difficult night for their party and many will be reflecting on whether the Prime Minister is still the electoral asset he once was.  There's still plenty more Northern councils to return results over the course of today, as well as the South Yorkshire mayoral election. And The Northern Agenda team will be analysing the ups and downs in a live podcast special at 3pm. Tune in here to watch it.  Labour seize control of new Cumberland authority Cumberland Council election count in Workington By far the best result of the night for Keir Starmer in the North was in Cumbria, with the Labour Party forming the first ever administration at the newly-formed Cumberland Council. The result, in an area which has three sitting Conservative MPs in Carlisle, Copeland and Workington, saw the outgoing Carlisle Tory leader launching a scathing attack on Boris Johnson, writes Melissa Major of LancsLive. Asked if he thought Conservative MPs should oust the PM, John Mallinson said: "That would be my preference, yes." A local government shake-up means Cumbria's six district councils and county council are being replaced by two new unitary authorities. The other, Westmorland and Furness, declares its results this afternoon. And in Cumberland, Labour took 30 of the 46 seats up for grabs across Allerdale, Carlisle and Copeland, and will use the next year under the shadow authority before taking up office on April 1, 2023. In Lancashire, there were further gains for Labour in Chorley as they won three seats from the Tories and maintained its grip on Preston.  A message from BVCA: Manchester-based British Engineering Services (BES), which tests, inspects and certifies businesses for their safety, has roughly 30,000 customers across the UK and Ireland. Integral to that success is Inflexion, a mid-market private equity firm, that first invested in BES in 2015. It's just one of many businesses in the North West that is benefiting from private capital's investment in the region. For more examples of businesses that are benefitting from private capital, visit the BVCA website, or read the latest report from EY, Measuring the contribution of private equity and venture capital to the UK economy in 2021 here. Lib Dems take Hull as Labour vote crumbles Victorious Lib Dem members celebrate after winning Hull City council The Liberal Democrats took control of Hull City Council overnight as support for the ruling Labour group collapsed. In opposition since 2011, the Lib Dems toppled Labour cabinet member Cllr Gwen Lunn and were set to take out Cllr John Black, the ruling group's longest-serving member. The party's leader Cllr Mike Ross told HullLive: "Tonight is an emphatic vote for change in Hull. We thank the thousands that voted Liberal Democrat today, they sent a message no one can ignore." Labour leader Cllr Daren Hale blamed the defeat on the Tory vote "collapsing" in parts of the city and said: "That's effectively an anti-Labour vote so it's gone to the Lib Dems in a number of wards." Elsewhere in Yorkshire, Sheffield Council today remains in no overall control for the second year running. The three main parties played a political game of cards as they traded seats with each other but there was no winner taking all. The count, at the English Institute of Sport, did have some drama and a very delayed start after police were called to a polling station, writes Local Democracy Reporter Lucy Ashton.  Oldham leader slams 'dehumanising' campaign as she loses seat Arooj Shah, who became leader of Oldham council last year The first female Muslim council leader in the North said she was 'dehumanised' by a deliberate 'smear campaign' after she became the second Labour leader of Oldham Council to lose their seat in as many years. Arooj Shah, who was first elected to the council in 2012, became leader in May 2021 after her predecessor Sean Fielding lost his seat in that year's election. She lost her Chadderton South seat by just 96 votes to Tory Robert Barnes. Speaking to the Manchester Evening News after the result was announced, Shah slammed what she described as a 'really personal campaign'. Elsewhere, Stockport swung further to the Lib Dems but remains in no overall control. The Lib Dems now have 28 seats, an increase of two, with Labour on 25, making it harder for Labour to retain the leadership of the council. Bolton Council - the only borough in Greater Manchester controlled by the Tories - remains in no overall control. The Conservatives gained a seat, while Labour increased their tally by two, on a frustrating night for Labour as they failed to live up to high expectations. On Merseyside, Wirral's Labour group lost two seats to the Greens and one to the Tories on a tough night that left the council in an even more precarious position.  Highs and lows across the North East Labour councillors celebrate in Newcastle after the party retained its dominant position Labour celebrated a positive election night in Newcastle, retaining its dominant position in the city after losing just one seat. There were fears the party could end up losing control of Sunderland, a council it has run since 1973. But on the night Labour kept its majority and lost just one seat, to the Liberal Democrats, who also gained a second seat from the Conservatives. Labour also retained its majority control on South Tyneside, despite a loss of four seats. In North Tyneside Conservative group leader, Sean Brockbank, lost his ward of Monkseaton South to Labour candidate Martin Murphy after the late arrival of thousands of postal votes saw the count go on well into the early hours of the morning. The Conservatives celebrated a solid election performance in Hartlepool after adding to their collection of council seats - taking the total to 15. It means no party still has overall control of Hartlepool Council, which will continue to be led by a coalition between independent and Conservative councillors. Among those elected for the Tories was Gordon Cranney, who pleaded guilty to a charge of assault by beating at Teesside Magistrates' Court earlier this year.  What do the results mean? Professor Rob Ford gives his insight Prof Rob Ford said the results will set the tone for the summer recess Should today's local election results be looked at in isolation or do they tell us a wider story about the performance of Sir Keir Starmer, Boris Johnson and Ed Davey? Rob Ford, Professor of Political Science at the University of Manchester, tells us: "It's always very hard to read the tea leaves on local elections because firstly, voters don't vote entirely on the basis of national politics, it's also on the basis of local specific issues. "But when we're interpreting local election results, the primary lens we want to interpret them through is assessing party performances at the national level and what this might mean for a General Election. "But everything always has to be caveated, some places will behave in a way that reflects local issues, some places won't. "The second complication in England, at least, is you never get everyone voting at once in local elections, it's always a different portion of the map. "This time, the complicating factor is that the portion of the map up is quite strongly Labour leaning. That means it's actually relatively hard for Labour to make large numbers to seat gains. "So long story short is that Labour could make quite a big advance in votes, but not take many seats, which will then lead to a real arm wrestle in terms of interpreting the results." To declare success, Prof Ford said Sir Keir needed to show "recovery in the leave voting areas of England". He said: "That is disproportionately where the battleground seats, the swing seats of the general election will be so if they go up by five points in London, but they don't go up at all in the leave voting bits of non metro England that's a bad night." Prof Ford said today's results would likely "set the narrative for how the parties will talk to themselves over the summer recess and how they feel about going into conferences".  Demand for female sex hormones soars after Davina's documentary Davina McCall's Sex, Mind and Myths, aired on Channel 4 in May 2021 A surge in demand for overstretched HRT supplies across the North is "inevitable" after Davina McCall's latest documentary put the menopause back into the spotlight. Demand for hormone replacement therapy (HRT) increased almost overnight following Ms McCall's first programme about the menopause, Davina McCall, Sex, Mind and Myths, aired on Channel 4 in May 2021. Figures from Open Prescribing show there were 98,190 prescriptions for female sex hormones and their modulators issued in the North that month, but prescriptions then increased by 13% in June, to 111,122, writes Richard Ault of Reach's Data Unit. Demand continued to rise in the months immediately following the documentary, peaking at 138,195 prescriptions in December - a 41% increase on the monthly count of prescriptions before the original documentary was shown. Now, after Ms McCall's follow-up documentary - Davina McCall, Sex, Mind and the Menopause - aired on Monday, campaigners are expecting a new surge in demand for supplies, as many women are expected to seek HRT from their GPs for the first time. That is in spite of UK shortages which have been labelled a "national disgrace"  Grant Shapps slapped down over rail plan comments Grant Shapps is also responsible for the Northern Powerhouse in Boris Johnson's cabinet Transport Secretary Grant Shapps has been slapped down for claiming the Government's multi-billion pound rail plan is a win for the North. Mr Shapps, appearing before the transport select committee last week, said the the £96 billion Integrated Rail Plan (IRP) would slash journey times across the North and said to suggest otherwise was "disingenuous". But former shadow rail minister and York Central MP Rachael Maskell has dismissed the comment. She told the Northern Agenda podcast: "If you live in places like Yorkshire or the North East, then clearly you lost out. "The proposed journey times that would have come forward with HS2 and Northern Powerhouse Rail will not be delivered and they clearly will be longer than predicted. So of course people are very frustrated, that promise has been broken."  Sign up to The Northern Agenda Has a friend forwarded you this edition of The Northern Agenda? You can sign up to receive the latest email newsletter direct to your inbox every weekday by clicking on this link. |